How likely are Arsenal to move out of the 8 game group stage in Europe?

Posted on by Tony Attwood

 

 

By tony Attwood

As you may have heard we have a totally different approach in the Champions League this season with eight games against different clubs in the first round of matches, and no home/away fixtures against each club.   The list of clubs in Arsenal’s group is below with each club only being played once, obviously either home or away.

Paris Saint Germain (H), InterMilan  (A), Shakhtar Donetsk (H), Atalanta (A), Dinamo Zagreb (H), Sporting (A), Monaco (H), Girona (A).

Thus Arsenal will play eight games meaning each team in this list will be played just once with four teams played at home and four away.

The results of this will be combined with the results from other groups and the top eight teams when the league stage finishes next year will go on automatically to qualify for the knockout round.   There they will be joined by the 16 clubs placed ninth to 24th, once they have played a home and away playoff round.  The teams that finish 25th or lower will be knocked out.

To get a grip on what sort of opposition they are going to be, we can take a look at where each club ended up last season (on the basis that it is too early to see how they are doing this season,)  

In the table below I have looked at each club’s record for last season although of course at once you will see that the points total is affected by the fact that different leagues play different numbers of games.   Nevertheless here is the table in points order.  You might be interested to note that Girona is part of the City Group.

 

 
Team P W D L F A GD Pts
Inter
38
29
7
2
89
22
67
94
Sporting
34
 29 3 2 96 29 67
90
Arsenal 38 28 5 5 91 29 62 89
Girona
38
 25 6 7 85 46 49
81
Dinamo Zagreb
36
 25 7 4 67 30 37
82
Paris Saint-Germain 34 22 10 2 81 33 48 76
Shakhtar
30
22
5
3
63
24
39
71
Atalanta
38
21
6
11
72
42
30
69
Monaco
34
 20 7 7 68 42 26
67
Girona
38
 25 6 7 85 46 49
81

 

But of course the problem with looking at these teams is that the number of games played per team in each league last season varies between 30 nad 38.  So to overcome that issue with the goals for and against we have below the goals for per game (FPG) and goals against (APG) per game and then points per game (PPG).

This table is in a points per game order – Arsenal as you can see are fourth.

 

 
Team P F FPG A APG Pts PPG
Sporting
34
 96 2.82 29 0.85
90
 2.65
Inter
38
89
2.34
22
0.58
94
 2.47
Shakhtar
30
63
2.10
24
0.8
71
 2.37
Arsenal 38 91 2.39 29 0.76 89 2.34
Dinamo Zagreb
36
 67 1.86 30 1.86
82
 2.28
Paris Saint-Germain 34 81 2.38 33 0.97 76 2.24
Girona City Group
38
 85 2.23 46 1.21
81
 2.13
Monaco
34
 68 2.00 42 1.23
67
 1.97
Atalanta
38
72
1.89
42
1.11
69
 1.82

 

Of course this is not an absolute measure since different leagues have different strengths and in some leagues there are perhaps three or four clubs way above all the rest all the time.   So it is worth having a quick look at a couple of other metrics – but again taking into account the number of games played by each club.

In terms of goals scored per game Arsenal come out second, which is once more why the ceaseless bleating from the media and some bloggers about Arsenal needing a centre forward is so bizarre.   I’ll repeat, compared with a group of top teams across Europe Arsenal scored more goals per game than anyone else in the group other than Sporting who play in a much weaker league than Arsenal.

Indeed in Portugal, since the 1946/47 season has a team other than the big three of Sporting, Benfica and Porto, won that league.  There is in other words far less competition in the Portuguese league than in the Premier League making it much easier to score goals.

In terms of defence only Inter come out better, and in fact they ended last season three points better off than Manchester City in England while conceding 12 points fewer.  They were in fact far and away the dominant team last season in Italy winning the league by coming 19 points and a goal difference of +40 ahead of AC Milan in second place.  (Arsenal you may recall came two points behind Manchester City and with the same goal difference as Manchester City.)

So it is a bit difficult to judge just how good Inter are on the international stage.  What is interesting however, is that they only got to the round of 16 in the Champions League last year, at which point they were knocked out by Atlético Madrid.

Thus from the data of last season Arsenal should qualify to move forward from the eight-game “league” round onto the knockout stages. 

 

 

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9 Replies to “How likely are Arsenal to move out of the 8 game group stage in Europe?”

  2. Raheem Sterling coming our way ?
    Thinking about it and how Arsenal do seem to have a knack to ‘augment’ players, why not.
    I’m sure Mr Arteta would get the best out of him.

  3. Sterling 1 year loan would be good. I find the new CL arrangement easy to understand and interesting

  4. John if you thought the new format is confusing, you should have seen the promo video for the draw. Its very cringey. You have Ceferin walk past presenters and other footballers when they ask him to explain the new format and he replies with im busy. Whatever the intention was it ended up to me bad as it doesnt tell me anything but money and lots of it is involved.

