By Bulldog Drummond
The home and away figures of Arsenal and Chelsea return us to a sense of reality after the wild assertions that Refs give yellow cards because of the quality of the fouls committed which according to our correspondent “everyone knows” but which the figures show is completely untrue.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Chelsea home | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 26 |
| 8 | Arsenal away | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
Both clubs are eighth when measured with account taken of home and away performances as relevant to tonight’s game, but when we look at the goals it would seem that Chelsea should run out easy winners.
If we have a look at league matches since the start of the year, Arsenal away…
| Date | Match | Res | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb 2022 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v Arsenal | W | 0-1 |
| 6 Mar 2022 | Watford v Arsenal | W | 2-3 |
| 19 Mar 2022 | Aston Villa v Arsenal | W | 0-1 |
| 4 Apr 2022 | Crystal Palace v Arsenal | L | 3-0 |
| 9 Apr 2022 | Arsenal v Brighton and Hove Albion | L | 1-2 |
| 16 Apr 2022 | Southampton v Arsenal | L | 1-0 |
We can see how it was all going right and then suddenly all went wrong. As for Chelsea at home they have only played four league games as opposed to Arsenal’s six away…
Six goals scored nine conceded
| Date | Match | Res | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jan 2022 | Chelsea v Liverpool | D | 2-2 |
| 23 Jan 2022 | Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur | W | 2-0 |
| 13 Mar 2022 | Chelsea v Newcastle United | W | 1-0 |
| 2 Apr 2022 | Chelsea v Brentford | L | 1-4 |
So two wins, one draw and one defeat for them. Six goals scored and six were conceded.
But a modicum of hope returns if we look at the games between the two clubs. Overall Arsenal have had the better of things winning 80, losing 66 and drawing 58. The most recent games being….
| Date | Match | Res | Score | Comp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2018 | Arsenal v Chelsea | W | 2-1 | League Cup |
| 18 Aug 2018 | Chelsea v Arsenal | L | 3-2 | Premier League |
| 19 Jan 2019 | Arsenal v Chelsea | W | 2-0 | Premier League |
| 29 May 2019 | Chelsea v Arsenal | L | 4-1 | Europa League |
| 29 Dec 2019 | Arsenal v Chelsea | L | 1-2 | Premier League |
| 21 Jan 2020 | Chelsea v Arsenal | D | 2-2 | Premier League |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Arsenal v Chelsea | W | 2-1 | FA Cup |
| 26 Dec 2020 | Arsenal v Chelsea | W | 3-1 | Premier League |
| 12 May 2021 | Chelsea v Arsenal | W | 0-1 | Premier League |
| 22 Aug 2021 | Arsenal v Chelsea | L | 0-2 | Premier League |
We’ve won five of the last ten games, just one has been a draw and four have gone against us.
And of course the sad fact is that whereas before the last three games played this season in the league we were able to argue that Arsenal looked set fair to come in fourth and could even beat Chelsea to third, now we look to be struggling to get into fourth.
This gloom is not helped by our results against the other members of the traditional big six this season
In league and cup we have had nine games against our traditional rivals and won just one – that 3-1 victory over Tottenham back in September. We drew an away league cup match against Liverpool, and the rest have gone against us.
Chelsea on the other hand have had 11 games against the traditional big six (like Arsenal having league cup matches against the rivals) and have won five, drawn three, and lost three, so on this analysis we really don’t have much of a chance.
Of course all runs come to an end sometime, but that doesn’t seem to make them less gloomier, because it becomes harder to know when that end will come, and when it does whether it is a false dawn or not. But going back through the last 20 games of the clubs and just picking out the home games for Chelsea and away games for Arsenal we find something a little more encouraging…
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | |
| Chelsea home | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | |
| Arsenal away | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
It is, of course, every way we look at it, the last three defeats against weaker opposition that have scuppered Arsenal. And the most obvious reason is the combination of injuries and the youth of the team. There is no one there who can rally everyone and hold the defence together in the traditional manner of Tony Adams.
On the injury front the only news that we have is that Takehiro Tomiyasu is back in training, but it looks unlikely that he will be rushed back, given the length of time out he has had.
More later.
Well as far as my system for what teams chasing a top 4 finish need to acquire to achieve a top 4 finish it is proving very difficult for any of them to reach the required standard.
Since my last post on this Arsenal have fallen the furthest behind with defeats against Brighton and Southampton, where victories were required. West ham haven’t fared much better, dropping 3 points against Brentford and 2 against Burnley. Man Utd have dropped 3 expected points with their defeat at Everton. Spurs have also dropped 3 expected points losing at home to Brighton.
It has to be said that not one of the 4 protagonists for that final Champions League spot are covering themselves in glory. All the last few weeks have done is highlight just how far away we all are from Manchester City and Liverpool. I think a ‘Gulf’ would be a fair description.
Anyway what this all means is that we’ve put ourselves in a very tricky situation. Not impossible, but it is going to be tough.
Spurs are obviously now the big favourites for that 4th spot, but, and it’s a big but, if we can get a victory at the toilet bowl it changes everything, as long as we pickup all the points we should elsewhere of course, including what has now become our crucial home match against Man Utd.
But if we lose at home to Man Utd and away to Spurs I think the best we can hope for is 6th. Personally I don’t think West Ham can catch us, so the good news is, even if it goes even worse than my expected returns say, we should still qualify for the Europa League, which is still progress and probably what we need.
This is my revised required points returns and final positions:
This how I predict the points need to be gained:
HOME
Against the 1st and 2nd placed teams = 0 per match
Against the 3rd and 4th placed teams = 1 per match
Against the rest = 3 per match
AWAY
Against the top 4 placed teams = 0 Per match
Against the top 10 placed teams = 1 per match
Against the rest = 3 per match
As a result of that system this is how I see the run in unfolding:
It consists of H or A – Team and Current League position – Expected points return against them.
ARSENAL
A Chelsea 3rd = 0 pts
H Man Utd 6th = 3 pts
A West Ham 7th = 1 pt
H Leeds 16th = 3 pts
A Tottenham 4th = 0 pts
A Newcastle 14th = 3 pts
H Everton 18th = 3 pts
Total = 54 pts 13 pts = 67 POINTS
TOTTENHAM
A Brentford 11th = 3 pts
H Leicester 9th = 3 pts
A Liverpool 1st = 0 pts
H Arsenal 5th = 3 pts
H Burnley 18th = 3 pts
A Norwich 20th = 3 pts
Total = 57 pts + 15 pts = 72 POINTS
MANCHESTER UTD
A Arsenal 5th = 0 pts
H Brentford 11th = 3 pts
A Brighton 10th = 1 pts
H Chelsea 3rd = 1 pt
A C.Palace 13th = 3 pts
Total = 54 pts + 8 pts = 62 POINTS
WEST HAM
A Chelsea 3rd = 0 pts
H Arsenal 5th = 3 pt
A Norwich 20th = 3 pts
H Man City 1st = 0 pts
A Brighton 10th = 3 pts
Total = 52 pts + 9 pts = 61 POINTS
So my final points prediction is:
Tottenham 72 Points
Arsenal 67 Points
Man Utd 62 Points
West Ham 61 Points