ByNitram
A brief assessment of the last three and a half years and the remarkable statistic it bears (Up to the 1/1/26, the half-way point in the season)
And a look at how some very strange penalty statistics could impact on Arsenal
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We are now just over half way through the season and as you will all be well aware, at the half way point Arsenal sat proudly on top, six points clear of nearest rivals Manchester City. Since then we have gone even further. This is how the top of the table looks today:
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 26 | 48 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 44 | 18 | 26 | 42 |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 42 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 34 |
It’s wonderful to see us top of the table at this time of the year, but of course this isn’t the first time this has happened in the last few years. But alas, we know to our cost it means very little. Being top in May is all that counts if you want to win the title. Nevertheless, this got me thinking. As we have been in and around the top 2 for three and a half seasons now, I wondered how we had done points-wise over that period, in comparison to the 2 teams that have pipped us to the title, Man City and Liverpool. And a quite remarkable stat it is.
This is how the table would look if we added together all the points from seasons 22/23, 23/24, 24/25, and up to the halfway point this season, 25/26.:
| Team | Played | Points |
| Arsenal | 133 | 292 |
| Manchester City | 133 | 292 |
| Liverpool | 133 | 263 |
Yep, unbelievably, after three and a half years, Arsenal and Manchester City are inseparable points-wise. But we are both a significant 27 points ahead of Liverpool.
Yet despite that remarkable statistic, Man City have won the title twice, Liverpool once, and of course Arsenal not at all, which is I’m sure you’ll agree, extremely frustrating.
But things are improving, step by step for as of Monday 5th of January that table moved to Arsenal having 295 points, Machester City 293 points and Liverpool 264 points. So yes we are a couple of points clear f Man City.
We have clearly been as good as Man City and we are clearly better than Liverpool. Yet no Cigar. So, why is that? Well, I believe it’s most likely been a combination of factors.
First and foremost, injuries. We have had lots of crucial players out for extremely lengthy periods, and often at the same time. Also, nerves may have played a part in certain crucial matches. And finally, and by no means least, there is the issue of referees and VAR. Now I appreciate I will get stick from not only opposing fans, but also some of our own, but I truly believe the PGMOL have played a significant role in our failure to get across the line.
The problem with this accusation is that it is very hard to prove, because of the subjective nature of so many decisions. But to give an idea of how the three teams are comparatively treated, I thought I would take a look at the penalty statistics.
Penalties of course can be crucial. For example, I believe they played a not insignificant role in Liverpool’s triumph last season. Nine penalties FOR, just the two AGAINST. Compare that to Arsenal’s paltry two penalties for compounded by the three against! That is a huge variation.
And surely, if there is significant bias in the way penalties are awarded, that bias would exist across all the other parameters as well? If the officials favour (or otherwise) a team with penalties, surely it is highly likely they are doing the same across the board? Well, let’s see.
Note: As a kind of ‘control’ I have also considered the 4th most consistent team over the same period, Chelsea.
So, what I looked at first was the last three and a half years talked about above. The three years we have come, second, second and second and now sit first.
The first number is penalties FOR the second AGAINST
- Arsenal 19 – 11
- Man City 20 – 13
- Liverpool 29 – 9
- Chelsea 22 – 12
So as you can see, the penalty count between Arsenal and Man City is almost as close as the points. Chelsea are not a long way outside those numbers either. There is very little between us, suggesting we have been neither favoured or otherwise over the last three and a half years when it comes to penalties, at least in relation to Manchester City and Chelsea. The same cannot be said when it comes to Liverpool.
It appears last season was no anomaly. They are such massive outliers this simply cannot happen by chance alone. So I thought I would look deeper. Surely those numbers cannot happen over 10 years, can they?
Well these are the penalty stats For and Against over the last ten years.
- Arsenal 52 – 51
- Man City 70 – 36
- Liverpool 66 – 30
- Chelsea 60 – 30
Those numbers are bonkers!!
Arsenal have been awarded just ONE more penalty than they have conceded. For a team whose average finishing position (including where we sit today) over that 10 year period is 4.5. That is mad.
Man City have conceded just over half the number of penalties they have been awarded. Now I can accept that to a degree, as their average finishing position is 1.6, but come on: that big a difference? It gets worse as we look at the other two teams.
Liverpool’s numbers are mad. Their average finishing position over the last ten years is 3.4, just one position better than Arsenal, yet they have been awarded OVER TWICE the number of penalties they have conceded.
Chelsea’s numbers are also mad, conceding exactly half the number they have received, and their average finishing position over the last 10 years is 4.7. Lower than Arsenal.
How can this be??
Whatever way you look at this, something isn’t right. Those three teams, Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea, all have massive bias in favour of the number of penalties received compared to conceded. Yet somehow Arsenal have been awarded that ONE SINGLE SOLITARY penalty more than they have conceded.
