- Match of the day gives biggest possible condemnation of referee in Wolverhampton game
- Arsenal suffer the worst referee error of the season so far, but still win!
By Tony Attwood
It is fundamental to the reporting of referees in England that the media do not mention how massively refereeing varies from one referee to another, although in recent years the data has been revealed on line. But because the media utterly refuse to note refereeing oddities, they are then able to be surprised by individual events such as yesterday’s sending off.
But the most cursory glance at the referee data that is published constantly by WhoScored shows that referees follow their own tracks, and it is quite possible to know in advance what is going to happen, once you know who the referee is. Indeed this is exactly what we have been doing for some time, in terms of predicting match outcomes.
What we haven’t done is predict the outcome of matches in terms of cards shown, and yet once again this can be done once one knows the referee. Just look at the number of cards given out per game by different referees in the Premier League and you can see at once that how many players a team is left with at the end of a game depends on which referee is running the show.
But if you don’t want to plough through all the numbers, here’s the simple fact. Michael Oliver gives out red cards at a higher rate than anyone else. So high in fact he hands them out at DOUBLE the rate of Anthony Taylor, Jonathan Moss, Chris Kavanagh, and TREBLE the rate of (OR MORE) referees Coote, Friend, Pawson, Dean, Atkinson, Madely, Banks, England or Attwell.
Now as we know for the media this information seems to be utterly off-limits. And to help keep up the myth that the behaviour of the referee and assistant against Arsenal was unusual, the media highlighted the matter.
But then instead of continuing to investigate how such an error could arise, after running the story that the sending-off was wrong they move the story on via a bigger headline PGMOL ‘appalled’ by abuse of referee Michael Oliver after Arsenal red card and then after that Police investigate death threats to referee Michael Oliver after Myles Lewis-Skelly red card.
So within the space of a few hours the focus is not on how on earth a referee of such experience could be so awful in his judgement and then even worse, be backed up by those paid to give him information from the sidelines having watched the video review. Instead the focus is on the behaviour of fans. In fact it is no longer a referee issue, and has never been a PGMO issue, is it a fans issue! Someone somewhere supposedly issues a death threat. Exceedingly unpleasant and if it happened to me I would be frightened, but it should not be allowed to overshadow the key issue.
For in reality this affair absolutely is a PGMO issue. The decision itself was utterly wrong as broadcasters at the time made completely clear, and the backup decision from the VAR team was also utterly wrong. In short of group of PGMO senior employees made an absolute cockup, and we need to know how and why.
But instead, the focus is turned on the fans. And I am absolutely NOT saying that threats against the referee and his team are reasonable or right in any way. Of course not. What is clever is that what should be a story about gross incompetence and/or bias has been quickly turned into a tirade against fans as the BBC report shows.
Whatever the outcome, we know what will not be the outcome. PGMO will receive none of the blame, although they are the ultra-secretive organisation that employs this referee, and indeed all the Premier League referees, whose decisions have become increasingly weird in the last few years.
Of course people make mistakes and referees are indeed people. But what is outrageous, but carefully given a much lower level of publicity, is that the VAR assistants backed the referee, when almost everyone else felt the decision was wrong. And sadly the furore around this means that the focus on how the VAR referees could get this so wrong has been lost.
Arteta certainly understood this when he told BBC Match of the Day the decision was “so obvious that today you don’t need my words”. And indeed even Alan Shearer, not generally known as an Arsenal supporter said the sending-off was “one of the worst decisions I’ve seen in a long time”. He added, and I think this is the important bit, “How on earth Darren England, the VAR, thinks that the referee has got that right and there is no need to send him to the screen…. “It should have been a yellow card, it is a terrible decision. There was no speed, no intensity, it was not endangering an opponent and was 90 yards from goal, so never, ever a red card.
“What worries me is there is an assistant VAR and a VAR who have seen several replays and they think it is serious foul play.”
Of course, there might be an appeal but for now, the player is on a three-match ban just at the time when Arsenal are facing some tough upcoming games.
If Arsenal let this go, then it gives PGMO free rein to influence matches through such wrong decisions. We know from the stats we publish each week, they have referees who can be almost guaranteed not to oversee a home win or not to oversee an away win, a revealed by their track record. And we know that Arsenal have been targeted in terms of dishing out yellows (remember the Declan Rice card). It is now the case of whether they are going to be given the freedom to get away with ever more weird decisions.
And for the moment it looks like they are..
Tony, the statement “Michael Oliver gives out red cards at a higher rate than anyone else” should perhaps be qualified by the addition of “to Arsenal players”
All this is all so predictable.
This is what I said at 10:00am yesterday:
“Personally I will be amazed if the Red Card is overturned. This requires the Premier League to tell their star man he got it wrong. And worse, tell all their puppets in Stockley Park that despite several replays from different angels they still saw nothing wrong with Olivers decision.
Despite a surprisingly united media that this was in fact a very poor decision, I just cant see it being overturned. They WILL find a way to justify it and defend their officials”.
