- Arsenal v Everton: how the use of tackles does Everton and Tottenham no favours
- Arsenal v Everton: the home and away review
By Sir Hardly Anyone
As we noted in the last article, Everton are a very low scoring team who like to tackle a lot, and with Arsenal in 19th position in the yellow card table Everton are mid-table we can see the result.
So Everton are second in the tackling league table and third in the fouling league table – which pretty much tells us what sort of game we are going to see.
The officials are
- Referee: Michael Oliver.
- Assistants: Stuart Burt, Dan Cook.
- Fourth official: Josh Smith.
- VAR: Stuart Attwell. Assistant VAR: Nick Greenhalgh.
So let’s compare Michael Oliver with other referees who have each overseen 15 Premier League games this season or more. Figures are from Whoscored
Michael Oliver has refereed 23 Premier League games this season.
Fouls: The range of fouls per game seen by referees who have overseen 16 games or more this season is 16%. This shows us that the referee who sees the most fouls actually sees 16% more fouls than the referee who sees the least. And this is not across one or two matches, but all the matches they have overseen this season. It is an extraordinarily large gap.
The difference in the number of fouls per tackle across the whole season between the highest and lowest number for a referee is a staggering 32%. In essence a club in a game overseen by Tim Robinson will probably get around 32% more fouls given per tackle than Chris Kavanagh.
In other words any club that knows what’s what will be training its players not to tackle when Robinson is in charge.
The difference in penalty giving is also frightening. Anthony Taylor gives nearly six times as many penalties as Simon Hooper per game. Hooper has overseen 24 games, Taylor 26. The actual percentage is 575% more penalties per game. That undermines any credibility that referees can have – no wonder PGMO appear to forbid the mainstream media from ever mentioning it.
As for yellow cards David Coote has handed out 24% more yellow cards than Paul Tierney. Which, given the fact that clubs may see the same referee five or six times in a season, means that the clubs that get Coote a lot, are much more likely to lose players to suspension than clubs that that get Tierney a lot.
Which is of course why the moment Arteta arrived he reversed Emery’s policy of wholesale tackling, in order to take the game away from the referee and give it back to the players. Arsenal moved from being the most yellow-carded team to one from the lowest, beaten only by Manchester City.
However Michael Oliver who we have this weekend, is low in the number of fouls he sees, and has the lowest ranking in the number of tackles that he sees as fouls and thus also low in terms of yellow cards.
In essence what this means is that clubs that are dependent on tackling and fouling as their way of defending have data which can help them cope with each referee, knowing when they can use the full force of their tackling approach, and when they need to lay off, and probably just take the defeat.
And now the really bad news. In term of results Michael Oliver this season has seen 39.1% of his games as home wins, and 43.5% as away wins. If you want to follow this topic further you might be interested in our article “How much do the referees vary over how they handle games”. You might also enjoy “There is something really fishy about PGMO referees”.
This season 46% pf games have been home wins and 32% away wins with the remaining 22% obviously being drawn. In short is totally out of line with his fellow referees, and appears to be overcompensating for the influence of the crowd.
So the average referee will see 46% of his games as home wins and 32% as away wins. But this referee sees 43% of his games as away wins. That gives the away team quite a benefit and they will of course be aware of this.
Indeed among the referees doing over 15 games our referee is pretty near the foot of the table for home wins.
Such variation among referees’ results is ludicrous.
Here is the abbreviated table for referees this season showing the raw data on which the earlier part of this article is built. Numbers of per game (pg).
| Referee | Games | Fouls pg | Fouls/Tackles | Pen pg | Yel pg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Taylor | 26 | 21.54 | 0.61 | 0.54 | 4.81 |
| Paul Tierney | 25 | 21.80 | 0.64 | 0.20 | 3.52 |
| Simon Hooper | 24 | 22.25 | 0.64 | 0.08 | 4.29 |
| Michael Oliver | 23 | 21.26 | 0.57 | 0.26 | 3.83 |
| Tim Robinson | 21 | 23.05 | 0.70 | 0.29 | 4.24 |
| Chris Kavanagh | 19 | 21.53 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 4.00 |
| Stuart Attwell | 17 | 20.71 | 0.58 | 0.18 | 4.35 |
| David Coote | 16 | 24.69 | 0.69 | 0.31 | 5.19 |
Amidst all the focus on Man City and hopes for the unlikely event that West Ham might take points from their match, let us not be complacent about Arsenal’s game against Everton.
We are, of course, superior in every respect of football performance, but will need to be vigilant against a potential combination of bad luck, Dyche thug-ball, which a complicit referee may well permit, and any risk of complacency on our own part.
It should be 3 points, but it cannot be guaranteed.
Arsenal should ensure we are not nervous and play our true game, and not to leave small margins in the score that permits game changing ref or var decisions to dictate the outcome come. Arsenal must aim to win by a comfortable margin.
Everton have a good defence and will be hard to break down if they decide to park the bus.
As for the transfer market that’s around the corner. MICHAEL OLISE is a must purchase.
Arsenals biggest rivals and benchmark is Manchester City.
So I have looked at the ratings of ever premier league player that has played against them and judged their ratings both home and away, so to be sure it was not just a one game fluke.
The only consistent player to be in the high 7s and 8s against ManCity that did not play for Arsenal was Crystal Palaces “Micheal Olise” who had torn apart man city every time with ratings of 7.5 to 8.6.
This player is a right side attacker who is similar to Saka but with more pace and two footed, so very versatile.
He can play also through the middle as well as the right side for palace, and can shoot and score with either foot.
I think Man City, Chelsea, Spurs and Man U will all bid for the 22 year old.
Arsenal have an advantage of being a London side that has qualified for the European Champions League, so he would not have to change his home address to change clubs with Euro prospects.
If he can remain injury free, he could surpass Saka as Arsenal’s best Attacker.
The other player is a strong center forward that can hold up play and the ball with technical skills and a prolific 20 goals a season. I have watched Isak against Man City and he dose not perform well and fails like most premier league strikers against Man City. Again using Man City as the benchmark.
So Arsenal may look abroad for a strong athletic ball retaining center forward. Not many fit the technical criteria for Arsenal’s passing game. But I would start by purchasing Michael Olise before one of the top 4 sides get him first. He is potentially better than Saka.
@John L
I agree…Everton is a potential banana skin. We know how Sean Dyche prepares his squads. They typically play a 4-4-2 are defensive, look to hit on the counter and play a robust style. This will be helped by Michael “I see nothing” Oliver holding the whistle. We must take care of our business and let the results at the Etihad take care of themselves.
@daveg,
to me such an addition in a position where we do have players seems risky.
Who would he replace ?
Saka ? No
Havertz ? No
Trossard ? No
Odegaard ? No
Would he be willing to come and play substitute from time to time ? I doubt it.
I’d rather see a good center back and if Elneny does not stay a very good midfielder.
Young and with long term potential.
Ideally someone from the youth ranks paired with a more experienced player
But please tell us who you’d want to change in the squad. Because this is where it starts. Who can be replaced by a better player.
Ben Godfrey’s stamp on Tomiyasu’s face in 2021 was a prime example of a referee (Dean) wanting to give Everton the benefit of the doubt.