On 2 February Arsenal play Manchester City in a game that is of course on TV, with kick-off time moved to 4.30 pm to accommodate their needs.
It’s a game that we know could turn the general statistics of each side upside down. And indeed that is exactly what happened with the game against Tottenham, in which (for example) Tottenham’s possession figures dropped from a season average for the club of just under 58% possession per game, down to a rather paltry 46% for that match.
In the Premier League, Manchester City are currently recording an average possession rate of 61.1% (and indeed in their Champions League games that figure is even higher). So the issue for Arsenal must surely once again be how to reduce that possession rate.
The injury list remains high, and it is unlikely that any of those injured at present will be anywhere near ready to play in this match. Which means Bukayo Saka, Ben White, Ethan Nwaneri, Takehiro Tomiyasu, and Gabriel Jesus are all out. But Riccardo Calafiori might be available again, but if so I’d expect to see him on the bench.
It is interesting on the betting apps for sports fans what the bookies are saying about this match, usually it is a crunch game for the race for the title, but the odds have been turned upside down this season haven’t they. As a stand-alone match, the clever money will surely be on Arsenal, but as we know, when both teams face off, anything can and usually does happen.
Of course all these injuries raise the issue of buying replacements and backups. The problem here is that if the club buys a top player to replace one of the injured, the incomer will expect and indeed demand that he is the first choice. But of course it is quite possible that when the injured player returns, he too will demand to be first choice. As a result conflict and discontent ensues. And that is before we consider how Arsenal’s finances are running in relation to the current (and next year’s new) financial regulations.
There is also the issue of players like Martinelli who can from time to time lose form. Martinelli as we know, at the top of his game, was an amazing balance to Saka on the other side of the pitch – the defenders literally didn’t know where they should be looking.
But then Martinelli, as often happens to younger players, suffered a dip in form, and is only now getting it back. So the question arises, do Arsenal allow Martinelli to get his form back by playing him, even when he is not at 100% of the level he was at previously? But if not, how does he get his form back?
Such are the questions that only the manager and those working closely with him can answer each day, taking into account each player’s fitness, his form, his attitude, and the question of how he will react if he is dropped to the bench for a few games. Some, we know, will respond positively, while others will take the attitude, “if all I’m doing is sitting on the bench at Arsenal, I’d sooner leave.”
Thankfully these issues don’t affect us in every position. So of course Raya will be in goal – that is easy. And in front of him, Saliba and Gabriel – assuming of course that these players are not injured, or have not got a partner who is about to give birth, or a parent who is sadly at the end of life, or any other mental distraction which can, even with the most professional of players, reduce a player’s ability to focus.
Meanwhile Timber has settled in, and Lewis-Skelly has been an absolute revelation, meaning he will surely keep his position.
In midfield Declan Rice is appearing, and seemingly well in control, but has been substituted near the end of games, suggesting he is still rebuilding his fitness as indeed has happened to Odegaard. But even if not fully fit for the complete game, the ability and understanding of these two make them essential. As for Partey, Arteta recently said, “This year, he’s been so consistent…that’s a big thing, he’s a massive player for us,” which tells us who is in the team.
This leaves us with the forward line. In recent seasons we have had endless demands for Arsenal to sign a centre forward, despite the club being the second highest scorers in the league for the last two campaigns.
A new centre forward might well bring in more goals, but that would change the entire way the team operates, which is one of sharing out the goals. Havertz has 12 this season, and so is the obvious choice. The next two highest scorers are unavailable (Saka and Jesus) meaning Martinelli is really likely to play being the second highest scorer this season who is available. Behind him in the scoring charts is Trossard, and this pretty much picks the attacking players, and completes the team.
However Arsenal seem to be in the midst of a flurry of injuries, and beyond that first XI noted above it is not really clear who will come in.
I was not impressed with Sterling in the Tottenham game; he looked like a player who needed some games to get his form back, and with Arsenal pushing to win every match I am not sure he is going to get them.
Ethan Nwaneri has been out injured since getting a muscle injury during the draw at Brighton. But he has looked superb and if he is fit, he’s at the very least going to be on the bench, and expect to come on at some stage.
And that pretty much is the line up and main backups that I would go for. The rest of the bench I fear might well be young players who are there to give them match day (but not match) experience.
