By Jack Beam
Arsenal have once again cemented their position as one of the most tactically organised sides in the league as the 2024/25 Premier League season comes to a close. Under Mikel Arteta’s evolved system, the Gunners have found a sweet spot between freewheeling offence and staunch defence. This balance offers an opportunity for bettors—one that is especially prevalent in the by in large ignored over/under goals market.
Arsenal are Solid Defensively
Arsenal have one of the league’s stingiest defenses, with under one goal per game being conceded after 36 matches of the 2024/25 campaign. The Gunners allow few games to descend into chaotic, high-scoring affairs, with 12 clean sheets and regular command of possession.
Looking at this defensive display, typically over 2.5 goals have been scored in these recent games. In fact, much of their recent games end in the close margins of either a 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 victory – meaning the under 2.5 goals market is particularly ripe for the picking from value hunters, especially against lower mid-table, lower table opposition that simply cannot find a way through. Premier League betting fans have plenty of markets to bet on, and can get more soccer over/under tips from Sportytrader expert analysts.
Match Tempo and Tactical Approach
Arsenal under Arteta puts shape, discipline, and possession in safe areas as vital components of their play, which converts into slower-paced games, particularly against top-half opposition. Arsenal don’t really get into shootouts; they like to control the tempo, and their efficiency will ideally be in front of the goal.
Arsenal almost never gets dragged into an end-to-end game unless they’re chasing the game. Except maybe for title rivals or European nights—but in most league matches, especially on home soil, the “under” bettors rarely lose.
Finding Value
It’s not only about betting “under”, the real edge lies in:
Against defensive teams: Even against the likes of Brentford or Nottingham Forest, teams that will inevitably adopt a compact, defensively-minded approach, it is tough for either team to find the back of the net. These are prime markets for under 2.5, or even under 1.5.
Home v Away Splits: Arsenal will be more cautious in home matches compared to away fixtures. It seems that “unders” are more likely at home, as Arteta’s side like to play controlled victories at the Emirates.
Game state expectations: It is only when Arsenal is in a must-win scenario (e.g., title chase or trailing in a Champions League knockout) that they will throw caution to the wind. Over 2.5 goals markets are probably worth exploring here, especially given the level of attacking intent Brighton will face.
Over Markets: When to Pounce
Nonetheless, providing the Gunners’ front three—such as Saka, Martinelli, and Trossard—are firing value can still be had in the over 2.5 goals market. The Gunners will often score early against tournament sides or sides that struggle away from home and lure the opponent out, which opens up opportunities for further goals in the later stages of the contest.
This season, Arteta’s side has also become much more effective against low blocks. Instead, they win games that would have previously finished 1-0 by 2-0 or 3-1, especially against the teams from the bottom half of the table.
Betting Takeaway
However, the context always counts, so if we take a look at Arsenal from the 2024/25 stats, that suggests the smart bettors can win in over/under markets. Relying on numbers alone will not suffice. Instead, consider the defensive streak of the opponent, Arsenal’s home/away performance, missing players, and the importance and timing of the fixture.
In summary, the Gunners’ structure and sharp tactical identity make for predictable patterns for the over/under market. The savvy punter who adjusts their strategy to the opposition and match conditions has the best chance of getting value in a historically out-of-whack market.
