That curious home and away : just how good (or semi-good) are Aston Villa.



By the Untold Team

Part of the Untold team (the part that actually publishes the articles) has decamped to the other side of the world where not only the temperature in the mid-30s, time itself is upside down.   Hence we may well appear to be publishing at strange times of the day.  We might get this sorted in due course but for now, what ever time it is for you, we have

Just how good (or not) are Villa?

Much is being made of Aston Villa’s rise up the table and particularly the strength of their home perforances, performances which are over twice as effective as their away games, in terms of points gained per game.


Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts PPG
1 Aston Villa home 7 7 0 0 24 5 19 21 3.00
7 Aston Villa away 8 3 2 3 10 15 -5 11 1.38


But taking this to mean that Villa cannot be beaten at home would be a step too far, for the simple reason that there is another factor that none of the journalists who have been extolling the brilliance of Aston Villa have failed to mention.

That is that Aston Villa has not had a balanced fixture list in terms of teams at home and away.

In their seven home matches Aston Villa six of the teams Aston Villa have faced have been 8th or lower in the league.   That is 86% of their home fixture list has been against teams 8th or lower, and obviously just 14% of the games have been against teams 7th and above.   And yet 35% of the league is made up of teams 7th and above.

In other words although Aston Villa have indeed been doing rather well at home, they have been doing so by playing a disproportionately high number of clubs that are in the lower part of the league and a disproportionately low number of matches against teams from the upper part of the league.

We can see this clearly in their home matches where the emphasis has been very much on playing clubs from the more lowly sectors.

*The Everton league position is taken as what it would be at the moment if they club had not been docked points for financial irregularities.


Date Match Result Score Lge pos
20 Aug 2023 Aston Villa v Everton W 4-0 13*
16 Sep 2023 Aston Villa v Crystal Palace W 3-1 14
30 Sep 2023 Aston Villa v Brighton and Hove Albion W 6-1 8
22 Oct 2023 Aston Villa v West Ham United W 4-1 9
29 Oct 2023 Aston Villa v Luton Town W 3-1 17
12 Nov 2023 Aston Villa v Fulham W 3-1 12
06 Dec 2023 Aston Villa v Manchester City W 1-0 4


Now of course it is true that when Aston Villa did face a team from the upper reaches – Manchester City – they still beat them, and that may be a sign of Villa’s strength, but it may also be a sign of the difficulties Manchester City are having at the moment what with them being fourth in the league and six points behind the league leaders (Arsenal).

Also while we are used to Manchester City’s goal difference shooting out ahead of everyone else’s tthey are now just part of a gaggle of four clubs all with a goal difference between +18 and +20.

So the premise that Aston Villa have risen up to the level of Manchester City may be based on a false projection by the nation’s football journalists, who hve historically not been that good a reading the runes.  A more likely explanation is that there have been a number of clubs with unbalanced fixture lists, alongside a spot of bunching by the top four, leaving the trailing clubs behind.   This might be witnessed by the goal differences.


Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Arsenal 15 11 3 1 33 14 19 36
2 Liverpool 15 10 4 1 34 14 20 34
3 Aston Villa 15 10 2 3 34 20 14 32
4 Manchester City 15 9 3 3 36 17 19 30
5 Tottenham Hotspur 14 8 3 3 28 20 8 27
6 Manchester United 15 9 0 6 18 18 0 27


Of course Aston Villa have been doing rather well, but those 20 goals conceded is quite interesting.  Yes four wins a row since the 2-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest is good going and they have done well to beat Tottenham away and Manchester City at home but in their last five games that 3-1 against Fulham was the only victory by over one goal.  And that includes the 2-1 win at home in the Conference League against Legia Warszawa.

Of course they could be a great up and coming team, but maybe a little bit of uptalking of Villa of late is maybe just that.


