Aston Villa v Arsenal; the game of phases and the home/away difference

 

 

By Bulldog Drummond

• Aston Villa v Arsenal: what the last six results tell us will happen
• Aston Villa v Arsenal: the transfers, the centre forward and 52 years since winning the 3rd division

Villa v Arsenal games tend to go in phases.  For example, between January 2014 and September 2019, the clubs played each other seven times, six in the league and once in the FA Cup.  Arsenal won all seven games, scoring 23 goals and conceding three.  In five of the matches, Villa failed to score.

Then between July 2020 (in the pandemic, hence July) and February 2021, the clubs played each other three times, and Villa won all three.  They scored five and Arsenal failed to get a single goal.

Following this, between October 2021 and February 2023 there were four straight Arsenal wins, with Arsenal scoring 10 and Villa scoring four..  It was just like old times except for the two games last season which Villa won, 1-0 at Villa Park and 2-0 at the Arsenal stadium.

Which raises the question, what on earth comes next?

Overall Arsenal are ahead 87 wins to 71 defeats with 45 drawn.  But less we think we are in a bad run at the moment we should not forget this is nothing like the old days, by which I mean 1908 to 1922.  During that time the clubs played each other 16 times, always in the League Division One as it was then called.  Villa won 13, two were drawn and Arsenal won one.  As you may know, if you know your Arsenal history, it was not the best of times for Arsenal.

Across the last ten years however, it has been even – five wins each, 13 goals to Arsenal, and 12 to Aston Villa.

But since then it has been harder going.  Since 1996/7 there hasn’t been a trophy win for the Villa.  Before that the memories must be of the two seasons at the start of the 80s in which they won the league in 1981 and the European Cup in 1982.  But already in winning that European Cup the warning sounds were out – that season they came 11th in the league.

In the following six seasons, they came 6th, 10th, 10th again, 1th and 22nd.  In fact within five seasons after winning the European Cup they were relegated to the second division.

Their most recent promotion was in 2019 and in their five years back in the top division they have come 17th, 11th, 14th, 7th, and 4th.  So we can see a real progress there, and the question for them is, can they move up on 4th, securing the place in the Champioins League again and maybe knocking Liverpool out of third place.

One thing against this is the Champions League itself.  Last season Villa did play in Europe – in the Conference League wherein they reached the semi-finals.  They played 14 games in all, winning eight, often against modest opposition such as Hibernian, and HSK Zrinjski Mostar (with whom they drew one match) finally going out to Olympiakos 6-2 over two legs.

But perhaps most notable of all the statistics is the fact that Arsenal had a goal difference that was 39 better than Villa’s last season.  And the home/away tables are worth a ponder

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
4	Aston Villa home	19	8	4	7	28	33	-5	28
2	Arsenal away	19	13	3	3	43	13	30	42

 

So as we can see Arsenal won five more away games than Villa did home games, scored 15 more goals away than Villa did at home and conceded 20 goals fewer away than Villa did at home.  Overall Arsenal picked up 14 more points away from home than Aston Villa did at home.  Which augers well for this weekend.

But as we have noted across the last ten games it has been five each, with Villa doing the double over Arsenal last season, much to my personal dismay.

Hoiwever next we will have a look at the tackles, fouls and cards that each club managed to make and pick up last season in the hope that this might give us a clue about what Villa will be doing to try and nullify the Arsenal attack.