by Bulldog Drummond
“Thick and fast” is the platitude of the day, when talking about fixtures, and how quickly they come one after the other. But it does seem that we have only just started to get over the rather fine defeat of Brighton and Hove than we have to play Newcastle.
The reason of course was the world cup, and we had better get used to this sort of thing, because with the media refusing to criticise Fifa in any meaningful way, the mega-bosses know they can now get away with anything. I mean, if you can persuade football to stop mid-season and play in the middle of the Arabian deserts, what is ever going to stop you. A world cup every three years is already being mooted as Fifa aims to wrest Uefa’s remaining powers away from it.
So Newcastle it is, at home in the league, tomorrow. The battle of the top two in terms on form. And yes I know we ran this in the last article, but it is the key statistic ahead of this game for it is impossible to imagine two teams more closely matched in recent games. Here is the league table based on the last six matches…
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Newcastle Utd | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Manchester Utd | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 13 |
So if we can’t distinguish the two sides based on recent games what about their home and away form…
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal home | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 3.00 |
| Newcastle United away | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 1.88 |
If we were to take all these results as indicators then that would give us a 3-1 win for Arsenal.
But of course, I know that in predicting the Brighton match we got the score wrong, although the result right. We foresaw a low-scoring game; what we got was just the reverse.
Here the final column (points per game) suggests that Arsenal are doing almost twice as well as Newcastle away. But if we were just to look at the most recent games we would see that in the last five away games Newcastle have improved considerably, winning four and drawing one.
Further, if we look at Newcastle’s record of matches away from home we can see how they have picked up as the season has progressed with four wins and a draw in the last five games on the road.
Three of the games have been against the larger clubs in the league: a defeat against Liverpool, a goalless draw with Manchester United and a win against a rapidly failing Tottenham.
| Date | Match | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2022 | Brighton and Hove Albion v Newcastle United | D | 0-0 |
| 28 Aug 2022 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v Newcastle United | D | 1-1 |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Liverpool v Newcastle United | L | 2-1 |
| 01 Oct 2022 | Fulham v Newcastle United | W | 1-4 |
| 16 Oct 2022 | Manchester United v Newcastle United | D | 0-0 |
| 23 Oct 2022 | Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | W | 1-2 |
| 06 Nov 2022 | Southampton v Newcastle United | W | 1-4 |
| 26 Dec 2022 | Leicester City v Newcastle United | W | 0-3 |
Thus Newcastle might be good but they are not zooming above the bigger sides in the league on the road.
So yes, if we were to take the whole season’s results, it looks a sure-fire Arsenal win, but against the bigger clubs Newcastle are not that far ahead.
Arsenal have played other clubs in the Big Seven four times through the season (two at home, two away) and got three wins. Newcastle have played five such games, two at home, three away. They have won two, drawn two and lost one. The total goal tally is seven goals to six in favour of Newcastle.
For Arsenal in their four matches against the top clubs the cumulative score is eight goals to Arsenal, six for the opposition.
Putting all this together everything has the makings of a draw or just maybe a one goal margin in Arsenal’s favour.
Certainly, if Arsenal were to lose the media would immediately turn their attention to Newcastle as the new force in the land. But we should realise that even if Newcastle win, which of course I hope doesn’t come to pass, Arsenal would still be six points above them, with a game in hand, and more than likely a significantly better goal difference.
I believe this is going to be one of these ‘prove your worth’ match. To me Newcastle is now a top 4 team and Arsenal need to beat these teams at home at least, and draw rather then lose when facing them away.
There are 2 elements that make me hopefull :
1) youth of the squad with this ‘the sky is the limit’ attitude
2) squad history, whereas many of them Young Guns have been together for a while, are a family, are a close knit group, a few have grown-up into Arsenal, they are not just a puzzle of players built with a budget over half a season, even as there are additions that were made with a lot of money. But there is an ‘Arsenal’ backbone.
This to me means more cohesion, a common set of values (I believe we can see that in many of Mr Arteta’s choices) and this ‘we are going to prove them all wrong’ attitude. This group seems not ever to doubt. Remeinds me of Mr Wenger’s attitude which was to prepare his temas so they could face any situation and let them face it. This group looks like having been taught well enough that they can address any situation and find the solutions to win – even as their manager is jumping up and down the sideline all game ;=)
Reading the away matches history from Newcastle, if others say Arsenal have had it easy, well, same can be said of Newcastle then.
They’ll be a handfull but I am hopefull Arsenal will prevail.
To me the main thing is, whatever happens, to keep things in perspective. That 100% home record is the best home form in the league. It is something to be very proud of, but it’s a fact of life it wont last forever. It never does. For anyone.
This is the home form of the other top 7 teams we are measuring ourselves against:
MANCHESTER UNITED
Newcastle: Drew
2 Points dropped
MANCHESTER CITY
Everton: Drew
Brentford: Lost
4 Points dropped
NEWCASTLE UNITED
Leeds: Drew
Bournemouth: Drew
Man City: Drew
6 Points dropped
LIVERPOOL
Leeds: Lost
Brighton: Drew
C. Palace: Drew
7 Points dropped
TOTTENHAM
A. Villa: Lost
Liverpool: Lost
Newcastle: Lost
9 Points dropped
CHELSEA
N. Forest: Drew
Arsenal: Lost
Man Utd: Drew
Spurs: Drew
9 Points dropped
The point is it happens, even to the best, and not necessarily against the ‘top’ teams. So dropping 2, or even 3 points against the current 3rd placed team, who are equal top on current form, will not be a disaster, or anything to get our knickers in a twist about. But you can bet your bottom Dollar that’s exactly what the media will do, get their knickers in a twist, because as we all know, perspective isn’t something the media do.
So if we do drop points, it will be up to us, as Arsenal fans to do exactly that, and keep it in perspective. We must not allow the rabid anti Arsenal media assault that will surely follow, to derail what promises to be a very special season.
None of this is to say I think we will drop any points, but it happens……..to everyone!!!
Come on Brentford not sure why their second goal was offside
NORTH LONDON FOREVER
Come on Arsenal
1-0 win
I think that everything wrote was actually very reasonable.
But, consider this, suppose you composed a catchier post title?
I mean, I don’t wish to tell you how to run your blog, but suppose you added a title to maybe get people’s attention? I mean Arsenal v Newcastle United: the
top two in form teams take on each other | Untold Arsenal: Supporting the club,
the manager and the team is kinda vanilla. You might glance at Yahoo’s front page and watch how they create article headlines to grab viewers interested.
You might add a video or a related pic or two to get people
excited about everything’ve written. In my opinion, it could
bring your posts a little livelier.