Arsenal v Brighton: past results and future prospects

 

 

• Anyone for Arsenal? (as the transfer window tinkles into broken fragments)
• How likely are Arsenal to move out of the 8 game group stage in Europe?

And in Arsenal’s history today…

• 30 August: Arsenal start the longest run of any club ever in the top division

By Sir Hardly Anyone

So it is second against third in the only just begun league, with Brighton edging ahead of Arsenal having scored one more goal.  And a better start for both clubs than last year when Brighton won one and lost won, and Arsenal won one and drew one.  So here’s the table now…

2024/25

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	2	2	0	0	6	1	5	6
2	Brighton and Hove Albion	2	2	0	0	5	1	4	6
3	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	4	0	4	6

 

We should also note that Brighton have beaten Crawley Town (now of League One, having come through the play offs last season) 4-0 at home in the second round of the league cup.

Interestingly at the end of last season the table read…

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
2	Arsenal	38	28	5	5	91	29	62	89
11	Brighton and Hove Albion	38	12	12	14	55	62	-7	48

 

… although after two games last season Brighton were top and Arsenal were eighth.   By the end as you will see above Arsenal were second and Brighton were 11th.  

Brighton have bought in eight players for fees this summer, another three for no fee, and have nine players returning from loans.  Something around 16 players have left, mostly on loan.   According to Transfermarkt the cost of the summer to Brighton has been  €-196.91m net (the actual cost of the incoming players being  €231.91m).  I wonder how that works with Financial Fair Play or whatever it is now called.

It must have been very frustrating to Brighton fans to have had such a fine start last campaign but at the end find themselves below even Crystal Palace.  They ended 41 points behind Arsenal, scored 36 goals fewer and conceded 33 goals more, ending with a negative goal difference.

2023/24

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
2	Arsenal	38	28	5	5	91	29	62	89
11	Brighton and Hove Albion	38	12	12	14	55	62	-7	48

 

But as we have seen above they are above Arsenal in the league after two games.  And yet last season their away form really was a long way below Arsenal’s home form which gives Arsenal quite a positive psychological boost at this point.

2023/24

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
3	Arsenal home	19	15	2	2	48	16	32	47
13	Brighton and Hove Albion away	19	4	6	9	25	35	-10	18

 

But Brighton’s real troubles came at the end of last season when in their last ten league games, having been knocked out of the Europa League by Roma, they won one (against Aston Villa!) lost six and drew three.

Of course this season’s opening games have improved their record but if we look at the last ten games of the two clubs there is still a huge gap because of that decline last season.

 

Premier League Form (Last 10)

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
2	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	23	5	+18	27
18	Brighton	10	3	2	5	9	17	-8	11

 

Arsenal as you will expect, have won just on twice as many games against Brighton as the other way round although they did have a couple of wins against Arsenal in 2022.  But Arsenal won both of the games against Brighton last season with a combined goal aggregate of 5-0.

Yet if we do look at the details of last season it is the goals that stand out.  Brighton were only the 12th highest scoring team and they were the 11th worst team in terms of goals conceded.  Arsenal scored 2.4 goals a game in the last campaign, while Brighton scored 1.45 goals a game.

Arsenal conceded 0.76 goals a game in the league last season while Brighton conceded 1.63 goals a game.  With these sorts of results it is possible to see Arsenal knocking in three or four, while it is hard to see Brighton getting more than one.  But then again it is a funny ol’ game.

Manchester City play West Ham away tomorrow evening which should be a doddle for the club still facing 115 accusations of naughty things.   (In fact maybe we should simply call them “-155” until the cases are resolved.)  Manc C won those games by an aggregate of 5-0 last campaign, so a victory by two or three clear goals would be particularly welcome to keep things on track.