And again, despite this, whenever we have the odd contentious call go our way it’s portrayed in the media as Arsenal getting yet ANOTHER decision in their favour. When a call goes against us, we are told to stop moaning and suck it up because you got away with one 3 years ago!!!!
I’ll be honest here, I pretty much knew before I started that these numbers would be as they are, because I have done similar research before. And what I found when I did was that the bias against us started almost overnight. In fact, the very night Mike Riley took over at the PGMOL. Yep, the very Mike Riley who gave one of the worst, most biased performances ever in Match 50 at Old Trafford. His reward? Being made head of the PGMOL within the year.
We are being cheated. There is no other word for it.
Great stuff as usual Martin
I would bet my house on a similar set of biased results for red cards as well.
This doesn’t surprise me and confirms how refereeing ‘feels’ when you’re an Arsenal supporter. Thanks for the work.
mick shelly
Thank you.
I wouldn’t be surprised if you are right. I have done card stats before and they are never pretty. I may, if I can get round to it, do something similar, but it takes a lot of work.
What I would like to do is both cards and penalties all the way to when Riley took charge, as well as the last 10 and 3 1/2 years.
A lot of work but it would make for some interesting reading I am sure.
My point is, if there is bias in those 2 crucial parameters it is almost certain that level of bias spreads across every parameter.
I’d also add another factor, albeit entirely unquantifiable, and that would be when a penalty is given. I believe I have seen a couple of soft penalties go our way this season, both when we were ahead. It first struck me that this is skewing our stats, these are not the most obvious penalties in games it could make a difference. Of course I don’t believe that it’s chance.
David Staples
Fair point, but as you say, so very hard to prove.
And also of course, none of this has to be blatant cheating. I mean that in the sense that as a rule, ‘stonewall’ penalties ARE usually given, and clear dives are NOT, though even that has happened to our cost. But by and large THEY are NOT the problem.
No, my issue is, and has been for many years, how the more subtle, difficult, 50/50 60/40, 40/60 ones are given. They are the problem.
It would not be cheating if we got 50% of the 50/50’s 60% of the 60/40’s or 40% of the 40/60’s, but quite obviously we don’t, or else if we did, these stats would not be as they are. I bet if you looked at every one of our penalties for and against, there would be a very large proportion that would fall in to that category.
As such, and taking each incident in isolation, for the most part it would be very difficult to call a referee a cheat. But taken as a whole it is clear that the ratios given our way are much lower than would be expected if referees were being totally impartial. If these ‘debatable’ calls went for and against in, what shall we call it, ‘A Natural Way’ then I’m sure our stats would be very different. They don’t.
But why?
I just feel that a vast majority of officials are pre programmed to see things in our opponents favour. Or at least to put it another way, not in our favour. Conversely I think they are pre programmed to see things in Liverpools favour. This doesn’t mean of course Liverpool never get poor decisions given against them, or that Arsenal never get poor decisions in their favour.
This is about a trend of penalty bias AGAINST ARSENAL, and FOR LIVERPOOL over a sustained period of 10 years (it is actually more than that).
It will be interesting to see what sort of nonsense people come up with to justify those stats.
That prnalty to Man 115 vs Brighton i bet Arsemal wont get it…thats why the stats are like that.
Nitram
Fantastic piece of work. I’d love to see the media pick up on this but I won’t hld my breath because I know I’d die!!
Mick Shelley
I did some research on red cards not so long ago although not looking at it from the point of Riley being at the helm as Nitram did. If I recall correctly, it was the from 2020 onwards. And yes you’re absolutely correct, the red card situation is not dissimilar.
I’ll try and dig the data out if I can but I know that we were treated far more harshly than the three “big six clubs” from the north west….and particularly Liverpool. And also treated more harshly that Chelsea. I can’t recall too much more at this point but one of the criteria I know I did look at was the ratio of red cards to fouls over the period and for each season. Its late so I can’t be specific but I definitely remember that in one of the seasons Arsenal had committed the fewest fouls in the Premier League but still got the most red cards. And much of the rest of the data followed a similar pattern.
It’s late and I’ve been down the pub enjoying watching the Manchester clubs and Chelski screw up but I’ll try and dig up the data I collated and attempt to summarise it as and when I can.
Oh happy days…. I mean… pretty much all followers in the top 8 bar newcastle lost points.
This cannot be better.
And City not grabbing Semenyo on Jan1st was as stupid as it gets…
Now Arsenal have to prove their mettle as if they were one points behind City. Don’t let the table distract you and give you a sense of security. Fight like your lives depend on it !
I’m confident however. This should be a fun evening. Just too bad there ain’t no Arsenal fan club in my corner of the world !
I fear that Taylor is a bigger threat than Liverpool, especially since MC115 dropped more points.
@John L,
Arsenal have now somehow have acquired the knack at beating the referees too… just look at the yellow/red card statistics and the penalties against us. I’m rather confident. Just enjoy the game. We’ve got the best team od the past 2 decades playing and having fun doing so.