Some refs give home wins, some don’t.
- Referee: Peter Bankes
- Assistant referees: Edward Smart and Nick Greenhalgh
- Fourth official: Simon Hooper
- Video assistant referee: Lee Mason
- Additional video assistant referee: Adrian Holmes
If you are a regular reader you will know our constant demand for PGMO to employ more staff, and ensure that each referee sees each time no more than twice in a season. In fact Peter Bankes is seeing Brentford twice in 20 days having refereed their game against Leeds last month.
But more to the point, Bankes has refereed Brentford 15 times in his career and has only seen them lose four times. He was the referee for the Brentford win against Manchester City, and Brentford have won four of their five away games that Bankes has refereed. And of course it is nothing but pure chance. We know that because it is PGMO, and commenting on the statistics they said, ” “
So what can we find out about this character whom the Organisation has foisted upon us?
|Referee||Games||Fouls pg||YelLOW pg|
|Bankes home team||11||11.73||2.09|
|Bankes away team||11||11.55||2.27|
So once again we can see the curious statistics that these PGMO employees produce. Bankes awards more fouls against the home team than the away team, but gives more yellows against the away team than the home team. Very curious.
Let’s compare him with the other referees who like him have overseen ten or more games this season… He is in fact third highest in the league for calling out fouls and the second highest for dishing out yellow cards. So we can expect an interrupted game!
But who wins the games? Well that is the question PGMO absolutely don’t want us to ask or answer, because Bankes figures are utterly outrageous. For he is the man who loves draws. In fact no referee who has overseen 10+ Premier League games this season has overseen more draws. Bankes has had draws in 54.5% of this games while Tierney has draws in 5.9% of his games.
What we can see at once is that Bankes is overseeing far fewer home wins than the average. But worse than this, while the national average for draws is 24% across the Premier League this season, over half of Bankes’ games are draws.
In fact with 54% draws, he is the Premier League’s draw specialist referee.
So how can this be? In a league in which 24% of the games are draws, how can Bankes oversee 54% of his games as draws?
Let’s just take two of these referees and compare them
|Referee||Games||Home Win%||Away Win%||Draw%|
To suggest that such a set of results for Bankes has come about by chance is just beyond belief – it is way beyond any sort of statistical quirk that one experiences in any other measure of events in life. It really makes no sense at all, unless…. but of course I cannot write any more because that would be to suggest something is wrong.
What PGMO would ask us to believe is that these results happen by chance – it just so happens that over half the games Mr Bankes oversees just happen to be draws while the national average in the Premier League is under a quarter.
And here’s another thing. In the years before the pandemic, the level of draws per season remained remarkably regular. It then went strange when crowds were banned from matches, and then returned to its normal level of around 24%.
As it stands Arsenal have an 11% less chance of getting a home win with Mr Bankes in charge, than they do with the average PGMO employee. That cannot be disputed, because that is exactly what the statistics show.
But to be fair, it is not just Bankes whose figures are weird. Just looking at referees who have overseen more than 10 games this season we can see that the percentage figures for home wins vary between 73.3% (Hooper) and 30.8% (Pawson). For away wins the figures range from 46.2% (Pawson) to 0.0% (Hooper).
In short, who wins the league depends on which referees the clubs get for their matches.
- There are seven PGMO men for whom over half the games they referee are home wins.
- There are two PGMO men for whom over half the games they referee are away wins.
- There are two PGMO men for whom over half the games they referee are draws.
You can of course choose to believe that is all down to chance. If you wish.
- Arsenal has let in one more goal than at this stage last season, and that’s a disaster
- Arsenal continue to make more progress than the rest of the big seven
- Arsenal v Tottenham; the team and some rather jolly recent history
- We are running out of referees, and the reason is the PGMO.
- Arsenal v Tottenham: the key fact the media won’t to tell you – and why they won’t