GoonerNews

Arsenal News

Live Arsenal News

Arsenal latest news

Arsenal News & Transfers
As featured on NewsNow: Arsenal newsArsenal News 24/7

Arsenal News, Only Arsenal, Blogs, Transfer News

Archives

May 2022
M T W T F S S
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031  
Arsenal News
The Soccerlinks Hit List
May 2022
M T W T F S S
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031  

Link Refer

Archives

e-soccer
Premier League Betting and Odds

Are Arsenal really heading for fourth or could it all go wrong?

By Sir Hardly Anyone

The media has gone into a mini-frenzy of late suggesting that it is far from certain that Arsenal will get fourth spot, because of the difficult nature of the games that they have yet to play.

In an earlier article I tried to show that this is far from being right, and that based on recent results and form, Arsenal were in a good place to come fourth.

But the media is continuing its negative view so I have been looking at this a different way, by asking, “How many points does it take to get to fourth by the end of the season?”

Here is a list of the clubs that came in fourth each year from 2014 onward, with the final column showing the points achieved by the fifth-placed team.  The first line is the current situation with Arsenal having played 28 games, that is with ten games to go.

The first thing to notice is the Pts column, which shows that the number of points required to get to the “not a trophy” position (as those who forced Mr Wenger out of the club used to call it), is very varied.  Anything from 66 to 79 was achieved by the team in fourth. 79 points would require 23 more points from ten games – quite a demanding run in.  Although still possible.

Year Team W D L F A GD Pts 5th
2022 Arsenal (P28) 17 3 8 44 31 13 54 51*
2021 Chelsea 19 10 9 58 36 22 67 66
2020 Chelsea 20 6 12 69 54 15 66 62
2019 Tottenham Hots 23 2 13 67 39 28 71 70
2018 Liverpool 21 12 5 84 38 46 75 70
2017 Liverpool 22 10 6 78 42 36 76 75
2016 Manchester Ci 19 9 10 71 41 30 66 66
2015 Manchester Un 20 10 8 62 37 25 70 64
2014 Arsenal 24 7 7 68 41 27 79 72

*Arsenal have one game in hand.

So we can see that while 66 points was enough to get Manchester City into the Champions League in 2016, that would not have been enough to get the club into 5th in 2014, 2017, 2018, or 2019.

Looking at this table if we really want to be safe in getting fourth we need to aim for 76 points since no fifth-placed team has got 76 points in the seasons we are looking at.  That means 22 more points in the last ten games.  Possible but very tough.

But another way of looking at this is to ask, where was the team that eventually came fourth-placed, after 28 games, in the past?

This table shows Arsenal’s current position this season and compares it with the clubs that came fourth in earlier seasons…

Pos Team Pld W D L F A GD Pts
2022 Arsenal 28 17 3 8 44 31 13 54
2021 Chelsea 28 14 8 6 44 25 19 50
2020 Chelsea 28 13 6 9 47 39 8 45
2019 Tottenham Hotspur 28 20 0 8 55 29 26 60
2018 Liverpool 28 16 9 3 65 32 33 57
2017 Liverpool 28 16 7 5 60 35 25 55
2016 Manchester City 28 15 5 8 52 31 21 50
2015 Manchester United 28 15 8 5 47 26 21 53
2014 Arsenal 28 18 5 5 52 28 24 59

So this season we have 54 points while sitting in fourth place after 28 games.  In four of the last eight seasons that would have been enough to secure fourth place at the end of the season.

But it is also noticeable just how varied is the number of points required to get fourth.  Chelsea’s 45 points in 2020 after 28 games really is correct and was caused in part by the runaway success of Liverpool that season.   Here’s the table with Chelsea on 28 points in 2020.

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 28 26 1 1 64 20 44 79
2 Manchester City 27 18 3 6 68 29 39 57
3 Leicester City 28 15 5 8 54 28 26 50
4 Chelsea 28 13 6 9 47 39 8 45

So, a lot depends on what other teams are doing, which is fairly obvious but rarely stated.  But it leads to a valid question.  What sort of season is this?

It is a season where the gap between second and fourth is 15 points after 28 games.  The last time this happened was in 2004 – the unbeaten season as you might remember.  Then after 28 games, the top four looked like this

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Arsenal 28 21 7 0 55 18 37 70
2 Chelsea 28 19 4 5 50 21 29 61
3 Manchester United 28 18 4 6 52 29 23 58
4 Charlton Athletic 28 12 7 9 39 34 5 43

Pulling this together, if we ask, is 54 points on track to make fourth at the end of the season, the key element in the answer is “what sort of season is this?”   Is it a season in which the league is stretched out at the top, as it was in 2004, and to a slightly lesser degree in 2020?  A season where the gap between first and fourth is around 34 points after 28 games?   Or is it a season where the gap between first and fourth is a much lower amount after 28 games?

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 29 22 4 3 68 18 50 70
2 Liverpool 29 21 6 2 75 20 55 69
3 Chelsea 28 17 8 3 57 19 38 59
4 Arsenal 28 17 3 8 44 31 13 54

Clearly, this is not a season like 2004 – the gap between first and fourth is 16 points.   Of course, nothing is proven here, but the evidence suggests that in a season like this we are not going to need to win every game to secure fourth place.

Nothing is guaranteed of course but I do think there is a lot of negativity going around at the moment.  But then it was always thus.  Certainly, if we carry on as now, we will be fine.  And even if we have a few slip-ups, I suspect fourth will still not be a trophy, but will be rather welcome.

1 comment to Are Arsenal really heading for fourth or could it all go wrong?

  • Mandy Dodd

    4th place, the media are desperate for Tottenham, and the football establishment would favour Utd.
    Arsenal have every chance of given a level playing field ,but we know the obstacles that will be put in the way . Mike Deans last season before retiring to ruin VAR, what chance they give him a last hurrah – Tottenham vs Arsenal with a predictable performance

Leave a Reply

You can use these HTML tags

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>