  5. Sittin’ on a fence here, Tony
    My gut feeling:
    We have a 100% chance of making it out of the group stage
    Not only is the new competition barely understandable, this stage will prove to have been pointless.
    French mathematicians have actually predicted (remains to be seen how serious they are, I think so … but I may be mistaken, of course) that 8 points (8 draws; 1 win 5 draws etc.) should be enough to make it out of this first phase. According to the same guys, 17 points (very “classical” calculation: when I was a kid – a long, long time ago – my ‘pa would always tell me at the start of a season 100% home wins, plus 100% away draws will make a champion out of your team; well that’s exactly what these 17 points amount to – and yes, I know one point is missing) will get you directly to the round of 16.
    So, here is an exclusive “Untold” version of this pointlessness (jokin’, of course, every football fan has come to the very same conclusion, or so I think) with my lay of the Champions’ League land, come January 29th, 2025:
    Will go out after the group stage (let’s call this bunch the “Cannon Fodder“):
    Brugge – Shakhtar – Zagreb – Salzburg – Belgrade – Bern – Celtic – Slovan – Sparta – Graz – Brest
    plus one among (the “Plebeians“):
    Benfica – Sporting – Feyenoord – PSV – Lille – Monaco – Bologna – Girona – Stuttgart – Leipzig
    Will make it to the round of 16 (the “Oligarchs-Plutocrats“):
    Real – City – Bayern – PSG – Liverpool – Inter – Borussia – Barcelona – Bayer – Atletico – Atalanta – Juve – Arsenal – Milan – Villa
    plus one among (the “Plebeians“ – yes, I regard the remaining teams as the future losers of the first round of 16 knockout stage)):
    Benfica – Sporting – Feyenoord – PSV – Lille – Monaco – Bologna – Girona – Stuttgart – Leipzig

    But on the other hand, and this will be true of this season only, I’ll explain why in a moment, the said group stage might be thrilling – and prove to be a bumpy ride for our boys.
    First, the “Cannon Fodder“ are bound to pull a few heroic performances, a few Alamos – Shakhtar and Zagreb in London are such cases in point.
    Disrespectful as they always are, standing up against whatever-God-you-worship’s will, some among the Plebeians will not stay in the place He has chosen for them to get stuck in. Three (Monaco, Sporting, Girona) among this prone-to-blasphemy lot stand in our way. Monaco in London, for instance, will be a tricky game. The club will use the competition to shed light upon top-class, ambitious youngsters (I’m thinking of Ben Seghir and Akliouche, in particular) who are but golden geese to them. As for the kids themselves they will do everything they can to wound the “Oligarchs“ (namely, Barcelona – Inter – Villa, and Arsenal, for the Monaco lads) into buying them.
    Which is why there’s indeed an outside chance we might have to coldsweat our way out of this stage …

    But (back to “this season only“) this will be only because all the “Oligarchs“ will fight tooth and nails for one of the eight top seats … this time. I’m afraid some will feel very sorry for it by the end of January. Eight extremely-high-intensity CL games from September to February will exact a terrible toll on a-little-too-thin squads, whose price will be paid in domestic competitions. Need I say I think Arsenal are among them? With our …
    injury-prone lads (Tierney-Partey-Jesus)
    not-CL-knockout-stages-level lads (Kiwior, Tomiyasu)
    out-of-favour-with-MA; maybe soon out-of-the-Arsenal altogether lads (Zinchenko-Nketiah-Nelson)
    ageing lad (Jorginho)
    unexperienced-at-CL-level lads (Merino-Calafiori)
    uncovered goalie
    … I don’t think – as of today Friday, Aug 30th, 2024, 3pm LT – we have what it takes in store to play for both top-spots in the PL and the CL group stage. We “should“ (but what do I know? no need to tell me) try and get our 9 points asap, then play the remaining group games as though they were friendlies, focus on the PL, and get ready for our round of 16 knockout stage against one of the “Plebeians“ … Which is exactly what, imo, most “Oligarchs“ will do in the foreseeable future, turning this new group stage in the equivalent of the NBA regular season, a never-ending litany of friendlies (but isn’t the NBA the Grail of the European powers that be after all? we all know the answer to that question).
    Anyway, I’m finally back to the pointlessness of the new group stage … no way for me out of the legendary company I’m stuck with, I’m afraid:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lBLxaIOZG4

  6. LE GALL

    “my ‘pa would always tell me at the start of a season 100% home wins, plus 100% away draws will make a champion”

    That’s exactly the rule of thumb I used to us. Basically an average of 2 points per game.

    But just as a point of interest, in reality that has very rarely been enough. In fact in the entire lifetime of the PL it has only been enough on two occasions. The very first season when by coincidence in a 42 match season Man Utd won it with exactly 2 points per game. Then in season ’96//’97 they did it with just under 2 points per game.

    But those days are a distant memory. With the amount of matches being stable at 38, at 2 points a match the 76 points you would achieve is now nowhere near enough

    Breaking it into decades, well almost:

    The last 10 seasons average was 91.7

    The 10 before that the average was 88.2

    The 9 before that the average was 82.7 (It was 42 game seasons prior to that)

    So as you can see the amount of points required to win the league is getting higher and higher andI’m afraid LE GALL our old ‘rule of thumb’ just doesn’t cut it anymore.

    But will it in this new CL set up, that’s the question?

  8. No need of the link, I know you’re right, Nitram.
    I was just making fun of my own use of “mathematicians” (and of “L’Équipe’s” mention of them, actually – that’s where I heard from this), who just dressed in fancy clothes an urban legend known to all old-timers like myself …
    Having said that, and just to mention the Arteta years, 76 points would have taken a team to 3rd (2020), 2nd (21), 3rd (22), 3rd (23), 4th (24) …
    Not to bad, is it? (just holdin’ my dad’s ground, here!)

  9. LE GALL

    And rightly so. It was my ground for years.

    I haven’t looked but I wouldn’t be surprised if that rule of thumb stood closer examination pre PL.

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