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Premier League Betting and Odds

Arsenal transfers: do we spend enough? 20 players currently being tipped

By Sir Hardly Anyone

Does Arsenal spend enough each summer on new players?  According to the media the answer universally is “no,” in that for every 100 players they tip Arsenal to be looking at buying, or indeed in many cases actually buying, we only get three, often showing no interest in the player whatsoever.

But how do we compare with other clubs when it comes to spending?   This table from Football Observatory gives a clue.  It shows the spending on and income from player transactions over the last ten years. 

Club Expenditure Income Balance
Manchester United 1545 M€  470 M€ -1075 M€
Manchester City 1699 M€ 715 M€ -984 M€
Arsenal 1029 M€ 446 M€ -470 M€
Everton 911 M€ 482 M€ -429 M€
Aston Villa 701 M€ 277 M€ -424 M€
Chelsea 1614 M€ 1201  M€ -413 M€

What that table suggests is that simply spending money doesn’t actually buy success.   It can do of course – as with Manchester City, but it is not guaranteed – Manchester United have in fact won the league just once in the last ten years, while Manchester City have won it five times and Chelsea twice.  Everton and Villa rather carelessly don’t seem to have won it at all.

Indeed there must be a certain amount of unhappiness at Everton and Aston Villa over all that money spent.  As a result of that money Everton have been FA Cup runners up once, and as for Villa, nothing since the Intertoto Cup in 2008.

Thus money spent on transfers helps but doesn’t guarantee success, but still the media make transfers their prime talking point.   But, as we’ve often pointed out that rarely does the media get 3% of the rumours right, and as we can see here, that is only half the story.  Spending money on transfers itself isn’t a guarantee of success, because selling players is also important.

The top three selling clubs are Chelsea (1201 M€), Liverpool (781 M€) and Manchester City (715 M€).

It is having the nerve and the money to keep on dealing in the players that gives those three clubs success.  The ceaseless refreshing of the team, and willingness (and finance) to take risks based on the notion that transfer costs will continue to escalate, is what gives them the edge.   

But that approach is a risk, because although prices have continued to escalate one day the market will implode, since the value of players is only notional.   Manchester City and (until now) Chelsea have been able to take that risk.   Liverpool are confident in their manager and so are carrying on.  Clearly Arsenal are also in that category now as well, given the spending we made last summer.

So we turn to the players Arsenal are expected to buy this season, according to the pundits.  There will of course be many more to be added in days to come.

I should add, the window is not yet open.  It opens on 9 June, with June transfers being formalised on 1 July.

No Player Source Club Notes
1 Armando Broja Mirror, Caught Offside Chelsea (loan at Southampton) Forward
2 Dominic Calvert-Lewin Express, Mirror, Mail Everton Forward
3 Reyes Cleary Foot365, Canon. WBA 17 year old forward
NEW Phillipe Coutinho Mirror, Give Me Sport Aston Villa £33.57m
NEW Danilo Teamtalk Leeds Defensive midfield
6 Jonathan David Express, Mirror, Foot365, PBR Lille Forward; agent confirms he’s leaving
7 Joao Felix Football London, Daily Canon, HITC Atletico Madrid Replace Lacazette
NEW Erling Haaland HITC, Sky, Express Borussia Dortmund Age 21.  £250m
Update Alexander Isak Express, Mirror, Real Sociedad Forward, £75 release clause
NEW Robert Lewandowski Express Bayern Munich Striker
11 Jesper Lindstrom HITC Eintracht Frankfurt Attacking midfield
12 Lautaro Martinez Caught Offside Inter Milan Forward. WHU interested
Update Darwin Nunez Mirror, Standard, Express Benfica. £67m Forward
14 Lucas Paqueta Hard Tackle Lyon PSG, At Madrid also want him
15 Yeremy Pino HITC Villarreal Release clause worth €80m.  Forward
NEW Michael Olise HITC Crystal Palace £24m
17 Marcus Rashford 90 Min, HITC, TalkSport, Daily Cannon. Man U Forward
18 Sergi Roberto Football London Barcelona Right back
19 Renato Sanches Sun, Mirror, Sports Mole Lille Midfield.  Juventus want him
20 Djed Spence Hard Tackle Middlesborough on loan at Forest Full back

Leaving Arsenal

No Player Source Club Notes
1 Dan Ballard News at Den Millwall Loan
2 Eddie Nketiah Evening Standard Crystal Palace

Only 20 so far on our list but plenty more out there waiting to be added.

2 comments to Arsenal transfers: do we spend enough? 20 players currently being tipped

  • both saliba and guendouzi are in the french squad; one is 21, the other 23
    torreira is doing great in italy, he’s only 26
    reiss looks like he’s finally been finding his feet in rotterdam, he’s 22
    we’ll be back in europe next season, in the “Europa L. ” at least, so our thin squad will need additions that’s for sure
    but these four lads are still ours – what’d be the point of spending millions on other players i wonder??
    all the more so since okonkwo, norton-cuffy, salah-eddine, hutchinson, flores, biereth, patino, … balogun of course are ready to jump in at the first oportunity
    the group has found a style they believe in, their togetherness in difficult moments is outstanding; let’s give ’em a little stability, greater cohesion will follow, and the trophies will start piling up

  • Chris

    @Le Gall,

    I’m all with you. All loanee are getting games under the belt and building up on experience on the field and not on the bench. Their loaning was a good move I believe. And it allowed the youngsters to be in charge and get experience as well. Edu and Arteta definitely know what they are doing in terms of managing the sqau, IMHO.

    And all fans should be aware this is a rejuvenation that will take a couple of years before the team can challenge the top clubs. One step at a time is the mantra and we ought not to be impatient now. The more so that we are seeing enjoyable games.

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