Then this at 1:53 yesterday:
“I cant wait to hear how that Pigmob puppet Dermot Gallagher justifies everything that happened yesterday, and more over how Sky Sports will allow him to do so unchallenged.”
Then this at 6:39 yesterday:
“And as we see today, the PGMOL are already doubling down in their support of the officials, claiming the tackle was ‘high and extremely late’. Really? It was a trip. Cynical a well deserving of a yellow. But high and extremely late? What a joke. Not only is there zero hope of any reprimand for any of the officials, I believe one, Darren England, is again already on VAR duty today. Despite all todays criticism, tomorrow we will witness the whitewash on SKY in it’s full glory”.
It seems I was wrong. We didn’t even have to wait. It started yesterday.
After seeing the Pigmobs statement I summarised with:
“I said SKY would turn this on it’s head and that is exactly what they have started to do. Mark my words, by tomorrow afternoon it will be all Arsenals fault”.
All so utterly, embarrassingly, shamefully so predictable.
I have read so many damming stats about Michael Oliver and his biased treatment of Arsenal it is ridiculous. The most obvious of which is how many reds he has given us compared to Man City (zero) who’s owners pay him a fortune to referee in the UAE. Hmmmm.
Now I’m going to be vague here because I cant for the life of me find the comment I read yesterday, but basically a few years ago Oliver sent an Arsenal player off that in itself was by all accounts a poor decision. But the point is, apparently he received on line abuse for that, supposedly from Arsenal fans, and from that day onwards he has become the Michael Oliver we all know and love.
Olivers stats are damming. I am too busy and cant research all this but I hope someone else can, especially the link to that previous red. If I find it I will put it up.
There is an excellent article on Arseblog titled ‘Howard Webb and the PGMOL are failing everyone’
Mick Shelly
There is also a good article on Givemesport showing Olivers statistics in there full glory.
He is simply biased at best. I think he is a cheat.
This is what I said yesterday.
Michael Oliver … the same referee that sent off Martinelli for two yellow cards issued in one instance. The purpose of a caution (yellow card) is to tell a player to moderate his behaviour, this of course did not happen but the media wholeheartedly endorsed this decision. Now Lewis Skelly is sent off for what should be a caution, I don’t like to criticise referees, it is a difficult job, but for whatever reason Oliver doesn’t seem to be able to apply the laws of the game to Arsenal in the same way as he applies them to others. We all have bias in our wasy of seeing things and Oliver clearly has a bias against Arsenal, doesn’t make him a bad referee just makes it inappropriate to appoint him to Arsenal games. The real problem is the PGMOL can obviously see this but lack the backbone to do anything about it. That said it is the 4th sending off for Arsenal this season two of which were administered by Oliver, the first being Trossard at Man City. Any reasonable organisation would see that Oliver has a bias against Arsenal and act accordingly so that he doesn’t have the opportunity to exercise that bias. That would mean not refereeing and not being involved in VAR in any further games involving Arsenal. I’m not holding my breath for an outbreak of fair play though!
Mick Shelly
Thanks for that. Very interesting.
The author asks:
“They have got this one very, very wrong, and unless they come to their senses, every football fan, football club, manager, player, should be really worried. They are fundamentally failing everyone in the game, including their own officials. At this point, serious consideration needs to be given to how it is being run, and who it is being run by.”
“….AND WHO IT (THE PGMOL) IS BEING RUN BY”
I’ve been saying it for years. THE MEDIA, and mainly SKY Sports.
They are the PGMOL’s mouth piece and first line of defence. Today they will double down on the stance they started to adopt towards the end of yesterday. They will deflect everything away from the initial incident and turn it into a debate about on-line abuse.
They will put their the PGMOL puppet Gallegher up to defend Oliver and inform us yet again how wonderful he is.
They will not even mention the litany of errors that all reasonable fans agree he has made.
To quote Jammie Redknap “He is the best referee we have and I can count on one hand the mistakes he has made”
Beyond laughable. As one guy said, you cant count on one hand the mistakes he made yesterday. But SKY Sports will stand by that and double down on it again and again.
And this is what I mean by the PGMOL being run by the media, primarily SKY.
The editorial decision of SKY Sports is what will determine how this episode resolves itself.
If SKY Sports had decided to stand by their initial reaction, or least that of a majority of their ‘pundits’, that it was a terrible decision then The PGMOL would of acknowledged a mistake and rescinded the red card. We move on.
If SKY Sports decide, which it appears they have, to back down on their initial evaluation of the incident and back The PGMOL, Oliver and the VAR mob they will all be exonerated of any blame.
The entire outcome from this depends solely on how the media, and SKY Sports in particular, evaluate the incident.
SKY SPORTS RUNS THE PGMOL
The main stream media will all fall in line. As I said yesterday, my bet is that by the end of the day it will be Arsenals fault.
Articles like the ones in Arseblog, Givemesport, The Football terrace, and Untold Arsenal, as brilliant as they are, are irrelevant.
