By Tony Attwood
So here we go: League match 36. After this we have Newcastle at home and Southampton away and that’s it for another season. And we find at this moment that any of the five teams immediately below Arsenal could end up with more points than Arsenal if they win most or all of their games and Arsenal lose all their games.
And a defeat today will certainly bring a lot of that gnashing of teeth and self-induced media anger, even though the next two fixtures of Newcastle at home and Southampton away look very winnable. But I won’t dwell on those now – we’ll do the usual preview for each when the time comes.
Here’s the table with the maximum points for each team shown in the final column
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | Max | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 35 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 81 | 35 | 46 | 82 | 91 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 35 | 18 | 13 | 4 | 64 | 31 | 33 | 67 | 76 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 67 | 43 | 24 | 65 | 71 |
| 4 | Newcastle United | 35 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 66 | 45 | 21 | 63 | 72 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 35 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 62 | 41 | 21 | 63 | 72 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 36 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 56 | 49 | 7 | 63 | 69 |
| 7 | Nottingham Forest | 35 | 18 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 42 | 12 | 61 | 70 |
So as you can see, with a certain set of results – meaning bad for Arsenal and good for others – Arsenal could slip right out of the European places. That seems unlikely however whatever the result is in today’s game. Arsenal won’t lose all three, and the rest won’t win them all.
But looking at this table does bring home to me a couple of other points. First Arsenal still have the best defence in the league, and also have the fourth best attack in the league – and that despite the most catastrophic run of injuries that we have had for quite a few years. Just think what this team could do without such a bad injury run.
And maybe the game against Liverpool today isn’t a totally forgone conclusion. After all Arsenal in 1997-98 and Chelsea in 2005-06. both lost consecutive Premier League games after winning the title, so such matters have been known. Certainly, no player wants to risk an injury right at the end of the season when there is nothing to play for, but the usual load of meaningless internationals beckoning.
Plus Liverpool do on occasion lose consecutive games. They did it in 2023 losing to the not so mighty Bournemouth and then Manchester City. And they are so used to winning at home they could well forget the need to focus. They’ve not been beaten at their ground since 14 Septmeber. But there is the issue of Salah who is two goals away from the record number of Premier League goals – which was set by a certain Thierry Henry in 2002/3.
As for Arsenal the last time we lost four in a row was seven years ago – and there were special reasons for that, as it was in February and March 2018 when the media launched its massive anti-Wenger campaign which some in the crowd saw fit to support. That’s what you get when you do what the media tells you to do.
But we do have one extra weapon worthy of note. Saka has scored four times in his last five League games against Liverpool.
So for the teams…. The Standard offer us
Raya;
Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly;
Odegaard, Partey, Rice;
Saka, Merino, Martinelli
Pain in the Arsenal suggest
Raya;
White, Saliba, Kiwior, Calafiori
Partey, Rice, Odegaard,
Saka, Merino, Trossard
The Metro however suggest a bit of mixing it all up
Raya;
White, Saliba, Kiwior, Calafiori
Odegaard,, Partey, Rice,
Saka, Trossard, Martinelli
Which by and large seems to cover most of the options. We shall, of course, see in due course. Kick off is a 4.30pm for TV reasons with no regard to how Arsenal supporters might get back to London after the end of the game with Sunday timetables.
A tale of 2 halves. Surprised the disallowed goal call went our way. Switched off a few times but were very resilient and composed with 10 men. A needed and deserved point.
Great comeback against a determined and resolute referee. Oops, sorry Liverpool.
What a comedian that referee is.
Liverpool fouls 13 for 1 yellow
Arsenal 10 fouls for 3 yellows
Bradley finally gets a yellow after 60 minutes. That should of been his 3rd yellow card at least. He could of had 2 in the first 15 minutes.
Then of course our customary ‘letter of the law’ 2nd yellow for Merino, which not only stopped our charge for a winner, but puts us another man down for the difficult home match against Newcastle. As I suggested could happen a few weeks ago, our final 2 matches have now become crucial because Champions League football is still NOT guaranteed.
It does look as though 1 point will be enough for CL football, but it could well be only on GD.
The worst case scenario for us is if the following 4 teams win both their final 2 matches, which isn’t beyond the realms of possibility. I’ve added the points that 2 wins will leave them on:
Newcastle 72
Man City 71
Chelsea 69
Aston Villa 69
Forest losing at home to Chelsea means they end the season on 65 points.
If we do lose at home to Newcastle, that means securing a point at Southampton on the final day could be crucial to give us the 69 points we will probably need to secure Champions League football next season. Given what happened to Man City there yesterday outlines how you can never take anything for granted.
Our far superior Goal Difference would be our saving grace meaning we would finish 4th on equal 69 points with Chelsea and Aston Villa:
1st Liverpool
2nd Newcastle on 72
3rd Man City on 71
4th Arsenal 69 + 33
5th Chelsea 69 + 19
6th Aston V 69 + 7
I know it’s worst case scenario, and a bit pessimistic, but never the less, as someone once famously said, it could be ‘Squeaky Bum time’.
Gooner72
“Surprised the disallowed goal call went our way”
So was I, but Taylor deserves no credit for it. It was as clear a foul as you are likely to see. I know that doesn’t always mean much with us, but still.
Miles Skelly was also hauled to the ground by his neck in the first half and he didn’t even give a foul.
I thought we dominated half of the first half and probably should of been 2 up before they scored.
We dominated the second half and possibly would of gone on to get a winner had Taylor not applied the Arsenal Only rule book.
Yes, a well deserved point, at least, and as I point out above, you are correct. A crucial one.
Proud of Arsenal today. It is hard to play against 12 men with 11 and even harder with 10.
We outclassed Liverpool for most of the game and were guilty of falling asleep in a couple of critical incidents. But why no VAR offside check for both Liverpool goals.? Why no foul (never mind a card!) for Robertson trying to strangle Saka? Why was Bradley assault on Lewis Skelly (the worst of several) only a yellow?
I don’t know why !’m asking these questions, because I really know the answer. It’s quite simply Mr. Anthony Taylor once again. There will be real disappointment in PGMOL that he didn’t do enough to secure the 3 points for Liverpool despite his efforts on their behalf.
I said before the game that if I was a betting person, I would have put £20 pounds on a penalty or red card against us.
Liverpool a largely a long-ball hoofing team to Salah – MLS and co largely kept him quiet as did KT in the closing stages. With a bit more luck we’d have got points.
Sorry Merino will miss Newcastle game, hope Rice will be back