17 Replies to “That curious home and away : just how good (or semi-good) are Aston Villa.”

  1. Great thing about stats is you can bend them many ways. Villa have conceded 20 yes, but 5 of those came in an opening day defeat to Newcastle. They scored six at home against Brighton who are eighth and had Brighton won that game, they’d now be fifth. Four against WHU and again, had West Ham won, they’d be sixth. In fact had Villa lost both those games, they’d be seventh with Brighton fourth and West Ham potentially fifth depending on the GD.

  2. Your stats and league table are not correct.
    Brighton were 3rd the week Villa played them,
    Crystal Palace were 6th.
    I stopped checking as your facts are utter rubbish.
    Be professional if you want be be taken seriously

  3. For all that it is a game of intrigues for Arsenal fans and therefore makes predicting the result difficult to say the least.
    Villa will no doubt be out for revenge on last season’s result and certain members of the Villa household have personal reasons for doing one over Arsenal.

    Which team is as strong as their league position says?

    A testing match for both teams, me thinks.

  4. Mick

    Yep, Crystal Palace 17 fouls for 7 yellows, 2 for Ayew resulting in a red.

    Liverpool 16 fouls for 2 yellows. Not only that but those 2 yellows were in the 99th and 100th minute.

  5. We are clearly not getting the calls this match.

    Can’t fault the lads…playing hard but that first 10 minutes cost us.

  6. Absolutely outplayed them.

    It was so obvious from the start we were never going to be allowed to get anything from the match.

    Isn’t it funny how VAR can spot the minutest of touches on a hand but a blatant pull on a shirt is beyond them.

  7. A clear penalty on Jesus not given…. the ball bounces from 15 cm away from a defenders arm (?) against the hand of Havertz who had his arm in a natural position and then they disallow the goal…. what a farce….PL, PGMO and VAR….
    As Nitram said the ref and VAR would do anything to prevent us from getting anything….

  8. The refereeing at Palace was scandalous! Liverpool was granted by corrupt, criminal organisation PGMOb = 3 undeserved points. I was already sick in front of my TV set.
    @ Villa: multiple double yellows against Villa = Not given.
    Red card against Villa (elbow) = Not given.
    Penalty on Jesus against Villa = Not given.
    The goal for Arsenal or penalty for VIlla handball = Disallowed / Not given, etc., etc. (:-( !
    Arsenal was (again!) robbed 1 or 3 points by corrupt, criminal organisation PGMOb (:-(( ! !
    Totally sickening (:-((( ! ! ! COYG. Nekuhan

  9. All the foregoing would have been irrelevant had Odegaard had not wasted 2 glorious chances. it was Everton away last season repeated. At half time my son said “we will get nothing from this”. You just know when it won’t happen. Regarding the kick on Jesus the commentator’s initial reaction was ” that’s a penalty” but then backtracked with “there wasn’t enough in it”. I was unaware that the severity of a kick on the calf had any bearing on the decision. Did the defender kick Jesus’ calf? – yes – correct decision penalty. Gillett was on VAR for the disallowed goal against Palace in the 2 2 draw and also at Chelsea when Jesus was cleaned out by Sanchez. Or am I seeing things that aren’t there?

  10. Nekuhan

    spot on

    I didn’t listen to one second of the post match analysis for either game because I know, without any fear of contradiction, that anything you have mentioned will be raised as a point of contention. Yes, it may get a mention but it will all be brushed aside as all fine and dandy.

    Please please, somebody tell me I’m wrong and I’ll be more than happy to hold my hands up.

    Wont happen.

  11. @ Nitram 8:37 – Thanks (:-) ! Neither will I listen to any of the post match analysis (p.ex. BBC MOTD), because you are WRIGHT = Wont happen! So you will hold your hands down (;-) !

  12. Arsenal really need to get their lawyers involved. PGMOL are not upholding the laws of the game, and are encouraging injuries to our players. I have never before seen a goal ruled out due to two handball offences by the defending team. They are making up the rules to suit their own agenda.

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