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Premier League Betting and Odds

West Ham v Arsenal – the portents look promising

By Bulldog Drummond

The point of the home / away form guide is to give a much clearer picture of how the two teams have been doing, while taking into account the difference most teams have between playing at home and away.

Arsenal have, for some time, been third in the league table of clubs including only home games (behind Manchester City and Liverpool) but have spent much of the season lingering in mid-table when it comes to away games.   And if we look across this season, that still shows against West Ham’s home form.

Arsenal are now sixth in the away form table, but six points and nine goals behind West Ham’s home form.

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
6 West Ham United home 17 9 4 4 30 22 8 31
6 Arsenal away 16 8 1 7 24 25 -1 25

However, we should also notice that taking both home and away games across the last 20 matches played by both clubs, the form difference is much less striking – and when we just look at West Ham at home and Arsenal away within those 20 games (which by chance includes an even split for both teams between home and home) two points and two goals is all that separates Arsenal away from West Ham at home

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
9 West Ham last 10 home 10 6 2 2 17 12 5 20
3 Arsenal last 10 away 10 6 0 4 21 14 7 18

Indeed it is also worth reminding ourselves that across those last 20 games, and including both home and away Arsenal have been performing as the third-best team in the league.

This is a point we’ve been making for months now – just as last season Mr Arteta put in almost all his tactical transformations into the first third of the season and then let them roll out in the last two thirds with great effect, so the same has happened this season as well.

Here’s the last 20 league game table again showing home and away.

    H o m e   A w a y      
Pos Team W D L F A W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester C 8 1 1 33 10 8 2 0 20 4 39 51
2 Liverpool 10 0 0 27 2 6 3 1 19 9 35 51
3 Arsenal 6 1 3 16 9 6 0 4 21 14 14 37
4 Tottenham Ho 5 1 3 23 10 6 2 3 20 11 22 36
5 Chelsea 4 3 2 14 14 6 3 2 23 9 14 36
6 Newcastle U 7 2 1 13 9 4 1 5 11 16 -1 36
7 Manchester U 5 4 1 15 9 3 3 4 14 19 1 31
8 Wolverhampton 4 2 4 13 10 5 0 5 8 7 4 29
9 West Ham U 6 2 2 17 12 2 2 6 10 15 0 28

So the broader picture suggests these days Arsenal can well be a match for West Ham even when home and away are taken into account.   Added to which, Arsenal are totally focussed on the league while West Ham are trying to get themselves into a Euro final.

However, the results of the last dozen Arsenal games show a pattern that we have seen through the season with runs of defeats in August, November and January.

Date Match Res Score Competition
10 Feb 2022 Wolverhampton v Arsenal W 0-1 Premier League
19 Feb 2022 Arsenal v Brentford W 2-1 Premier League
24 Feb 2022 Arsenal v Wolverhampton W 2-1 Premier League
6 Mar 2022 Watford v Arsenal W 2-3 Premier League
13 Mar 2022 Arsenal v Leicester City W 2-0 Premier League
16 Mar 2022 Arsenal v Liverpool L 0-2 Premier League
19 Mar 2022 Aston Villa v Arsenal W 0-1 Premier League
4 Apr 2022 Crystal Palace v Arsenal L 3-0 Premier League
9 Apr 2022 Arsenal v Brighton L 1-2 Premier League
16 Apr 2022 Southampton v Arsenal L 1-0 Premier League
20 Apr 2022 Chelsea v Arsenal W 2-4 Premier League
23 Apr 2022 Arsenal v Manchester U W 3-1 Premier League

And looking at the last dozen games we can see just why Arsenal have risen up the table at times and then slipped back.  Eight wins, four defeats no draws.

The last dozen for West Ham show no such patterns with half of the games lost with just four wins.  Also because of the lack of European competition those last 12 games for Arsenal have been spread over three months rather than two for West Ham.

Date Match Res Score Competition
05 Mar 2022 Liverpool v West Ham L 1-0 Premier League
10 Mar 2022 Sevilla v West Ham L 1-0 Europa League
13 Mar 2022 West Ham v Aston Villa W 2-1 Premier League
17 Mar 2022 West Ham v Sevilla W 2-0 Europa League
20 Mar 2022 Tottenham Ho v West Ham L 3-1 Premier League
03 Apr 2022 West Ham v Everton W 2-1 Premier League
07 Apr 2022 West Ham v O. Lyonnais D 1-1 Europa League
10 Apr 2022 Brentford v West Ham L 2-0 Premier League
14 Apr 2022 O. Lyonnais v West Ham W 0-3 Europa League
17 Apr 2022 West Ham United v Burnley D 1-1 Premier League
24 Apr 2022 Chelsea v West Ham United L 1-0 Premier League
28 Apr 2022 West Ham  v Eintracht Frank L 1-2 Europa League

Interestingly also, Arsenal have scored seven in the last two games while West Ham have managed one.

Of course on the day (as they say) anything can happen but the portents look quite good to me.

On this day in Arsenal’s history: 30 April 1908: The end of the craziest Arsenal tour ever!

7 comments to West Ham v Arsenal – the portents look promising

  • goonersince72

    Hey Bulldog! Hope you’re right of course about Sunday’s match.
    With West Ham still alive in the Europa League I can’t help but look ahead a bit to next season when AFC will be playing in either the Europa or Champions League.
    Reinforcements are a must. Even in the EPL it’s been difficult to replace the starters on injury. I’d feel better about the run-in with Partey, Tomayasu and Tierney in the side. But, the team will play in Europe next season, it’s a young, exciting squad and this season’s results and overall play have been a pleasure to enjoy. COYG!

  • John L

    I prefer hope to expectation as a basis for optimism, especially with Dean playing for West Ham.

  • Mandy Dodd

    Dean! Really! Was expecting his retirement present being the ref for our Spurs game , so he could do us one more time, one more reward for a Kane / Son dive .
    Still expect him to get that game as well as this, if that’s possible?
    Hope you are right about the portents, but think this could be a tough game

  • I have a feeling that Atkinson will get the Spurs game.

  • mick shelley

    I do not think which ref we get matters that much they are mostly as bad as each other. They all have to curry favour with the same bent boss.
    I am sure the ‘screw Arsenal’ instructions from Reilly will be the same for whichever ref we get.

  • AndrewCrawshaw

    Good win by our Women earlier beating Aston Villa 7 – 0 at Borehamwood. An early brace by Miedema and second half goals from Corsie inadvertently putting into her own net from a Miedema shot coming back off the bar, a belter from Mead, wubben-Moy from close range, Blackstenius with an audacious neat post goal and parris with her 50th WSL goal from the penalty spot after she was fouled in the area.

    A late worry was Jordan Nobbs havng to come off with a knee injury only 12 minutes after coming on as a substitute. She looked distraught and I fear she might be out for some time

  • bushido

    wow what a bummer, Jordan Nobbs is so unlucky with injury this past couple of season. hope this injury is not to serious

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