By Bulldog Drummond
And so onto the usual home / away analysis for the Manchester United game – something still unique to Untold I think, although it proves to be a very good aid to forecasting
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | PPG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal home | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 2.75 |
| 3 | Manchester United away | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 | 1.70 |
Looking at this simple table Manchester United are indeed the third best away team in the league, behind Manchester City and Arsenal, but are absolutely no match for Arsenal at home. Arsenal are averaging not just 2.75 points per home game but also 2.75 goals per home against, against 1.00 conceded.
Against this Manchester United are averaging 1.3 goals per away game, while conceding 1.7 goals per away game.
That makes it look like 2-1 to Arsenal or 3-1, perhaps, but from these figures certainly not a draw or Manchester United victory. In terms of the season long form, something would have to go very awry for that to happen.
With this in mind Arsenal have no new injury concerns except for Mohammed Elneny who got a knock in the last game, and is unlikely to be rushed back. Gabriel Jesus and Nelson are the two long-term injuries.
With Manchester United however, the story is totally different. Donny van de Beek is out for the rest of the season, Carlos Casemior is suspended after five yellows, Anthony Martial is doubtful, Jack Butland can’t face his parent club, Jadon Sancho has a disciplinary action against him from Manchester United, Diogo Dalot is out, and so is Mason Greenwood and Axel Tuanzebe. All the details come from Premier League Injuries.
But as we have noted before Arsenal and Manchester United are the two in form clubs in the league – here is the top of the league taking just the last ten games played into account…
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 26 |
| 2 | Newcastle | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Manchester Utd | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Fulham | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 19 |
…thus showing Arsenal are only three points ahead of Manchester U across the last ten games. But across the last six matches only alphabetical order separates the clubs. Even the goals for and against are identical.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Manchester U | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
So if we can’t separate them in terms of such tables, what about their playing styles… Who Scored has some interesting statistics to reveal…
| Goals | Shots/game | Yellows | Possession | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Arsenal | 42 | 15.7 | 32 | 57.1% |
| 4. Manchester United | 30 | 14.1 | 48 | 52.3% |
As we know Arsenal are scoring more goals and having more shots than Manchester United, but it is interesting to look at the comparison. Arsenal have scored 40% more goals than Manchester United but only have 11% more shots – which shows that Arsenal have a much more effective forward line.
At the same time Manchester United get a third more yellow cards than Arsenal.
But now here is the thing that many commentators will never mention: Manchester United are the second dirtiest team in the Premier League when measured in terms of yellow cards. And if you find that hard to acknowledge given the way the media won’t touch the subject, here is the chart, showing that Manchester United have 166% more yellow cards in this season alone than Manchester City. For simplicity’s sake I’ve just shown the top and bottom clubs and the Big Seven.
| Team | Yellow | Red |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Fulham | 49 | 1 |
| 2. Manchester United | 48 | 0 |
| 7. Chelsea | 39 | 3 |
| 8. Tottenham Hots | 39 | 1 |
| 11. Newcastle United | 34 | 0 |
| 12. Arsenal | 32 | 0 |
| 19. Liverpool | 18 | 1 |
| 20. Manchester City | 18 | 1 |
But in case any of this makes us think that there will be anything easy about this game, the table we recently published concerning games against each other between the big seven shows that Manchester United unlike the much lesser Tottenham Hotspur, know how to play against other top teams. Here’s the Big Seven league…
| P | W | D | L | Pts | PPG | |
| Arsenal | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 2.17 |
| Manchester United | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 2.00 |
| Liverpool | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1.80 |
| Manchester City | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1.40 |
| Newcastle United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 1.00 |
| Chelsea | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.40 |
| Tottenham Hots | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.17 |
Manchester United are doing a little less well than Arsenal, but the one defeat Arsenal have had this season has come from them.
More anon…
Up Gunners
Watched Liv v Chel … a lot of misplaced passes…huff and puff and not much in the box.
Watching Palace and Newcastle…a dire match…two sets of athletic individuals who run a lot but don’t create anything. Newcastle only looks good when defending.
@GGG,
I concurr…watch both games. Was bored. Except good defending, I did not see Newcsatle do much. Even in the rebuild phase of Mr Arteta, where the defense was the priority, the game was still nice to watch.
Let’s hope for some fireworks tonight and a band of young gunners who step up to the challenge and play better yet.
I see it’s Martin Atkinson today. That doesn’t bode well.
Of the 33 referees we’ve had in the premier league only two have seen us with a lower points per game average. Excluding Darren England, whose only reffed two games, only one referee has presided of a higher percentage of Arsenal defeats than Atkinson.
47.6% of Man U away games have ended as a win for them under Atkinson, which is actually a higher percentage than wins we’ve had at home with him in charge.
No ref has given us more red cards. He averages 0.05 red cards per game against against Man U whilst giving reds to us three times as often (0.14).
At home, Atkinson has given us more red cards (4) than any other ref in Premier League history although he’s never given Man U a red card at Old Trafford despite reffing exactly the same number of home games for each side. He has only ever given Man U two red cards in total.
A little bizarrely, he gives us fewer yellow cards per game (1.52) on average whilst giving Man U 1.88. (Although I have no evidence for this I suspect it’s because he goes straight to reds for us whilst letting Man U go the whole game without but giving them a couple in the last few minutes so it doesn’t impede their game too much….although I may be biased!!)
I’ve got Anthony Taylor as ref with Marriner 4th official and Robothan on VAR . From PGMOL site .
I don’t have their previous record with us and United .
Atkinson retired at the end of last season but still worked for the PGMOL under Riley , whether Webb has made changes is not reported.
Arsenal’s PL record with Taylor is not so bad as I thought. P38 W21 D11 L6. We have won the last 7 when he has been in charge. Maybe not all doom and gloom.