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Arsenal v Watford: the team (and the silly stats about runs and stuff)

By Bulldog Drummond

One of the interesting facts in the referee summary published earlier today is the comment that

The teams with most decisions in their favour are United (31) Spurs (25), Watford (23) and Leicester (21). 

While…

Arsenal continue to be the team most affected by wrong decisions against with 31.

Which means we are going to have to win and then win again in order to win, this evening.  But even with that need to overcome our disadvantage and their advantage we still ought to be able to get something out of this.

Looking at the statistics of Arsenal at home and Watford away, there is a significant difference in possession, as you might expect, so we can anticipate Watford conceding possession and backing off as Arsenal attack.

Indeed Arsenal will probably have twice as many shots as Watford during the game.   We can also expect a fairly high number of fouls to be conceded from Watford .  In fact the one area where Watford away out-perform Arsenal at home is in aerial duels won – Arsenal’s average per home game is 15.7 while Watford away is 19.5.

Anyway, our recent record is quite jolly, not that you would know it from the commentators in today’s press.  Mind you, looking at the type of comments reported in this morning’s post and not knowing the league table you might well anticipate that we just escaped relegation.

Competition Date Home Score Away
Premier League 26 Dec 2016 Arsenal 1 – 0 West Brom
W
Premier League 01 Jan 2017 Arsenal 2 – 0 C Palace
W
Premier League 03 Jan 2017 Bournemouth 3 – 3 Arsenal D
 
FA CUP 07 Jan 2017 Preston 1 – 2 Arsenal
W
Premier League 14 Jan 2017 Swansea 0 – 4 Arsenal
W
Premier League 22 Jan 2017 Arsenal 2 – 1 Burnley
W
FA CUP 28 Jan 2017 Southampton 0 – 5 Arsenal
W

Four wins in a row, six wins out of seven, 18 goals in the last six games.  Not conceded from open play in the last seven games.  Watford seven games without a league win, and no victory in midweek in the Premier League since before the flood.  Well since April 2007 to be precise.

To go back over one point from the last post, the recent record has been quite good… just one match gone wrong in the last nine.

Date Game Result Score Competition
25 Sep 1999 Arsenal v Watford W 1-0 Premier League
23 Apr 2000 Watford v Arsenal W 2-3 Premier League
05 Jan 2002 Watford v Arsenal W 2-4 FA Cup
14 Oct 2006 Arsenal v Watford W 3-0 Premier League
26 Dec 2006 Watford v Arsenal W 1-2 Premier League
17 Oct 2015 Watford v Arsenal W 0-3 Premier League
13 Mar 2016 Arsenal v Watford L 1-2 FA Cup
02 Apr 2016 Arsenal v Watford W 4-0 Premier League
27 Aug 2016 Watford v Arsenal W 1-3 Premier League

I am quite sure Danny Welbeck will not be given two games in quick succession so will be on the beach, or given a rest, while there is no clear news as to weather Giroud is ok or not.

Our recent form is quite encouraging too, with Arsenal undefeated in 29 of the last 32 PL games, eight wins out of nine against Watford (see above), lots of goals against Watford, lots of goals against everyone, and Watford in a bad run.

And just in case it does get a bit jittery, what with Watford getting all those decisions in their favour and us not, we have scored 12 goals in the 80th minute or later and an unrivalled six goals in the 90th minute or stoppage time this season.

And just one more at this point…

Alexis Sanchez has scored in all three of his Premier League appearances against Watford.

If Watford do lose it will be the first time they have lost their five opening league matches of a calendar year since 2002, when they were in the second tier.   While Heurelho Gomes has conceded 23 goals in eight Premier League games against Arsenal, nine more than any other team he has faced.

And so to the team.   I would go with…

Cech

Bellerin Mustafi Koscielny Monreal

The Ox  Coquelin

Theo Ozil Iwobi

Alexis

Lurking on the beach in that case we might have: Ospina, Gibbs, Gabriel, Ramsey, Giroud or Welbeck, Lucas, Le Jeff or Maitland-Niles.

The most obvious change from that line up would be to drop the Ox and put in Ramsey, and of course Mr Wenger might do that, after all he has at the stats that we never get to see, but then the issue is, what sort of a message is he giving to the Ox?  I think that Ox has just one more year on his contract, so that could be a pressing thought as well.

I would really like to see if the Southampton performance from the Ox was a one off, or whether he can turn it in week after week.

Anyway, whatever team is picked all of this should give you a clear view of not only who is going to win, but by how much.  And if you are just waiting and waiting for the game to start, you can always pass the time of day with All Jackpots casino

It looks fun.


Art3

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Arsenal v Watford 

Referees

77 comments to Arsenal v Watford: the team (and the silly stats about runs and stuff)

  • Gord

    Arsenal.com has a note up, about a road in the vicinity of Wenger Stadium being closed. Something to do with water main I believe.

