Is Mr Gillett unconsciously biased in any way, or does he treat teams equally

 

 

By Bulldog Drummond

Of course we do not say (unless somehow it has slipped through, and if it has we all offer our apologies) that PGMO referees are deliberately biased.  Rather our argument is that referees have always been influenced by extraneous events – and the most obvious one is the crowd noise.   This was revealed beyond any doubt during the pandemic where the balance of home and away wins changed dramatically when no crowds were present.

That bias was shown not only by changes in results but by meticulous research at the University of London which compared the decisions made by professional referees watching matches on video, with or without the sound.  Videos were stopped at significant moments when a decision was required and videos shown with sound resulted in a much higher number of decisions going in favour of home teams than away.

Since then matters have become more complex as some referees, knowing of this bias, have deliberately changed their approach sometimes overcompensating for matters in the way they favour away teams.

We have of course talked of the referee in relation to the crowd before, and for this game we have an Australian – Mr Gillett. So let’s try and put some figures onto the chit-chat.

Arsenal have eight yellow cards this season which sounds like a shock horror start, but in fact half the Premier League have eight yellow cards this season.  But we should note that Tottenham have only five.  Arsenal are one of only three teams to have a red.  The others are Newcastle also on eight yellows and Everton with three yellows.

And now, from three games we have enough data to return to our usual analysis of tackles, fouls and yellow cards arising from those fouls. Last season Arsenal had the second-lowest number of cards from fouls, the fifth-lowest number of fouls per game, and the fourth-lowest number of tackles.  

Clearly this was a well-developed strategy from Arsenal and followed the Manchester City pattern, although in terms of these metrics, Man C are on another planet having the lowest numbers in each category by far.

So far this season the figures per game are…

 

Team	Tackles	Fouls	Yellow from fouls
Arsenal	17.3	15	2.0
Newcastle	18	13	2.0
Aston Villa	21	13.3	2.7
Manchester United	24	10.7	2.0
Tottenham	22.3	12.0	1.7
Manchester City	15	5.3	1.3
Liverpool	16.7	12.2	1.3

 

These figures are massively different from last season. Arsenal are putting in a lower number of tackles per game but are being called out for a higher level of fouls and cards  It is an astonishing change.

Of course we are only measuring this season over three games, and last seaason’s figures take in all the season, but to see if the opening of a season has an effect on clubs we can do this comparison for other clubs. 

2023/24

 

Team	Tackles / foul	Tackles / yellow	Fouls / yellow
Arsenal	1.15	8.65	7.5
Newcastle	1.38	9.0	6.5
Aston Villa	1.58	7.78	4.93
Manchester United	2.24	12.0	5.35
Tottenham	1.86	13.11	7.06
Manchester City	2.83	11.54	4.08
Liverpool	1.37	12.85	10.15

 

What we can see here is that Arsenal are now putting in the fewest tackles before a foul is called and getting away with fewer tackles before a yellow card is waved than any club other than Aston Villa.

But when it comes to yellow cards the refs are obviously feeling they have been leaning on Arsenal enough, for Arsenal are able to commit more “fouls” than any team other than Manchester City (whose figures are so beyond everyone else they really can’t be compared) before a card is waved around.

Of course one can’t read the minds of referees (or anyone else come to that matter) but it appears that referees have been ordered to see Arsenal tackles as fouls but having given the opposition the advantage by giving them a free kick, the referees are not willing to follow this up with something as public as a yellow card.  Only Liverpool can commit more fouls before getting a yellow card than Arsenal can, and that is normally the case in most seasons.

But this rise in the number of tackles being awarded as fouls is extraordinary.  Arsenal’s tackles per foul last season was 1.56 – this season it is 1.15.   In short last season Arsenal could put in 36% more tackles before a foul was called – with the same players as this season.

Even more alarmingly, other clubs are not seeing this level of change.  PGMO are of course secure in the knowledge that the media won’t comment on such matters, but did they really think we wouldn’t notice?

But let’s move on before I explode too much with indignation.  The one thing that might help Arsenal despite this assault on our defenders by the referees is that Jarred Gillett is more prone to overseeing away wins than any other referee.Last season 47.6% of his games were away wins and 42.9% were home wins.  Here are the figures for some of the most used Premier League referees last season.  Just look at the variation between Jones with 13.6% away wins and Gillet with 47.6%.  

 

	Games	HomeWin%	AwayWin%	Draw%
Anthony Taylor	27	37.0	29.6	33.3
Paul Tierney	25	36.0	44.0	20.0
Robert Jones	22	63.6	13.6	22.7
Jarred Gillett	21	42.9	47.6	9.5
Chris Kavanagh	20	40.0	40.0	20.0

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