Arsenal v Brentford: the psychological challenge

 

 

Arsenal v Brentford: the home/away predictions

• UEFA increasingly looking weak as European clubs propose a completely new approach 
• The Premier League action against Man City brings Super League ever closer

By Bulldog Drummond

“It may not have been their first loss of the season, but Arsenal’s misstep at Everton presents them with an unfamiliar psychological challenge.,,,

“… they will be bitterly disappointed to have fallen into Sean Dyche’s earthworm-infested trap. While one surprise defeat might seem like a bump in the road, two on the bounce would threaten a burst tyre. Unbeaten in the league since October, a run which has included impressive wins against Manchester City and Liverpool, Brentford will offer a stern test of endurance, even if they last beat Arsenal away in 1938.”

So sayeth the Guardian.  Moving on, Pain in the Arsenal has the headlnie “How to watch on TV”  There’s a bit of searching needed to get the answer within their learned article, but eventually it is there and it is …”TV channel/live stream? N/A (UK). ”  Ah well.

But we can offer the regular home/away prediction, although there is a slight oddity here, for Arsenal have only played nine home games this season – fewer than any other club.  Thus in the home game league, Arsenal are third behind Manchester City (played 11, 28 points) and Manchester Uniteed (played 11, 26 points).    But on a points per game basis Arsenal are top: played nine, 25 points, 2.78 points per game.  Manchester city are on 2.55, and Manchester United are on 2.36.

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts	PPG
1	Manchester City	11	9	1	1	38	12	26	28	2.55
2	Manchester United	11	8	2	1	21	8	13	26	2.36
3	Arsenal	9	8	1	0	25	10	15	25	2.78

 

Arsenal are also the only club in the league undefeated at home.  Which of course leads us onto the usual home and away comparison

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts	PPG
3	Arsenal home	9	8	1	0	25	10	15	25	2.78
10	Brentford away	10	2	5	3	12	18	-6	11	1.11

 

… Which makes it look like a rather one-sided affair.   But let’s have a look at the recent form…

As we all know after 13 games unbeaten in the Premier League Arsenal lost to Everton in the last match.  But Brentford have been on a decent run themselves, undefeated in the last nine with five wins and four draws.  Their last defeat was a 4-0 away hammering by Aston Villa.

Their victories in this run have come against Manchester City away, West Ham away, and then Liverpool, Bournemouth and Southampton at home.

This means if we have a look at the usually quite informative last six games table we see that the club has been doing rather well.

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Brentford	6	4	2	0	12	3	9	14
2	Brighton & Hove	6	4	1	1	15	8	7	13
3	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	12	6	6	13
4	Manchester Utd	6	3	2	1	12	8	4	11
5	Nottingham Forest	6	3	2	1	6	5	1	11
6	Manchester City	6	3	1	2	10	6	4	10
7	Newcastle United	6	2	4	0	5	1	4	10

So while on form across the last six games Brentford are outplaying Arsenal in terms of results, all the other tables show Arsenal still outplaying Brentford, and anything other than an Arsenal victory would be a surprise, not to say an upset.

More anon – although you might like to note that Paul Merson has sent Arsenal a warning about the importance of beating Brentford.  I thought you’d like to know.