By Sir Hardly Anyone
If you read our recent pieces about predicting results you will know we have been raging against the concept of Super Computers giving a prediction for their results. Super computers are never used in this way. See Supercomputer vs human predicting Arsenal next season. Both lose.for more.
Thus any article that begins by predicting where clubs will be next season because of a supercomputer, is in fact written by a fantasist who needs help.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t look and see what is likely to happen next season, using something far more effective than a fantasy supercomputer. It’s called a brain.
In the last article, we contemplated the mighty Leicester City. Now let’s try Tottenham.
One Tottenham site gives the top four next season as being the same as last season, so leaving Tottenham in fourth. Arsenal however are pushed down to seventh… below a resurgent Manchester sans Renaldo and Newcastle Arabic.
Football.London bringing in a man from ESports find however that Tottenham push upward
Spurs finished third in the Premier League (Image: Football Manager 2022)
If we compare this to the situation last season that set of results gives three of the top four much the same as before, with Liverpool making the extra improvement, Chelsea losing one point, but Tottenham gaining a massive extra ten points – making them the big winners.
The reason given for this surge is the manager – Conte is rated highly by just about everyone writing about football. But there is something of an oddity in Conte’s work. Three of his Juventus league titles were consecutive league titles after the years in the wilderness following their match-fixing escapades. At Chelsea, he won the league but was then sacked in 2018 at a cost to the club said to be around £27m.
Back in Italy with Inter he left after winning the league following arguments with the board over transfers for the coming season. He also got to be runner-up in the Europa League.
And maybe the club do have something going for themselves as they only lost once in the last 11 league games last season. However, earlier in the part of the season Tottenham did have a very soft spell and found themselves in seventh, three points behind Arsenal who had two games in hand. In fact it was Arsenal’s drop in form that then rescued Tottenham and allowed them to creep into fourth.
Also in that season, Tottenham were playing in the almighty Conference League, which they got themselves thrown out of by failing to complete a fixture. This season the fixtures will be tougher being part of the Champions League.
The reality is that having dropped out of Europe, between 5 January and 12 March Tottenham played 14 games of which they won six – one of which was against Morecambe and another against Middlesbrough. The other eight games were lost. That run suggests there is a weakness.
Of course, we know that Arsenal went through several such patches although nothing quite as disastrous as this, and Tottenham as the great winning machine were only that in the last two months of the season. Their record then was good; the question is, will that continue where they left off, and just keep winning and winning?
So far Conte’s record at Tottenham at 1.89 points per league match (and we may note, that is without the distraction of the Champions League) and has been far worse than anything he managed with Inter, Chelsea, Italy or Juventus. In fact to see a set of Conte results as poor overall as he achieved thus far with Tottenham, one has to go back to his one season with Sienna in 2010/11. Or indeed all his managerial jobs before that, most of which an extraordinarily short amount of time before he was moved on.
There is also the point to note that although all the journalists who comment upon Tottenham have been suckered into the PR about how wonderful the new stadium is, Tottenham’s home record last season in the league was worse than Arsenal’s. In fact their five home defeats was the worst of any of the top six.
Maybe now they will be used to the new ground and all its razzamatazz, and beer that enters from the bottom of the plastic cup, and certainly the run from 16 March to the end of the season suggests that is so. But… one can’t help thinking that someone doing the fixture list was givinig them a helping hand.
Those last 11 games which actually saved their season ended with games against Burnley and Norwich, and only included one top four game – against Liverpool. Now they have to contemplate a whole season.
Arsenal are Arteta’s team. He built it, sacked or loaned out players he didnt think he needed. His ego got in the way of his judgement. Bottling the game at Spurs twice (once with an unnecessary postponement and once with his team selection) gave a boost to Spurs. Conte worked wonders eventually once a team he inherited partway through a season got the method of play he wanted. They’ve pstrengthened since with Conte-style players. I know which club is going into this season the more settled in knowing how theyll play.
Hi, spurs fan here, done decent analysis and you don’t let your bias affect the article too much. Though as the previous content suggests, the squad really improved as a result of the conte training regime. The team went from having run the least distance out of any premieleague team (and failing to register any shots on target for a number of hours!) to being near the top of those charts.
The matches towards the end of the seaon, coupled with the performances against Liverpool and city, suggests the team is clicking.
With 5 subs next season the club have done some incredible work strengthening the team. Perisic and bissouma go straight into the starting 11, Skipp (our best player until his injury) returns, and there’s hope we may get a tune out of Gil, Sessegnon, Marr etc.
So it looks very good, but you never know.
Arsenal appear to be doing good business in the market too, though with Arteta in not quite certain whe he’s a genuis or just an imitation
Thanks for reading Chris, and for your comments. Certainly I would agree with your review of Tottenham – the latter part of the season was a dramatic improvement for your club. But as you so rightly say, “you never know”!
