Brentford away; high noon on Sunday. The prognostications

 

 

By Bulldog Drummond

So finally we have some football to think about.   There’s the women’s game against Brighton tonight (sold out, as we noted) but available to all as it is showing on Arsenal.com

We have previews of that game already on the site:

I also hope you might have had a chance to look at some of our background pieces, particularly as they show that much of what will happen in the league in the season is indicated by the first six games (Arsenal: the most improved PL team over last 44 games)

What we know about last season is that if we count the matches from match 4 to the end of the season, Arsenal were third in the league.  Of course I know the argument that the first three games were part of that season, but the fact that horror run was then replaced by a consistent playing style and approach is what we have been talking about for months and months.   And of course that consistency has now taken us into the new season.   Here is the table as it looked for the last 35 games of last season.

club  P W D L F A GD Pts
35 27 6 2 89 25 64 87
35 26 7 2 88 25 63 85
35 22 3 10 61 39 22 69
35 19 10 6 70 32 38 67
35 19 5 11 66 40 26 62

 

Add that to what we have done this season and the gap is closing.

Anyway we can now return to our regular home and away feature, looking at the two clubs just from the point of view of where the game will take place.

2022/23 P W D L F A GD Pts
5 Brentford home 3 2 1 0 10 3 7 7
1 Arsenal away 3 2 0 1 6 3 3 6

 

So as we can see Brentford have a better home record this season than Arsenal do an away record.  Although curiously Arsenal have the best away record in the league at this moment, ahead of Brighton and Manchester United who also have six points away, but inferior goal differences.

However to get a broader perspective we can see that last season Arsenal were the sixth best away team in the league.

2021/22 P W D L F A GD Pts
13 Brentford home 19 7 3 9 22 21 1 24
6 Arsenal away 19 9 1 9 26 31 -5 28

 

But curiously Brentford’s home record was not that good last season – and indeed not as good as Arsenal’s away form.

It is often said by those who make knocking Arsenal a major part of their lives, that Arsenal have had a very easy start to the season.  A quarter of our games each season are against other members of the “big six” but so far we have only had one of these (which we lost – away to Manchester United). But in fact that is how it should be – we’ve played six and had one game against one other member of the big six.

Of course the same applies to Brentford, and indeed they too have had one game against a member of the big six – a home game against Manchester United.   This came when Manchester United were in a bit of a state having lost to Brighton at home in the opening match of the season.  They lost their first two games in fact, and the media were gearing up for a re-run of the attacks dished out against Arsenal a year ago, but Man U pulled themselves together and won the third game.

Date Match Res Score Competition
7 Aug 2022 Leicester City v Brentford D 2-2 Premier League
13 Aug 2022 Brentford v Manchester United W 4-0 Premier League
20 Aug 2022 Fulham v Brentford L 3-2 Premier League
23 Aug 2022 Colchester United v Brentford W 0-2 League Cup
27 Aug 2022 Brentford v Everton D 1-1 Premier League
30 Aug 2022 Crystal Palace v Brentford D 1-1 Premier League
3 Sep 2022 Brentford v Leeds United W 5-2 Premier League

 

So Brentford are now fifth in the league having lost just one game so far this season – away to Fulham.  In the last three league games they have beaten Leeds and drawn with Everton and Crystal Palace.   And indeed they have actually scored one more goal than Arsenal but have conceded two more.

All the pundits will be utterly desperate for an Arsenal defeat and wins in forthcoming games for Chelsea and Liverpool as they all, seemingly without exception predicted a season that would end with Manchester City at the top, followed by Liverpool, then Chelsea and then Tottenham Ho.

At the moment the table reads:

CLUB P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Arsenal 6 5 0 1 14 7 7 15
2 Manchester City 6 4 2 0 20 6 14 14
3 Tottenham Hotspur 6 4 2 0 12 5 7 14
4 Brighton and Hove Albion 6 4 1 1 11 5 6 13

 

…so nought out of four thus far.  But there’s a long way to go.  We’ll keep an eye on it.

More anon…

 

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