Give me sport analysis of the FACTS
Team
Appearances Fouls per Game Fouls per tackle Penalties per Game Yellow Cards Yellow Cards per Game Red Cards Red Cards per Game
Liverpool
57 10.28 0.56 0.11 83 1.46 1 0.02
Arsenal
55 11.02 0.63 0.24 97 1.76 8 0.15
Everton
52 11.13 0.61 0.12 90 1.73 5 0.10
Manchester City
50 9.26 0.63 0.16 68 1.36 0 0
Tottenham
45 11.73 0.60 0.18 81 1.80 5 0.11
Chelsea
44 10.73 0.56 0.05 68 1.55 2 0.05
Manchester United
43 11.58 0.68 0.14 82 1.91 3 0.07
West Ham
40 10.15 0.62 0.15 63 1.58 3 0.08
Stats show offences given against each team.
Conclusive proof of bias.
Graham
These are the Oliver stats as shown by Givemesport, which may even be your source.
And for any that tries to infer that it may be that Arsenal are just ‘dirtier’ than Man City I ask, why haven’t any other referees got such skewed numbers? Explain that.
And why do we get about a red every 10 games in the Premier League under Arteta, but just ONE in 49 matches in Europe. Explain that?
The thing with stats is they are a fact. They are objective, not subjective.
What can be subjective is how they are interpreted. So to counter subjectivity you can do two things:
-Provide as many statistics as possible over as much time as possible.
-Provide context.
If a referee appears to be biased against Arsenal in 1 match that proves very little as almost every team will be able to find something similar.
But if you can show that he appears to be biased against Arsenal in many games over a long period that needs to be explained.
If a referee appears to give a lot of red cards to Arsenal that proves very little on it’s own.
But if he gives far more red cards to Arsenal than any other team over a long period of time, that needs to be explained.
Given these statistics and their context, my conclusion is that Michael Oliver is at best biased against Arsenal, and at worst a cheat.
If you don’t agree explain why not. Simply saying ‘you are a slave to statistics’ or ‘you can make statistics say anything’ is a cop out. I am not and no you cant.
You cannot argue with the statistics. THEY ARE FACTS.
You can argue with the conclusions, but to do so you have to come up with another plausible explanation as to why Michael Oliver’s numbers are so completely and utterly, weighted against Arsenal in every parameter.
https://www.givemesport.com/michael-oliver-stats-arsenal-premier-league-teams/
I am astounded to see that Dermot Gallagher has said that in his opinion Oliver made a mistake by issuing a red card to MSL.
It seems pigs can fly after all.
Mick Shelly
Me too. To say I am shocked is an understatement.
But lets be clear here, it was a ridiculous decision. Someone I read said, whether that type of cynical trip should be a yellow or a red is debatable. And I agree.
None of us like them, but often as not the perpetrator gets praised by the media for a ‘clever’ foul. Or for a ‘Tactical’ foul. Or for taking one for the team. Rightly or wrongly that is how those offences are seen and rightly or wrongly they always get a yellow card. And that is where the problem started. Why did Oliver AND VAR chose on this occasion to see it as a red card when clearly under current protocol it is not?
And even after the initial balls up a lot of this nonsense could of been avoided if the PGMOL had just put their hands up and said we cocked up. Or rather Oliver and VAR cocked up. But no. Webb is so arrogant he simply couldn’t, or wouldn’t admit it.
That being said, none of this changes the problem with Oliver and his bias against Arsenal.
HE still couldn’t wait to issue a red.
HIS numbers against us are diabolical.
As such, questions still have to be asked as to what is going on with him and Arsenal?
In conclusion, by doing what they did, Webb and the PGMOL have actually made it worse for Oliver. The furore has meant all these stats have been highlighted and it doesn’t look good for Oliver. Whether in the final analysis it will actually makes any difference who knows, but the fact is the football World can no longer deny that these warped stats against Arsenal exist. Whenever he referees us the spotlight will be on him more than ever.
The problem is, maybe that’s what he likes.
Now the next thing is, will the red card be rescinded. I still have my doubts.
The one thing which could result in the red card being rescinded is that the reviewing panel is run by the FA and not PGMOL.
Having said that it has not helped that Webb has given his full backing to the Oliver red card decision, as I guess they will not wish to be seen as undermining Webb and the PGMOL. Plus of course it is very unusual for any red card to be cancelled as shown in the vast majority of cases in the past who’s attempts have failed.
Mick Shelly
It wont be rescinded of that I have no doubt.
I agree Nitram. I would give us a 10% chance of success.
Normally I am a glass full kind of guy but on this occasion the glass is almost empty!
I have just watched the video clip of the red card given to Fernandez for a similar challenge on Maddison which was rescinded on appeal. If anything it looks worse than MLS’s challenge.
Arsenal are apparently going to present that as a precedent. On that basis we should also have ours overturned.
The only problem I can see is that Fernandez plays for Man U and MLS plays for Arsenal, more than sufficient grounds to reject our appeal.
Mick Shelly
Just found it, and yep definitely worse.
If Arsenal are using that they have to rescind it, surely?