This is the worst Arsenal start to a season since…. here comes Europe.

 

By Tony Attwood

Well, completing that headline, we can all be pretty sure it is the worst for a very long time because the media keep telling us how awful it is and just how far ahead of us the other big teams are.  Big teams like Manchester United, Tottenham Hots, Chelsea…  But of course when we compare now to where Arsenal have come from not over the last two years but over a decent period like the last five years it really isn’t that bad.

 

Team P W D L F GA GD Pts
3 Arsenal 2024 8 5 2 1 15 8 7 17
2 Arsenal 2023 8 6 2 0 16 6 10 20
1 Arsenal 2022 8 7 0 1 20 8 12 21
12 Arsenal 2021 8 3 2 3 7 12 -5 11
11 Arsenal 2020 8 4 0 4 9 10 -1 12

 

“Ah yes” but the critics say, but that”s not the point.  The point in ManC who always win everything.   Well, yes up to a point… but I am not so sure.  Let’s look at  Manc across the same five years at this point…

 

Season P W D L F A GD Pts
2 2024/5 8 6 2 0 19 9 10 20
3 2023/4 8 6 0 2 17 6 11 18
2 2022/3 8 6 2 0 29 9 20 20
3 2021/2 8 5 2 1 16 3 13 17
13 2020/1 8 3 3 2 10 11 -1 12

 

The fact is that across the last five seasons, Manchester C have show a variation of between 12 and 20 points from the opening eight games.  Meanwhile Arsenal have shown a variation of between 11 and 21 points in the first eight games.   One point fewer to one point more.

True their goalscoring has been greater than Arsenal’s – between 10 goals and 29 scored, and between 3 and 11 conceded.  For Arsenal that has been seven and 20 scored and between six and 12 conceded.

But you don’t normally get these sorts of comparisons over time in the media simply because a) they take a few minutes to compile., and b) it actually shows that Manchester City is not the monolith that they are made out to be.

Yes of course they have an excellent team with excellent backup players, but that is because they have had far more money to spend than Arsenal to get the basis of the team sorted.  

Guardiola started in 2016/17 and after coming third in his first season it has been first and second all the way.   But we should also remember that in the seven years before he joined Manchester City had won the league twice and come second twice, third twice and fourth once.

In the seven years before Arteta joined Arsenal the club had come second once, third once, fourth twice, fifth twice, and sixth.

Now the argument countering this is that Arteta has now had time to get things sorted out, but that argument assume that the rest of the Premier League stands still and waits for Arsensal to catch up.  But this is not true.  In 2024 the top two, you will of course recall, got 89 points and 91 points.

In 2023 it was 89 points and 84 points.   In 2022 it was 93 and 92 points.  In 2021 the top two had 86 and 74 points.  

So the total number of points of the top two has been 173 points, 185 points, 160 points, and 180 points.  That is quite a set of variations meaning that whether one wins the league or not depends on whether the main club you are fighting against is having a good season or not.

Already people are writing Arsenal out of the race, noting that Arsenal are only third on goal difference.

But Arsenal have played three of the major clubs of last season already. Last season after seven games we had only played one.   The season before that it was only one.  And if you want to go back further then you might recall that after three games in 2021/22  Arsenal were bottom with no points.  Tottenham were top with nine.  

Oh how they crowed – and indeed still crowed after the end of the season when they managed to come in a whole two points ahead of Arsenal despite being given a nine point start.

Taking one game at a time might be a good way of focussing on football as a manager and a player, but it is obviously not very helping in trying to understand the ebb and flow of the game. 

So tomorrow we play Shakhtar Donetsk.

They stand fourth in their league having won six drawn one and lost three – all played in the midst of war.  Uefa.com is obviously out to help their war achievements by running the banner headline

Shakhtar | UEFA Europa League 2024/25   

And then you click on it and you get “Shakhtar aren’t playing in UEFA Europa League this season”

In reality the results in the champs league have been Shakhtar Donetsk 0 Atalanta 3, and Bologna 0 Shakhtar Donetsk 0.

More anon.

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