OT
I see the on the BBC website there’s actually a mention of the Blatter/Platini trial. Hardly what you’d call in depth though, just five sentences!
@Gary Fox,
It is interesting how when Arteta builds a team the way he wants it as manager – and I definitely think this is his damn right as a manager – his doing it is labelled as some ego trip.
Conte remodels his team, you label it as strengthening it Conte style. Well from my point of view, you could also say that Arsenal have been strengthened Arteta style and that Conte got his ego working, refusing to let Kane go and getting some players into a fully operational and efficient team, so efficient it had a marvelous last 2 months of the season.
The unnecessary post-ponement ? Who are you to judge that ? Part of the Arsenal management team ? A cockroach on the wal in Arteta’s room when the decision was taken ? His team selection ? Are you Mr Fergusson hiding behind some alias to be in any position to judge ? has Conte won all his games ?!?!
And I won’t even go into the ‘partway through the season. If I remember right, Arteta, taking over Arsenal partway through the season with some ragtag Arsenal team did get an FA Cup by playing the way Arteta wanted. So 1-Nil to the Arteta-Arsenal and a TOTAL failure on the part of Conte, right ?
It is furthermore interesting to point out that when Untold looks at the form ‘trend’, like 10 ou 20 games back, criticis say that it is the whole season that counts and all that writing is labelled crap…. but when it is about Sp*rs, well, Yeah they had a great season, look at the last 2 months – they will win the PL next year, be sure of that.
As for the ‘more settled’, you’d be screaming from the rooftops that Arteta has utterly failed if he did not sign 10 new players. And by the way, the core of Arsenal has stayed. Long term. Young. All that Sp*rs are not anymore.
Which all shows the hypocrisy you and your lot always find a way to spit out. It is not even an opinion. Just some vulgar double-judgement twisting of the facts. Best go back to the Sp*rs forums and dream of winning the PL on your Playstation.
perhaps the one thing the N17 crew have going for them is our beloved pgmo operating with all their usual charm and discretion
Jack is back. Great to see him, of all ex Gunners, come back to the Academy.
@Chris
For your info THFC’s season was NOT defined by the last 2 months.
It IS true FACTS that really matter & here’s one for youu – after Antonio Conte’s appointment in November, SIX months before season end, ONLY Manchester City & Liverpool gained more points.
Yes, it took THFC about 6 weeks to start performing in Conte’s image & had some shocking results but there was a dramatic turn around from where they were under Nuno.
Another FACT, Harry Kane was already 3 months into a season where the CLUB did NOT receive an offer for him as they’d refused to entertain any. Conte inherited him & was NOT even at the club at that time.
FACT 3, though as a Gooner you’d not see it this way, it was an unnecessary postponement. Arse-nal manipulated the rules to get a postponement for the NLD, but it was NOT their fault the Premier League f***ed up, which they ‘admitted’ by issuing clarity of the rules, making it clear that if that situation had happened again to any team, they would NOT have the match postponed for ONE (or was it 2?) covid case(s). But you’re right, Arteta’s team selection for the re-scheduled NLD (or any match) is his business alone.
I’m not daft enough to go along with any ‘supercomputer’ nonsense either & even my wildest dreams don’t allow me to envisage THFC winning the PL next season, BUT I would stick my head on the block & say THFC will improve upon last season & be closer in points to both Manchester City & Liverpool & may overtake Chelsea given the turmoil they’re in. Arse-nal next season? I’ve no idea (& definitely no interest) in whether they improve on last season or not but we all know the Europa League is NOT helpful in terms of league performances with the Thu/Sun schedule, constantly ‘playing catch-up’ & the added pressure that puts on a club.
The current Arse-nal model is a credit to them/Arteta but it IS that lack of experience that was their downfall last season, right? But what I see is a club that does not do what I remember (for far too long unfortunately) in having players of TRUE Arse-nal quality, the Adams, Vieira, Wright, Petit, Bergkamp, Henry, Pires, etc players that (& this pains me to say) made Arse-nal a great club for years/decades. As good as some of the current players are, their potential may or may not be fulfilled, nobody will know until it’s proven….or it’s too late!? & there is NO guarantee theyll all stay especially if they do not get top 4 over next 2/3 seasons, is there? As I said, yes it’s great to have your young, exciting players but as another FACT, the THFC squad has an average age only about 16 months older than Arse-nal’s & most are on similar lengths of contract left as players at your club. & both clubs will refresh their squads over the coming 2/3 seasons so all/any ‘football analyst brain’ can do is – wait & see what transpires over the next 2/3 seasons.
I shall ignore the last paragraph you wrote, not conducive to an intelligent discussion, is it?