  • para

    If Alexis can’t realise he should not play vs watford, at least not the full game, he needs to realise chel$ is due in a few days. So if he starts no doubt he will be taken off before fulltime.

    We can’t be silly because of egos now, time to get in the zone, this is it now. This is what we’ve preparing for, the last half of the season and games coming thick and fast.

    Come on Arsenal.

  • para

    Gord:
    Well if Arsenal appear drowsy and not concentrated then we’ll know the water pumped to Wenger Stadium was supplemented with something else. 🙁

  • Richard

    A nice preview,, personally I hope wenger gives the pc a chance to prove himself in that position. He has one thing over Ramsey and that is he doesn’t get knocked off the ball as easily as Ramsey who seems a little lightweight in this area. However should be a good match and with luck the gap between us and Chelsea will be down to five points.

  • Goonermikey

    Slightly disappointed about UA advertising gambling sites within the bulk of their articles now

  • Gord

    Starting lineup is on the twit thing.

    COYG!

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    Yes, Mr Drummond, because of our impending Chelsea PL game on Saturday, I quite agree to the notion that Sanchez should be taken off for Giroud at the halfway mark into this game to get some rest but on condition that the game is going our ways.

    Your starts are great. But if you permit me, I’ll like to do one or two changes to them because of our upcoming big game away to Chelsea where we’ll need all our pacy Gunners to be fully fit and not fatigued to start in that could be our PL title defining game of this season’s campaign.

    My starts:
    Cech
    Paulista Mustafi Mertasacker Monreal
    Ramsey Coquelin
    Perez Ozil Iwobi
    Sanchez.

    My bench:
    Ospina Bellerin Koscielny Gibbs Chamberlain Welbeck Giroud.

    Walcott played the full FA Cup match last Saturday against Southampton. So, I’ve to give him a game rest for this Watford game to keep his pace in optimal level for the Chelsea game. The same thing applies to Bellerin, Koscielny, Gibbs, Chamberlain and Welbeck whose extraordinary pace we will need at Chelsea. And of course the pace of Sanchez, Ozil and Perez will be added value to the Gunners starting XI team at Chelsea.

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    I’ve just seen Le Prof’s starts and bench for this our home PL game against Watford. Because he had Mertesacker on the bench at Southampton, I thought for his aerial strength, he’ll start him today but he preferred to start Koscielny instead. Hence, my Mertesacker to start is dropped completely out of the team of today. And I did not have Maitland-Niles on the bench for cover at our midfield base for this game but instead, is Chamberlain I have for that role.

    Arsenal 5-0 Watford @FT +.

  • Arvind

    I’m impressed with AW. He’s let Gabriel keep his place and not given Walcott a free pass in either. That’s not always happened in the past. Sad Gibbs doesn’t get a shot though.

  • Gord

    Horsefeathers!

    Come on Gunners, you can play in the rain!

    COYG!

  • para

    Sharpen up Arsenal, press like they press.

  • Yommex

    Warlord score off a deflected shot from a free kick at the edge of the box. Ars 0 : 1 Wat

  • Yommex

    Ars 0: 2 Wat. 13 minutes.

  • Yommex

    What is happening?

  • para

    Ox should have started

  • Leon

    Two nil up and Watford are still coming forward. Ramsey was involved in both goals and now he’s coming off

  • gouresh

    Bloody mountain to climb

  • Menace

    Behrami gets a pat on the back from Mariner after fouling Ozil. It is so damned blatant!!

  • Menace

    Every 50/50 contact is given to Watford. This cheating has no shame.

  • Al_The_Gunner

    is it some kind of “masterclass” from refs?

  • Leon

    Not making excuses but some of these free kicks Watford’s getting are a bit odd

  • Menace

    Behrami kicks Alexis & smiles at his mate Mariner – no card. The shameless cheating continues.

  • Al_The_Gunner

    just to show wenger and arsenal their place

  • Josif

    Bloody awful performance so far.

    Wake up lads, there is still 60 minutes for a complete come-back!

  • Leon

    Watford are playing like the home side. We can’t seem to make any impression on the match

  • para

    Watford really pushing.

  • Menace

    Gomis throwing with release outside the box. Not being picked up by officials or commentators.

  • SamuelAkinsolaAdebosin

    We’ve suddenly out of no where have 2 mountains to climb as we have fallen 0-2 behind to Watford within 3 minutes. But no panicking, we’ll climb the 2 mountains successfully and even decent down to the valley to have a good cool rest. It’s a match we MUST win.

  • Josif

    We have from this game as much as we have deserved.

    Come on, we need a quick goal at the beginning of the second half!

  • Leon

    The weather’s attrocious, but Watford don’t seem affected by it

  • para

    Different team from the one on Tuesday eh?
    Hope we can recover, signs are there but Ozil looks pissed off.

