- Arsenal’s record against Bayern is poor, but who wants ceaseless success?
- The Metrics Exposing PGMOL’s Strategy in choosing referees
By Tony Attwood
Well, asking about predicting scores in any game is always a case of tempting fate somewhat, but here especially so since if any team is going to be able to find and exploit an Arsenal weakness, Bayern surely is that team – as we discovered in previous games against them.
But last season we would probably all of us (or at least a big majority) have agreed that this is where the new format in the Champs League can truly help us since even a defeat to Bayern need not be fatal. Arsenal played eight games in the league phase and won six, drew one and lost one, with a goals total of 16 for and three against. Thus the club had four points more than Atalanta, the top club not to qualify automatically.
So a majority view of Arsenal’s 2024-25 season would have been along the lines of, yep, really good team, exceptional defense but they haven’t quite got the squad either to go all the way in the Premier League or to compete on four fronts. Especially given the way many teams now tackle Arsenal.
So second for a third year running and the semi-finals of both the Champions League and Carabao Cup was what we got, but when stars such as Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, Gabriel and Kai Havertz were injured, they didn’t have enough strength in depth to keep results ticking along. (Oh yes, and they needed a goalscorer, too, because the media always said so. In every single article).
Now it seems we are ok once again, the flaws addressed, and even with the constant fouls against Arsenal, it can still mean we can have enough players to keep the club top of the league with room to spare. And who knows, those injured players might be about to make their way back – or at least some of them. We beat Tottenham without Gyokeres, Odegaard , Gabriel, Havertz, Gabriel Jesus…. And to be clear, Arsenal destroyed the team with the Premier League’s best away record.
So what does that mean now against Bayern, a team that in the last five games have beaten Arsenal 5-1 three times, once 1-0 and once held us to a 2-2 draws?
Well the good news is that the 1-0 defeat and the 2-2 draw were the most recent games, so things are getting better. Bayern are of course top of the German league because they always are, but Arsenal are now fighting for every ball in every game and seem very unlikely to get Bayern just run over them.
Bayern will of course be aware of Arsenal’s progress this season, just as we are aware of their eternal position at the top of the league (although it was amusing that the one time they signed a Tottenham player was also the time they didn’t win the league).
But I think this match is exactly why we didn’t see Martin Odegaard play in the last game. Bayern will know about him, but won’t have seen him of late, and a fit Odegaard can always work wonders.
Besides which Arsenal have seven new players this season, and even with the normal multiple injuries can still rotate the team and take Bayern by surprise. And although we all had our regular laughs about Tottenham, we did note before the game that the noisy bunch from down the road had improved of late. Yet we still we saw them off..
Whether Eze can turn it on again in a second match I have no idea but the point is that the victory over Tottenham was exactly the all round sort of performance that could do us a lot of good against the German champions.
Quite how Bayern will attempt to beat Arsenal I am not sure. But they are scoring just under four goals a game on average, and a team doing that is unlikely to feel the need to change. But Arsenal only concede 0.5 goals a game on average this season, which should provide an interesting challenge for Bayern.
But then on the other hand Bayern have only conceded eight goals in the league this campaign. So if we look at the forward lines we are likely to see a 3-3 draw. If we look at each set of defenders we are likely to see a goalless draw.
So there we have it. Somewhere between each club scoring three or letting in three or both. As a prediction that seems to cover it..
