Liverpool v Arsenal: how one referee sees so many more penalties than another

 

 

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Anthony Taylor is the referee.  He will referee Liverpool for the 66th time and Arsenal for the 55th – he has previously officiated this fixture four times.

Taylor has refereed 29 games this season – far more than any of his rivals in the Premier League this season.

In terms of awarding fouls he is very much in the lower reaches – only seeing 84% of the fouls that Robert Jones sees, for example.   But despite this he is curiously prone to blowing up for penalties.   Amazingly he gives almost four times as many penalties as  Michael Oliver.

It only takes a second to realise this is ludicrous – how can two of the referees at the very top of PGMO have penalty form of such a different nature?  In short, Oliver awards a penalty four times as often as Taylor – and that is bonkers.  There might be some difference of opinion between referees, but with all the technology and replays at their disposal, with VAR and everything else, how can one referee see four times as many penalties as another?

And of course that is an embarrassing question – so not surprisingly one that the media never, ever asks.  This tells us something about who controls media reporting of games.  It is, in part at least, PGMOL.  (The only alternative to that notion, is one  that suggests the media all get together and agree not ever to raise the question of why one referee sees so many more penalties than another, which seems rather unlikely).

And yet despite blowing up for penalties right left and centre Taylor only hands out a fraction of the yellow cards that other referees do!!!  In fact several senior referees are regularly handing out nearly twice as many yellows per game as Mr Taylor!

So how can this be?  More penalties than anyone else, but fewer yellow cards than everyone else???   No wonder the Premier League is losing all faith in PGMOL and refusing to give its referees a pay rise.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the League’s position is that the refs can get a pay rise when they start showing some consistency between games and clubs.  I can only hope that at the next AGM Arsenal ask for PGMOL to lost the contract.

Here are the details of a few of the most regularly seen referees this season.  And remember we are not saying that each referee should have exactly the same figures, but that the difference between Taylor and Oliver over penalties and cards is simply ludicrous and cannot reflect reality.

 

Referee	Games	Fouls pg	Pen pg	Yel pg
Anthony Taylor	29	21.21	0.31	2.86
Michael Oliver	24	23.58	0.08	4.54
Chris Kavanagh	23	21.26	0.13	4.43
Robert Jones	21	25.00	0.19	4.24
John Brooks	15	22.67	0.20	5.33

 

But Arsenal do have something going for them in this game against Liverpool – unless of course Mr Taylor reads this and then deliberately changes his normal style and approach because of what we have said.   Just look at the results of these three referees – three of the most regularly seen referees in the league.  Data from WhoScored.

 

Referee	Games	Home Win	Away Win	Draw
Anthony Taylor	29	27.6%	51.7%	20.7%
Peter Bankes	22	54.5%	36.4%	9.1%
Robert Jones	21	19.0%	38.1%	42.9%

 

Anthony Taylor sees about a quarter of his games end as home wins, but over half end as away wins.   Peter Banks sees over half of his games end as home wins but only a third as away wins.   Rober Jones sees an incredible 43% of his games end as draws, but under one in five end as home wins.

Could such figures happen by chance?   Well, yes, in that anything can happen by chance.  Aliens could arrive from another planet and end up in my back garden this afternoon, by chance. (although I hope not – I’m taking part in a VE Day celebration this afternoon).  But the chance of aliens is so low we can pretty much ignore it. 

Now obviously this doesn’t mean Arsenal will win.  Some Tayloresque games do end up as home wins, and it is possible that because I have written and published this PGMO will phone Taylor and tell him to reverse his normal strategy and ensure this is a home win.

And of course, all figures can be explained by chance.  But generally with differences so pronounced scientists tend to dismiss chance as playing a major part in what happens.   Yes a volcano could open up in my back garden by chance this afternoon, but it remains rather unlikely.

But as ever, we shall see.   More tomorrow.