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Premier League Betting and Odds

Why the demand for a new high-scoring Arsenal centre forward is wrong

By Tony Attwood

According to an article in the Daily Mirror, for Arsenal “there’s a crisis waiting just around the corner.”  And that crisis is …

“After allowing Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to join Barcelona in February, the Gunners have just two senior strikers on their books – Alexandre Lacazette and Eddie Nketiah – and both of them are out of contract in June. It’s unclear whether they’ll stay at the club.

“Even if Lacazette and Nketiah decide to extend their respective deals, Arsenal still need to bring in more firepower up front. Mikel Arteta’s side have scored just 44 Premier League goals this season, the lowest amount among the current top seven.”

So let’s see if we can find this so-called crisis.

We know that for the opening three games of the season we really did have a crisis, with most of the team missing through covid and other issues.  Had this been Liverpool, then after a sneeze or two the games would have been off, but no, Arsenal were forced to play.

So, because these were the first three of the season, and because Arsenal are behind most other teams in terms of games played it makes sense to see what everyone has been doing over the last 25 games.  A current form table, over the last 90% of the season.

And because the Mirror has chosen just to talk about goals scored, and because, judging by this article (not to mention some other prize haddocks in recent months) I am going to keep this simple so that even their journalists might have a chance to understand.

This is the league table over the last 25 games for each club just showing the goals, goal difference and points.

Pos Team P F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 25 57 17 40 61
2 Liverpool 25 66 19 47 59
3 Arsenal 25 44 22 22 54
4 Chelsea 25 51 18 33 52
5 Wolverhampton Wanderers 25 29 21 8 43
6 Tottenham Hotspur 25 44 33 11 42
7 West Ham United 25 38 32 6 40
8 Manchester United 25 37 37 0 40

Last season with Aubameyang and Lacazette in the Arsenal team, the average was 1.45 goals per game.   Two seasons ago, with Aubameyang and Lacazette it was 1.47 goals per game.  So we have the picture – over two seasons Arsenal were scoring 1.45 to 1.47 goals per game.   That is fairly consistent.

And that was with Lacazette and Aubameyang in the team.

Over the last 25 games, without Aubameyang in the team for much of the season, the goals per game ratio has gone UP to 1.76 goals per game.  Aubameyang got seven, Lacazette has got six.

So this season with Aubameyang leaving and Lacazetter having got just half a dozen goals we have been scoring at a much higher ratio.

Now I am not saying that it would not be nice to score more goals.  But at the current rate and with Lacazette only knocking in a few and Aubameyang not present we will end up with 60 goals.  If we work on the basis of the last 25 games, thus excluding those first three games when we didn’t have most of the team present, we will end up with 67 goals.

Now I am not saying that this is enough.  Not at all.  But I am critical of the Mirror’s view this is a crisis that means we must buy.

I do of course realise that given the sheer and utter lunacy of most of the Mirror’s ramblings, their writers probably don’t realise that you don’t get points for goals.  But on the other hand goal difference can count, so let’s take a look at that.

And because I know the Mirrovians are simple folk, I will make the table as simple as possible.  This is the league across the last ten games showing just goals scored, goals against, goal difference and points.

Pos Team P F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 10 25 4 21 28
2 Manchester City 10 18 6 12 23
3 Arsenal 10 17 8 9 22
4 Chelsea 10 18 7 11 21
5 Newcastle United 10 13 7 6 20
6 Manchester United 10 18 13 5 19
7 Tottenham Hotspur 10 21 14 7 15
8 Wolverhampton Wanderers 10 14 11 3 15

Across the last ten games Arsenal have 17 goals just one fewer than Manchester City, Chelsea and Manchester United.  AND THAT IS A CRISIS!!!!

And since there are no points for scoring let’s look at the thing that can affect one’s position in the table: goal difference.  We have the fourth-best goal difference in the league across the last ten games.

