Aston Villa v Arsenal: what the last six results tell us will happen

 

 

 

• • Aston Villa v Arsenal: the transfers, the centre forward and 52 years since winning the 3rd division
  • Arsenal are set to complete the ­signing of Mikel Merino

 

By Bulldog Drummond

As we saw through last season, the last six games table and its companion the last ten games table are tables that give us quite a clue as to how a match will pan out.  But although we can do this now near the start of the season, by looking at the game from this season and those from last, this of course is less reliable.  Not least because it can take no account of the players signed, and the way that they have been able to fit into the team.

But still there is of course a lack of other data, so let’s have a look, although with added caution, at the table based on the last six games played by Arsenal, Aston Villa and Manchester City.  Figures as before come from The Fishy.

 

Premier League Form (Last 6)

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	18	2	+16	18
2	Arsenal	6	6	0	0	16	3	+13	18
12	Aston Villa	6	2	2	2	10	13	-3	8

 

So, although Aston Villa gained fourth spot, it certainly wasn’t through their performance at the end of the season.   But to get a closer look at such things we can of course take a look at the last six home games for Villa and the last six away games for Arsenal…

 

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
2	Arsenal away	6	5	1	0	15	2	+13	16
15	Aston Villa home	6	2	3	1	13	13	0	9

 

In fact Aston Villa at the end of the season were not powering ahead to grab that fourth place at a;;, but getting it virtually by default.  For if we look at those other challengers for a top-six finish, the last six games give us (for selected teams) some interesting figures…

 

Premier League Form (Last 6)

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Man City	6	6	0	0	18	2	+16	18
2	Arsenal	6	6	0	0	16	3	+13	18
3	Chelsea	6	5	0	1	14	6	+8	15
5	Newcastle	6	4	1	1	17	8	+9	13
6	Liverpool	6	3	2	1	13	9	+4	11
10	Man Utd	6	3	1	2	7	8	-1	10
12	Aston Villa	6	2	2	2	10	13	-3	8
15	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	8	10	-2	7

 

As this table shows, Chelsea finally got their act together at the end of last season, and Newcastle did pick up a bit too, while Liverpool, Manchester United, Aston Villa and the wonderful much admired by the media Tottenham, tipped to win things this year, didn’t do that well at all. over the last six (including of course the first game of this season).

So the question for Villa is whether they will be able to pick up after that end-of-season downturn and start afresh, or whether the end of last season signals a new era for the club.

If we now look back to the Premier League after the first six games of 2023/24 it is interesting to note that at that point absolutely no one that I can recall was suggesting that Arsenal might come second, might break their goalscoring record for the Premier League, might beat their goals against record in the Premier League etc etc.

First six at the start of last season

 

	Team	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts	Final	Change
1	Manchester City	6	0	0	16	3	13	18	1	0
2	Liverpool	5	1	0	15	5	10	16	3	-1
3	Brighton and Hove Albion	5	0	1	18	8	10	15	11	-8
4	Tottenham Hotspur	4	2	0	15	7	8	14	5	-1
5	Arsenal	4	2	0	11	6	5	14	2	+3
6	Aston Villa	4	0	2	12	10	2	12	4	+2

 

As we can see the first six games of last season were not that accurate a guide to what happened in the end.  Indeed Brighton were eight places above their final position, and we can conclude that the last six games played seem to be a better forecaster of results, than the opening six games of last season.

What is certainly true is that Aston Villa’s defence in the last six games played has not been great, letting in ten goals.  In fact if we expand our view a little and look at Aston Villa through their last six games in all competitions at the end of the 2023/24 campaign we find no wins, two draws and four defeats.

The two draws were in league games at home to Chelsea (2-2) and Liverpool (3-3) .  The defeats were twice to Olympiakos in the Conference League (overall 2-6), and defeats in the league to Brighton and Crystal Palace.  This compares with Arsenal’s last six last season which were all wins, all in the Premier League and gave a goal difference of 16 goals scored and three conceded.

Of course. Aston Villa were having to contend at the end of the season with those European games – in the Conference – and that might well have distracted them, but we can also say that really a club in fourth position in the Premier League ought to be able to defeat the club that came third in the Greek SuperLeague, six points behind the league winners.   There really is very little comparison between the strength or financial power of the two leagues.

So the overall conclusion thus far is that it is looking promising for Arsenal.