- Just how much are PL referees bias in favour of home teams?
- What the pundits predicted for WHU and what happened?
Michael Oliver is one of only three referees who has overseen 12 games this season. The average for a PGMO referee is 7.3 league games so far in 2022/23.
| Referee | Apps | Fouls pg | Fouls/Tackles | Yel pg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Oliver | 12 | 19.58 | 0.60 | 3.25 |
| Average by refs | 7.3 | 21 | 0.63 | 3.75 |
When it comes to games this season 72 have been home wins, 40 games have been away wins, and 34 have been draws. In percentage terms that reads
| Home wins | Away wins | Draws | |
| Across the league | 49.3% | 27.4% | 23.3% |
| Michael Oliver | 58.3% | 41.7% | 0.0% |
Now these are very screwy numbers. Oliver tends to give more home wins than the league average – which means he is by and large affected by the home crowd, as we have discussed many times on this site, and we indeed presented a lot of statistical evidence from the period of no crowds, to back up. If you missed it you may like to read
Oliver is not the worst in this regard – Paul Tierney has overseen 66.7% home wins – and just compare that with Anthony Taylor who has refereed the same number of Premier League
| Referee | Apps | HomeWin% | AwayWin% | Draw% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall pl average…. | 49.3% | 27.4% | 23.3% | |
| 1.Michael Oliver | 12 | 58.3 | 41.7 | 0.0 |
| 2.Paul Tierney | 12 | 66.7 | 25.0 | 8.3 |
| 3.Anthony Taylor | 12 | 25.0 | 41.7 | 33.3 |
| 4.Simon Hooper | 10 | 80.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 |
| 5.Stuart Attwell | 9 | 55.6 | 22.2 | 22.2 |
| 6.Andy Madley | 9 | 44.4 | 22.2 | 33.3 |
| 7.Robert Jones | 9 | 66.7 | 22.2 | 11.1 |
| 8.Craig Pawson | 8 | 25.0 | 50.0 | 25.0 |
| 9.John Brooks | 7 | 42.9 | 14.3 | 42.9 |
| 10.Darren England | 7 | 57.1 | 14.3 | 28.6 |
| 11.Peter Bankes | 7 | 42.9 | 14.3 | 42.9 |
| 12.Michael Salisbury | 7 | 71.4 | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| 13.David Coote | 7 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 0.0 |
| 14.Jarred Gillett | 7 | 14.3 | 42.9 | 42.9 |
The point is we don’t expect referees slavishly to follow the averages but to find referees who range from zero away wins up to 57.1% away wins suggests that something in terms of consistency is not right. We know about the influence of the crowd, from the pandemic figures, but this is surely getting ridiculous.
One final point for now. During the past 15 years Arsenal games against West Ham have been quite good fun. The era has seen 30 games, in which five were draws, two were West Ham victories and 23 were Arsenal wins. Long may it continue.
| Date | Match | Res | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2007 | West Ham United v Arsenal | W | 0-1 | Premier League |
| 01 Jan 2008 | Arsenal v West Ham United | W | 2-0 | Premier League |
| 26 Oct 2008 | West Ham United v Arsenal | W | 0-2 | Premier League |
| 31 Jan 2009 | Arsenal v West Ham United | D | 0-0 | Premier League |
| 25 Oct 2009 | West Ham United v Arsenal | D | 2-2 | Premier League |
| 03 Jan 2010 | West Ham United v Arsenal | W | 1-2 | FA Cup |
| 20 Mar 2010 | Arsenal v West Ham United | W | 2-0 | Premier League |
| 30 Oct 2010 | Arsenal v West Ham United | W | 1-0 | Premier League |
| 15 Jan 2011 | West Ham United v Arsenal | W | 0-3 | Premier League |
| 06 Oct 2012 | West Ham United v Arsenal | W | 1-3 | Premier League |
| 23 Jan 2013 | Arsenal v West Ham United | W | 5-1 | Premier League |
| 26 Dec 2013 | West Ham United v Arsenal | W | 1-3 | Premier League |
| 15 Apr 2014 | Arsenal v West Ham United | W | 3-1 | Premier League |
| 28 Dec 2014 | West Ham United v Arsenal | W | 1-2 | Premier League |
| 14 Mar 2015 | Arsenal v West Ham United | W | 3-0 | Premier League |
| 09 Aug 2015 | Arsenal v West Ham United | L | 0-2 | Premier League |
| 09 Apr 2016 | West Ham United v Arsenal | D | 3-3 | Premier League |
| 03 Dec 2016 | West Ham United v Arsenal | W | 1-5 | Premier League |
| 05 Apr 2017 | Arsenal v West Ham United | W | 3-0 | Premier League |
| 13 Dec 2017 | West Ham United v Arsenal | D | 0-0 | Premier League |
| 19 Dec 2017 | Arsenal v West Ham United | W | 1-0 | League Cup |
| 22 Apr 2018 | Arsenal v West Ham United | W | 4-1 | Premier League |
| 25 Aug 2018 | Arsenal v West Ham United | W | 3-1 | Premier League |
| 12 Jan 2019 | West Ham United v Arsenal | L | 1-0 | Premier League |
| 09 Dec 2019 | West Ham United v Arsenal | W | 1-3 | Premier League |
| 07 Mar 2020 | Arsenal v West Ham United | W | 1-0 | Premier League |
| 19 Sep 2020 | Arsenal v West Ham United | W | 2-1 | Premier League |
| 21 Mar 2021 | West Ham United v Arsenal | D | 3-3 | Premier League |
| 15 Dec 2021 | Arsenal v West Ham United | W | 2-0 | Premier League |
| 01 May 2022 | West Ham United v Arsenal | W | 1-2 | Premier League |
Not my favourite referee but not the worst either.
Merry Christmas to Untolder’s everywhere I hope itks a good one for yoy wherever you are and here’s hoping for a good three points tomorrow.
Could it be that the referees’ stats are actually subject to the games that they are allocated. I’ve not done any analysis on this but it seems to me that experienced refs are allocated bigger games between more evenly matched teams near the top of the table. Less experienced refs do not get allocated these type of games but are handed games that will not involve so much pressure. So a top team at home against a team near the foot of the table will probably result in a home win.