By Bulldog Drummond
And so onto the usual home / away analysis for the Manchester United game – something still unique to Untold I think, although it proves to be a very good aid to forecasting
|3||Manchester United away||10||5||2||3||13||17||-4||17||1.70|
Looking at this simple table Manchester United are indeed the third best away team in the league, behind Manchester City and Arsenal, but are absolutely no match for Arsenal at home. Arsenal are averaging not just 2.75 points per home game but also 2.75 goals per home against, against 1.00 conceded.
Against this Manchester United are averaging 1.3 goals per away game, while conceding 1.7 goals per away game.
That makes it look like 2-1 to Arsenal or 3-1, perhaps, but from these figures certainly not a draw or Manchester United victory. In terms of the season long form, something would have to go very awry for that to happen.
With this in mind Arsenal have no new injury concerns except for Mohammed Elneny who got a knock in the last game, and is unlikely to be rushed back. Gabriel Jesus and Nelson are the two long-term injuries.
With Manchester United however, the story is totally different. Donny van de Beek is out for the rest of the season, Carlos Casemior is suspended after five yellows, Anthony Martial is doubtful, Jack Butland can’t face his parent club, Jadon Sancho has a disciplinary action against him from Manchester United, Diogo Dalot is out, and so is Mason Greenwood and Axel Tuanzebe. All the details come from Premier League Injuries.
But as we have noted before Arsenal and Manchester United are the two in form clubs in the league – here is the top of the league taking just the last ten games played into account…
…thus showing Arsenal are only three points ahead of Manchester U across the last ten games. But across the last six matches only alphabetical order separates the clubs. Even the goals for and against are identical.
So if we can’t separate them in terms of such tables, what about their playing styles… Who Scored has some interesting statistics to reveal…
|4. Manchester United||30||14.1||48||52.3%|
As we know Arsenal are scoring more goals and having more shots than Manchester United, but it is interesting to look at the comparison. Arsenal have scored 40% more goals than Manchester United but only have 11% more shots – which shows that Arsenal have a much more effective forward line.
At the same time Manchester United get a third more yellow cards than Arsenal.
But now here is the thing that many commentators will never mention: Manchester United are the second dirtiest team in the Premier League when measured in terms of yellow cards. And if you find that hard to acknowledge given the way the media won’t touch the subject, here is the chart, showing that Manchester United have 166% more yellow cards in this season alone than Manchester City. For simplicity’s sake I’ve just shown the top and bottom clubs and the Big Seven.
|2. Manchester United||48||0|
|8. Tottenham Hots||39||1|
|11. Newcastle United||34||0|
|20. Manchester City||18||1|
But in case any of this makes us think that there will be anything easy about this game, the table we recently published concerning games against each other between the big seven shows that Manchester United unlike the much lesser Tottenham Hotspur, know how to play against other top teams. Here’s the Big Seven league…
Manchester United are doing a little less well than Arsenal, but the one defeat Arsenal have had this season has come from them.
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