Arsenal v Liverpool: how one team has an easy build up and the other has it tough

 

 

By Tony Attwood

• • Arsenal v Liverpool: referee is Anthony Taylor; the statistical analysis
  • The last three and a half years and the very remarkable statistic

 

In the simplest of terms, Cristhian Mosquera and Riccardo Calafiori are out of the game, but as happened recently, there are signs that Kai Havertz could be on the bench and could therefore be part of the game.  Max Downman is of course, also still out, as previously indicated.

Arsenal, with just three injuries are now seemingly at the very foot of the injury table – when I saw that, I thought I was holding it upside down, so used are we to the reverse.   But in fact, top of the injury league is Crystal Palace with ten, and then Tottenham Hotspur with nine, which I suppose gives them the excuse they are looking for at this time.

At the other end, only West Ham can equal Arsenal with three.   Liverpool has five men out, although Hugo Ekitike is said to be facing a late fitness test.  But they should not be taken lightly, having won three and drawn three of their last six.  Although we might also note that Arsenal have won seven of their last ten, while Liverpool have won just four.  And they are pretty much middle of the road when it comes to away games (four wins, four defeats in the last ten).

Liverpool, however, is one of a small number of teams that we play regularly who have beaten Arsenal more than the reverse.  The current score is 83 wins to Arsenal and 96 to Liverpool with 66 draws.   But it has been evening upof late, for in the last seven league games, Arsenal have won two, Liverpool have won one, and four have been draws.

And although a draw is not what we want, in the current run, that is what we have been getting

Date	Game	Res	Score
09 Oct 2022	Arsenal v Liverpool	W	3-2
09 Apr 2023	Liverpool v Arsenal	D	2-2
23 Dec 2023	Liverpool v Arsenal	D	1-1
04 Feb 2024	Arsenal v Liverpool	W	3-1
27 Oct 2024	Arsenal v Liverpool	D	2-2
11 May 2025	Liverpool v Arsenal	D	2-2
31 Aug 2025	Liverpool v Arsenal	L	1-0

 

And although another draw is not what we want, in the current state of the league table, it would not be an utter disaster.

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	20	15	3	2	40	14	26	48
2	Manchester City	21	13	4	4	45	19	26	43
3	Aston Villa	21	13	4	4	33	24	9	43
4	Liverpool	20	10	4	6	32	28	4	34

 

Now this season, if you are a regular reader, you will know that we have been commenting on the way in which the matches clubs play in the Premier League are not balanced, with some getting a good run of matches against lesser opposition, while others have the reverse.   Of course, it all balances out in the end, but that is not the point, because of the psychological impact that a run of defeats can have on a team.

And if we look at Liverpool’s last eight league games, we find them playin,g among others, West Ham United (18th), Sunderland (10th), Leeds United (16th), Brighton and Hove Albion (11th), Tottenham Hotspur (14th), Wolverhampton Wanderers (20th), Leeds again (16th) and Fulham 9th).

Now that is quite an extraordinary run – or at least it would be if it were not the sort of thing we are getting used to this season.   Eight consecutive league matches and six of them are against teams in the bottom half of the league, while the remaining two are against teams that are 10th and 9th.

Of course, it can be argued that these fixtures are set out before the season begins, and no one knew what the league table would look like on 8 January, except that we could make a decent guess based on last season’s final table.

The alternative to saying that the fixture list is biased in Liverpool’s favour so that at this point in the season, when many lesser clubs are trying to cope with injuries and are forced to bring in journeymen or reserve players, it is utterly pure chance that Liverpool gets this sort of fixture list.;

Arsenal’s last ten games have included matches against Tottenham (not doing well I know, but local derby games are a different issue), Chelsea (tipped for success by pundits at the start of the season), Brentford (currently fifth), Aston Villa twice (currently third).  So I would say six of those games could count as tougher fixtures, whereas the only fixture that looks difficult for the opposition was that Sunderland game, which they drew.

Now of course, we know that the media will never go into this sort of examination of data since it is an utter fundamental of their approach that absolutely nothing is wrong with anything in the setup of the league, referees, media reporting, or anything else.   But looking at the fixture list, it is interesting to wonder how the fixtures of one side coming into this game could be so different from the fixtures of the opposition.