Arsenal v Brighton tonight: Brighton as favourites?

 

 

By Tony Attwood

Sop first of all, apologies; I think I confused my palace with my Brighton.  It is not Palace tonight who are playing Arsenal.     It is Brighton.  I have an excuse, but it is rather boring, so I won’t bother you with it, and besides I seem to be recovering.

The thing about Brighton is that they have injuries – lots of them.  Adam Webster, Solomon March, Jack Hinshelwood, James Milner, Kaoru Mitoma, Joel Veltman and Brajan Gruda.  According to  Premier Injuries, all are unavailable.

As can be seen from the table below, Brighton have not had too much luck away from home this season…  They have however scored seven goals away from the coast this campaign, but then again Arsenal have only let in one goal at home.   I suspect those attending the match might be very upset if another one goes in tonight.

 

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Arsenal home 5 4 1 0 12 1 11 13
10 Brighton and Hove Albion away 5 1 1 3 7 10 -3 4

 

Across the eras, starting in 1935 for reasons that will not become clear at this point, Arsenal have played Brighton 32 times.  Arsenal have won 17, Brighton have won eight and there have been seven draws.

Now we know from recent weeks that the media love to find statistics to show that this is going to be a very troublesome match for Arsenal, and I think we can help them here by looking at the last nine games, which are enough for any journalist to claim that Brighton is Arsenal’s bogey team.

For in those nine games, all of which have taken place in this decade, Brighton have won three, Arsenal have won three, and amazingly, that means three have been three draws.   Even more exciting for the journalistic naysayers if we just look at the games at Arsenal’s ground, it is three wins to Brighton, one draw and one to Arsenal.

 

Date Game Res Score Competition
9 Apr 2022 Arsenal v Brighton and Hove L 1-2 Premier League
9 Nov 2022 Arsenal v Brighton and Hove L 1-3 League Cup
14 May 2023 Arsenal v Brighton and Hove L 0-3 Premier League
17 Dec 2023 Arsenal v Brighton and Hove W 2-0 Premier League
31 Aug 2024 Arsenal v Brighton and Hove D 1-1 Premier League

 

And yes, it is true, Brighton have been having a jolly time of it of late for in their last five games they have won three, scoring 11 goals and conceding two.   One has been a draw and one a defeat.

But there is a little more to say about all this.   The first of this run of five games was away to Barnsley in the League Cup; Barnsley are 11th in League One and have only managed to win half their games at home this season, obviously against other League One sides.

After that, Brighton beat Chelsea away in the Premier League, which of course, we must commend.   Then Brighton drew away with Wolverhampton in the league – Wolverhampton, who have not won a single league game this season and have managed just two draws, including one against Brighton.

Then it was that victory over Newcastle, and that sounds good, although it was in a run of Newcastle games in which Newcastle was having success beating Union St Gilloise (which I mistakenly thought was a cigarette company,  and Nottingham Forest who are as good as relegated and have just appointed their seventh manager since 2020.   And then Newcastle beat Fulham, which turns out to be not that difficult, what with everyone thinking about their restaurant rather than their football match.

In their most recent game, Brighton lost 4-2 to Manchester United.  Making it three wins, three draws and three defeats in nine.

In the league, it is in defence that the difference can primarily be seen, with Brighton having the fifth-worst defence in the league and conceding 12 more league goals than Arsenal since the season started.

We can also compare the clubs for last season and perhaps take a particular note of Arsenal’s defence compared to Brighton’s.

 

s Team P W D L F A GD Pts
2 Arsenal 38 20 14 4 69 34 35 74
8 Brighton and Hove Albion 38 16 13 9 66 59 7 61

Data from 11v11

Brighton did win more games away than they lost last season, but their away goal difference was just +3; so not the best of all achievements.

There’s one more post to come before the game, where we can try and look at the referee and the team selection.

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