Where do we normally get to after three games

 

• Just how many players do Arsenal need in their squad to win the league?
• Why are so few players changing clubs this summer?

Today on the Arsenal History site: The video of the greatest Arsenal hattrick of all time

By Tony Attwood

Last season for Arsenal’s third game in the league, the club played Fulham at home and got a 2-2 draw in a match many of us expected Arsenal to win.

That left us fifth in the league behind West Ham, who actually finished the season in ninth, 37 points behind Arsenal,

Which gives us a good reminder that the league table after two or three games doesn’t really tell us much about how things are going to end up – except that we all expect Manchester City to be at or near the top and stay at or near the top.

But the fact is leaving aside the case of Manchester City who will remain a special case until the 115 charges against them and their legal case against the League are resolved, other clubs with more normal sorts of funding tend to move about a bit in the first few games of a season, even though many reporters and some supporters take the opening matches as a sign of where the club will end up, the need to sack the manager, and the inevitable result failure of the club to buy a plethora of new players that the media recommended.

But if we go back to two seasons ago (2022/23) we find an even more fascinating scenario since after three games Arsenal were top, with Leeds United in third place.  And that is interesting because having been third after three games Leeds then had a sticky time and ended up 19th and hence relegated, five points and seven goals behind Everton and safety, in 17th place.

This suggests that we need to be very careful about drawing any conclusions from opening games.  Indeed it is only three years since Arsenal, after three games, were bottom of the league having lost all three matches, while Tottenham were top, having won all three games, having had no goals conceded.

Arsenal, to the club’s eternal credit, did not sack the manager after those three opening defeats, but instead rose 15 places up the league by the end of the season.  And so I wondered ahead of this coming weekend’s matches, just how much clubs can move around from their position after three games to the end of the season.

The problem clubs have is that if they are top of the league and unbeaten after a few games, there is absolutely no desire to change anything.

And West Ham must by now surely be getting used to the fact that three games does not tell one much.  For on 1 September 2021 when Arsenal were bottom with no points, they still finished the season in fifth.  Not as high as we would have liked, but certainly not the relegation that was predicted.

That leap up the league of 15 places was the largest that season, and indeed one of the largest ever.  And of course some teams travelled the opposite route.  Everton went down ten places and Watford down seven.  Going up the league from their position after three games, we found Wolverhampton (up 10 places) and Manchester City and Newcastle (each up six).

So what might happen this season?  It is only two games in, I know, but there is still a frenzy of speculation.

Four teams have won both their games (Manchester City, Brighton and Hove, Arsenal and Liverpool).  Five teams have lost both their games (Southampton, Crystal Palace, Ipswich Town, Wolverhampton and Everton).

We are getting to the stage where the normal prognostication is that the teams that come up, then go down, and although Leicester at the moment are not in the “no points” section, but so far they have gained just one.

In terms of goals Everton and Southampton haven’t yet scored, while Arsenal and Liverpool haven’t yet conceded.

But of course the greatest season was the Unbeaten Season, and I thought it might be interesting to consider what has happened to the clubs who were there with Arsenal.  Seven of the teams that season in the Premier League are no longer there.  Bolton who were in the top league at that time are now in League One, currently 13th with four points from three matches.  Arsenal that season won their opening four games before drawing with Portsmouth and Manchester United.  After six games Arsenal were one point clear at the top but Chelsea in second place had a game in hand.

So what can we learn from this?  Basically, that how the season starts might indicate how it will go on, but it might not.  I for one am so thankful that Arsenal did not listen to the pundits and sack Arteta on 6 September 2021 when the club sat bottom of the league with no points, no goals scored and nine goals conceded.

Yes it was tough because Tottenham at that same moment were top with three straight wins (although all were 1-0 as some of us noticed at the time).  Tottenham ended up fourth and Arsenal fifth, the gap between them was two points.  Last season the gap was 23 points.  In our favour.

Sometimes a bit of perspective can be helpful.   

.