Arsenal v Newcastle: the story so far
By Sir Hardly Anyone
Our referee for the game against Newcastle is Andy Madley, and that means Arsenal have a problem. Because A. Madley is one of those referees (not to be confused with R Madley, also a Premier League referee) who doesn’t give in to home team bias.
Now leaving aside the fact that of course we want Arsenal to win, and Arsenal are at home, the fact is that seven of the PGMO’s Premier League referees persistently oversee more home wins than away wins. Which may sound normal and natural until you realise that there are four PGMO referees who oversee away wins in 50% or more of the games they oversee.
So it is not as bad as it could have been, if for example, we had been given Chris Kavanagh as the referee, since 60 percent (and that is not a misprint, it is sixty percent) of the Premier League games he referees, end up as away wins!
But just think of the help we would have if the referee were Simon Hooper and not Andy Madley. Such is the lunatic bias of refereeing within the PGMO.
| Referee | Games | HomeWin% | AwayWin% | Draw% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Hooper | 12 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 |
| Andy Madley | 11 | 36.4 | 27.3 | 36.4 |
Now of course it shouldn’t be like this at all – referees should all be coming in with roughly the same percentage levels of home wins. But the fact that there is so much variation shows that clubs that are able to influence the PGMO into giving them a home referee when they are at home and an away referee when away, gain a huge advantage.
And of course, the PGMO may well say (if they ever say anything) that referees are assigned at random, but given their hyper-secrecy and the real oddness of these figures, the question is, what on earth would make us ever believe anything they say?
Still, they have the media in their pockets for they never discuss this subject at all, so PGMO must be quite pleased about that.
And so Madley it is, so let’s consider his figures – and compare them with a couple of other referees…
| Referee | GAMES | Fouls pg | Fouls/TackLES | Yel pg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Salisbury | 7 | 24.57 | 0.64 | 4.14 |
| Andy Madley | 11 | 21.82 | 0.67 | 2.82 |
| Jarred Gillett | 8 | 16.88 | 0.54 | 3.38 |
But what about home and away bias? Here our referee tends to give slightly fewer fouls against the home team, and he also tends to be harsher on the away teams…
| Referee | Apps | Fouls pg | Fouls/Tackles | Yel pg | Yel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Madley home | 11 | 10.45 | 0.61 | 1.36 | 15 |
| Andy Madley away | 11 | 11.36 | 0.73 | 1.45 | 16 |
So given these figures how do Arsenal and Newcastle compare in terms of their own record of tackles, fouls and yellow cards. In looking at these figures it is interesting to note just where Manchester United – who have recently crept up the league – are. They have 43 yellow cards, over three times as many as Liverpool.
But back to our game… Arsenal, continuing their Arteta-inspired revolution two seasons ago, are the third-lowest tackling team in the league.
| Club | Tackles pg | Fouls pg | Yellow cards |
| Arsenal | 15 | 10.2 | 1.63 |
| Newcastle United | 16.4 | 10.8 | 1.65 |
So on to our regular analysis
| Club | Tackles per foul | Tackles per yellow | Fouls per yellow |
| Arsenal | 1.47 | 9.20 | 6.26 |
| Newcastle United | 1.52 | 9.94 | 6.54 |
So by a series of modest margins Newcastle are treated more leniently by referees than Arsenal. They can put in more tackles per foul, they can put in more tackles per yellow card, and they can commit more fouls before picking up a yellow card.
Now of course, each time we show figures like this (which is in fact how the figures look for most games) the argument can be put that Arsenal have players who are less adept at producing clean legal tackles. And yet if this were so, surely we would observe it somehow, and surely the commentators who seem to pick up on every negative thing that can be thrown at Arsenal, would also mention this.
But they don’t which seems to suggest that there is a persistent, if small, tendency to penalise Arsenal defenders more than those of other teams.
It was ever thus.
- How some escape yellow cards but others are penalised for tackles
- The team that commits the most tackles gets the easiest ride
Howard Webb is likely to let the nonsense continue.
“it is interesting to note just where Manchester United – who have recently crept up the league – are. They have 43 yellow cards, over three times as many as Liverpool.”
Liverpool are currently 2 down at Brentford. Brentford have actually had the ball over the line 4 times but 2 have been correctly ruled offside. 1 unfortunately due to a goal bound shot touching an off side player.
Anyway, my point is, and hoping not to tempt fate here as it is only half time at Brentford, that this result will surely mean that 3 media favourites in the shape of Spurs, Liverpool and Chelsea are out of the title race? And I’m not even saying that because of Arsenal but they are 6, 8 and 11 points behind Man City, who will have a game in hand!
That leaves Man Utd. Oh Dear !!!!
My point being, just watch United stats improve as the love-in reaches it’s crescendo over the next few months.
I hope I’m proved wrong over the coming months. We will see.
Liverpool have just got a goal back so I may be proved wrong even as we speak?
Well I feel the English FA may choose a referee who can withstand the pressure of big matches but in the way round they may be trying to fix the match against the home team but my advice to Arsenal is to focus and play well by so doing they will force the referee to know that the whole world are watching premiership so any bias officiating will affect his career and his name will be marked bad to officiate international matches so what we need is fair play as we will be watching the game
Well this season it looks like it is the gift that just keeps on giving. Pool losing to Brentford. Well, looks like what so many deadwood reporters were labelling as easy games in te end are not that easy.
Wonder how long it will take for the deadwood press to ask for a change of managers at Pool! and Sp*rs….
Some of these refs dont want Arsenal to win. Martinellis disallowed goal against MU was legitimate.
The gunners were denied a stonewall penalty against MC last year.
Arsenal games against NU and MU will pit the defence against speedy forwards.
If the gunners lay sieze on the opposition,they could be undermined by a through pass .
Thats what happened to Pool in the Brentford game.
There are no easy games in the epl which is better than in Germany
where BM are winning all the time
Madley an away biased match official ? Surely not ! UA called it, and it came to be .
Won’t be too long before those ‘Arsenal indiscipline ‘ headlines make yet another appearance.
I understand Newcastle’s game plan which is ok if the robust treatment is a two way thing , but no . Madley chose to ignore a lot , and we all know why .