- The last three and a half years and the very remarkable statistic
- The allocation of referees in the Premier League has got out of hand
By Tony Attwood
Four referees have so far overseen 15 or 16 Premier League matches this season and one of them is Anthony Taylor who is in charge of tonight’s game.
| Referee | Games | Fouls Per game | Fouls Per Tackle | Pen pg | Yel pg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Oliver | 16 | 22.25 | 0.62 | 0.06 | 2.56 |
| Anthony Taylor | 16 | 19.81 | 0.56 | 0.25 | 3.81 |
| Chris Kavanagh | 16 | 22.75 | 0.66 | 0.31 | 3.88 |
| Peter Bankes | 15 | 22.60 | 0.68 | 0.33 | 4.27 |
| Variation | 11% | 21% | 550% | 167% |
Notes
Anthony Taylor, tonight’s referee, sees fewer fouls than his fellow referees who are used at the same level as him. And he sees 21% fewer tackles as fouls. Arsenal are currently putting in three more tackles per match than Liverpool and so should get some marginal benefit here.
This ref is not the most active giver of penalties, but he does give out four times as many penalties as Michael Oliver, which is just plain ludicrous. This is not to say Taylor or the other referees are wrong, but rather once more points out that what sort of game we see depends as much on the referee as on the players.
Likeiwse Taylor is in line with two of the referees we highlight here in regards to yellows, but hands out 49% mjore yellows than Oliver.
So we ask, what sort of results dooes our referees see? After all, if they are all refereeing in the same way, without bias, and getting an equal range of games, then after 15 or so games the percentages of home wins, away wins and draws should be similar – although of course not identical.
That’s what it should be, but this is PGMO so not a chance of that…
| Referee | Games | HomeWin% | AwayWin% | Draw% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Oliver | 16 | 37.5 | 43.8 | 18.8 |
| Anthony Taylor | 16 | 50.0 | 31.3 | 18.8 |
| Chris Kavanagh | 16 | 50.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Peter Bankes | 15 | 80.0 | 13.3 | 6.7 |
| Variance | 213% | 329% | 108% |
Given this arrangement of results, Arsenal would have over twice as much chance of winning this match under Peter Bankes, than we have under Michael Oliver. Indeed, Oliver leaves Arsenal with the worst chance of a home win among the top refs which could be why we have him. And of course, moving on from that, Liverpool have the best chance of an away win.
Again, it should not be like this. That is not to say that all the clubs should be equal, but the variance is ludicrously large. Arsenal would have an 80% chance of winning under Bankes but only a 37.5% chance of winning under Oliver, based on their previous matches!!!
Once more, this is ludicrous. Referees should not be given matches such that one referee endlessly sees home wins and another sees almost half his games as away wins. That should not happen, either because of a bias in the matches they are given to referee or because of their own bias in handling the game and the influence of the home crowd. (Our analysis of results during the pandemic, when no crowds were present, gave us evidence of crowd influence on referees.)
Now, of course, we can welcome the fact that Taylor does see half of the games he referees as home wins, but this itself is nowhere near the average for home wins across the league. And we hardly need any more data to point out what is wrong, since Banks sees 80% home wins and Oliver 37.5% home wins.
When we come to the home and away history of the clubs this season, however, we do see a real advantage for Arsenal, with Arsenal having done twice as well at home as Liverpool have achieved away, in terms of results. And although this is not translated into twice as many goals scored by Arsenal as by Liverpool, when we include the goals against it gives a goal difference massively in Arsenal’s favour.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal home | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 5 | 21 | 28 |
| 8 | Liverpool away | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 14 |
Yet to counter this, something happened to Liverpool after the game against PSV near the end of November, for since then they have won five, drawn four and had no defeats. That might feel formidable, until we notice that across the same range of nine games, Arsenal have had eight wins and one defeat.
Although overall, it is those draws that drag Liverpool’s ratio down. Here is the last six games table from the top down….
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 15 |
| 2 | Brentford | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 14 |
| 3 | Fulham | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 14 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Man City | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 12 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 12 |
More anon….