  • Menace

    Amazing game management by PGMOL. It doesn’t matter that Watford are getting the rub of the green, it’s the way that Arsenal get carded while Watford get away with nasty tackles.

  • Al

    Started watching from around minute 33, and it seems from every lucky bounce or block the ball falls kindly for Watford, and not surprising to see one of Watford’s goals (from halftime highlights) was a result of something similar.

    Seen a few questionable free kicks and throws ins in those 15+ minutes too. Is that Sian Massey I see on the far side? Anyway, think if we can pull one back in first 15 after the break we can save this match.

  • ARSENAL 13

    Yeah…That’s her…

  • Mandy Dodd

    The ref has let a few things go, but we have been poor, almost inexplicably so.
    Still time to make something from this game, but need a big improvement.
    This tactic of sitting back in early stages, hoping to take the sting and energy out of opponents before hitting them in the later stages is not working at times.

  • ARSENAL 13

    Ccooommmee ooooooonnnnn ARSENAL

  • Leon

    Oh yes!Starting to look much better now

  • Al

    Cheers Arsenal 13.

  • ARSENAL 13

    Ccooommmee ooooooonnnnn you Gunners

  • ARSENAL 13

    Iwobiieeeee

    Come on

  • ARSENAL 13

    Oohzil

  • Josif

    So much better after the break but that bloody rounded thing doesn’t want to go in!

    Come on! We need the first one to make things happen!

  • ARSENAL 13

    Yyyyyyyyyyyyeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrhhhhhhhhhhhh

    Ccooommmee ooooooonnnnn.

  • Josif

    GET IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIN!

    IWOBI! He looks like a different player in the second half!

  • Al

    Yes, Iwobi!!!
    But we should have got a pen a few seconds before that IMO. Will need to take a look at it again.

  • para

    yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

  • Menace

    Stoewall pen Al. The game management continues.

  • Vince

    Funny that the TV won’t show a replay of that penalty claim…
    Didn’t show either a replay of the “foul” that led to Walford opening goal

  • ARSENAL 13

    Come on Gunners fight hard…

  • Markyb

    Lots of that going on

  • Menace

    Whole yellow bus complete with green conductor ensuring the Red mist is not going to win.

  • ARSENAL 13

    Hahahahahahahaha

    Behrami what an arse.

    Looks at the board. Laughs. And then acts surprised.

    Book him for that…Time wasting.

  • para

    carefull dont lose control now.

  • Al

    Mariner should do something, he’s letting Watford get away with far toooooo much.

  • Al

    We’re getting shafted here…

  • finsbury

    David hillier (no shrinking violet):

    “The Lino had his flag up before the challenge by Koscielny on Cleverly!”
    There it is.

    COYG

  • para

    Fight lads, fight dont resign.

  • ARSENAL 13

    Ccooommmee ooooooonnnnn ARSENAL..

  • Menace

    Kaboul with arms round Kos & the blind bastard with the whistle allows play to go on. He does not come back to book a clear professional foul after playing advantage.

  • Al

    The lino on the near side and mariner are on a mission.

  • Gord

    Not much time left Gunners. Get that tie and go on to win please.

    COYG!

  • Vince

    Who wants to bet that Marriner will give only 3 minutes of added time?

  • para

    keep ball on floor.

  • Al

    What is marriner doing, busy telling the Watford player that it was a coming together instead of tending to Mustafi.

  • Josif

    First defeat for Mustafi.

    Terrible performance in the first half and improvement in the second wasn’t enough to save us at least a point.

    I really can’t understand why Iwobi – who had been tormenting their full-back in the second half and scored the goal from that position – was moved to the middle of the pitch where he was pretty ineffective.

    Let’s beat Chelsea now to keep the Top 4 place and focus on the FA Cup.

  • Gord

    Nice try Gunners! Let’s make sure the next one is a win, eh?

  • Menace

    Another win for the cheats. There were far too many select decisions. The cards will accumulate as well, but despite all this something is bound to happen that will open the can of worms.

  • Jammy J

    So many dubious fouls that were not given one single replay.

  • Jammy J

    I think we need to win on Saturday, otherwise that is our title hopes over. If we beat them, that’ll be only 5 points we need to make up.

  • Leon

    Are Watford becoming our bogey team?

  • Sid

    Missed opportunity, Chelsea draw and we can’t beat watford at home

  • para

    Don’t doubt it will be a tough game on Sunday, hope the right players play.

  • Gord

    I don’t see any “news” headlines talking about anything related to biased or incompetent officials. There is a headline, where Pierce Mrgan claims that he is human.

  • Jammy J

    Unfortunately, with Atkinson as the ref (as predicted) we will be playing against 12 men (once again).

  • para

    I miss the dynamic and determination of Tuesday’s team tonight. They were too unprepared, and i blame the players, but they recovered, only not quickly enough. 3 pts lost.

  • WalterBroeckx

    match report is on line