But yes that is only the last ten games.  Let’s do the last 25 – so just leaving out the three games at the end of the season where, had we been Liverpool later in the season, we would have had the games postponed.

And would you believe it – Tottenham who have the greatest goalscorer in the history of the universe (according to the media)  – well they must have scored thousands more than poor, pathetic Arsenal because they have THE MAN who has got 22 goals this season.   Wow they must be top of the league because a top goalscorer is exactly what Arsenal need.  I know this because the Mirror says so.

But no, hang on Tottenham and Arsenal have each scored 44 goals.   And the Daily Mirror isn’t saying that Tottenham are in a crisis.  (Why is that?)

Pos Team P F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 25 57 17 40 61
2 Liverpool 25 66 19 47 59
3 Arsenal 25 44 22 22 54
4 Chelsea 25 51 18 33 52
5 Wolverhampton Wanderers 25 29 21 8 43
6 Tottenham Hotspur 25 44 33 11 42
7 West Ham United 25 38 32 6 40
8 Manchester United 25 37 37 0 40

We are still third in the league on points in this table, but hey what’s this, we are the fourth top-scoring team in the league, just seven goals behind Chelsea across 25 games.

As you will know, Arsenal has been progressing through the season, and the club is continuing to progress having brought in a new defence during the course of the summer.  Whether you look at the form table for the last six games or the last 25 games Arsenal has been having a good season.

Not perfect of course, but much better than the last two seasons – but (and this is the biggie) look at the points per game.   1.47 in 2019/20.  1.60 in 2020/21.  1.92 across all this season.   2.16 across the last 25 games this season.

Season P W D L F A GD Pts Pos PPG
2019/20 38 14 14 10 56 48 8 56 8th 1.47
2020/21 38 18 7 13 55 39 16 61 8th 1.60
2021/22 28 17 3 8 44 31 13 54 4th 1.92
2021/22 25 17 3 5 44 22 22 54 3rd 2.16

So this is progress no matter how one looks at it.   Last season with Aubameyang and Lacazette it was 1.45 goals per game.  Two seasons ago, with Aubameyang and Lacazette it was 1.47 goals per game.  Now we are running at 2.16 goals per game.  And the Mirror wants us to go back to the Auba Laca model.

Why does the Mirror want this?   Is it

a) because their writers have no idea what they are talking about?

or

b) because they know that Arsenal are on the right track and having a top scorer in the team like Tottenham have is likely to disrupt Arsenal’s progress – which is what they have been predicting for years.

I leave you to decide.

 

 

 

 

5 comments to Why the demand for a new high-scoring Arsenal centre forward is wrong

  • Zedsaunt

    Thanks Tony. The first chuckle of the day.

  • Les Martin (LeMmy)

    Those old reprobates at The Horror what are they like eh ?👍😉🍺

  • Chris

    You need to be able to pretend something is broken before you can pretend wanting to or suggesting how to fix it ….

    if only they were pretending refereeing is broken…

  • Dan

    Conveniently forgetting arteta saying we need 90 to 100 goals to compete for the title. Let’s give lacazette a 15 year contract. I’m sure Eddie will stay and score 30 a season. Meanwhile in reality?

  • bushido

    who cares about what mirror footy journo think plus transfer window is not even open at this moment. we can speculates all we want about Arsenal current attackers going to score enough goals for next season and a new striker will guarantee going disrupted the team because we are Spurs 2.0. i can also understands people who think about what happened if ( i really hate to say this) goal drought suddenly happened to our current attackers and god forbid they experiencing similar thing as Tomi right now. if that happened next season, we can’t get mad when the media start attacking Arsenal for not doing anything and the “we told you so” articles will pop up all over the media 24/7. so i understand both point of view and believe me whether Arsenal sign a new striker or not, there will be moaners from both sides of the fence. those who think our current attackers is enough to carry the loads for next season and those who think Arsenal need a new striker if both Laca and Eddie left the club. so just slow down a lil’bit about all this next season scenario and speculation cause Arsenal got 10 more games left to go

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