- The strange case of the West Ham games against Arsenal
- The Great Mistake which the others made but Arsenal avoided
By Tony Attwood
The officials for Arsenal’s game againsts West Ham United
- Referee: Christopher Kavanagh
- Assistant Referees: Dan Cook & Ian Hussin
- Fourth Official: James Bell
- VAR: Darren England
- Assistant VAR: Akil Howso
Chris Kavanagh, the referee for Arsenal’s game against West Ham at the taxpayer’s stadium, has overseen 27 games this season – only one referee has overseen more.
And only one referee among these ten, who oversee the most games in the Premier League, sees more tackles as fouls. However, most of the referees in this elite group who oversee the most games give out more yellow cards per game. Kavanagh averages 3.81 yellow cards per game. The ref most prone to wave all the yellows gives, on average, around one more yellow per game. Now that doesn’t sound much, but we must remember this is in each and every game. And that is what makes all the difference.
Now, one card here or there doesn’t sound much, but that means that the range of yellow cards per referee varies by something like 50 cards from one referee to the next during the course of the season. And since PGMO insists on some referees overseeing games involving the same team six or more times in a season, some clubs are going to be hit by constant yellow cards, while others are going to get away with fouls after foul aftr foul.
Still Attwell gives out anund 23% more yellow cards per game than Kavanagh so we should be grateful for small mercies.
As ever, if each team was only overseen twice at most by each referee then we could say it all evens out in the end, but of course, clubs like Arsenal can get the same referee over and over and over. And we know what that means.
In terms of results, Pawson is unusual – he sees just about the same number of home wins as he sees away wins, and as there are draws in his games. But a referee like Kavanagh is heavily drawn toward supporting the home side, and over 48% of his games this season have ended up as home wins. In fact, only one of the regularly used referees sees more home wins, and that is Peter Banks. One has to wonder what on earth he is seeing when we notice that OVER TWO THIRDS of his games end as home wins.
Kavanagh has around a quarter of his games as away wins or draws, and once again we have to ask, how can it possibly be that one referee, seeing over 20 Premier League games in a season, sees 68.2% of them as home wins, while another sees 40.7% as away wins and another sees 36.4% as draws?
All Arsenal need to know is that Kavanagh favours home wins around twice as much as he oversees away wins or draws in his matches. This really is crazy, but it is also PGMOL. If we take the figures of this referee through this season in the Premier League, we can see that Arsenal are effectively starting on the back foot. But I am sure Arteta and co study the referee issues as much as we do, so at least the players will be ready. The clubs that screw up are those that don’t have someone looking at referee statistics and who assume the referee will have no bias of the type revealed by their statistics.
In terms of results, under 30% of Kavanagh’s games come out as away wins. While for referees such as Gillett and Harrington, the percentage of away wins is 50% so Arsenal are clearly starting at a major disadvantage in this game and will have to beat the referee first and then the opposition.
While of course we don’t expect every referee to come out with one third of their games being home wins, one third away wins and one third draws, there really should be a smaller difference between refereeing results across a season than we actually see.
What started this enquiry was, of course, the dramatic change of results that we saw during the pandemic when the games were played without crowds and instead of seeing a dominance of home wins, we saw a dominance of away wins. The only clear explanation for this, after working through all the statistics, was that referees were, prior to the pandemic (and indeed since the pandemic) influenced by the crowds. It should not be, of course but that is how it is, which is what makes the support so important.
you have omitted to mention that the home team itself should be buoyed by their supporters. their performances should therefore improve at home.
That is true Chris – but with the empahsis on “should”. What seems to me to have happened in recent years is that supporters of a number of PL teams have become much quicker to criticise their team than in the past.
I have mentioned previously that after three second placed finishes we saw demands for Arteta to be sacked and that would have been a move in keeping with the general approach to PL football in recent years as big money newcomers take over clubs, find they go down the table, replace the manager and still find that the club can’t rise up.
Suddenly they realise the horrible truth: theis is no magic wand.
Chris,
While it’s probably true that the home crowd helps performance why is it that so many PGMOL refs oversee more away wins than home, or more away wins/draws? Also, the difference among referees is just too great. How does this affect the odds makers? Surely a bet on the away team with Kavanaugh in charge is a risky one indeed. If you’re at the stadium watching your team with John Brooks in charge, relax.
There’s a 72% chance you’ll enjoy a win. Jared Gillett? It’s only 50/50. If your team is away and Peter Bankes is the ref you only have an 18% chance of your team succeeding. This is all beyond what one would think of as normal home/away bias. I get my stats from whoscored.com if you like to check for yourself.
We get one VAR call this season. A BIG ONE!
At long last – a key PGMOL intervention (albeit by VAR) that goes in Arsenal’s favour when we needed it most! Dare I say it, a decision that ‘champions’ get…?
Leo and David to the rescue together with VAR (for once)…. I think we all aged 10 years today….
Just checking if I can post.
Anyone can post unless the post is abusive or totally negative about Arsenal. The reason for the latter is that there are hundreds of websites that carry negative views about Arsenal, and this site tries to balance that with generally positive thought.
I’m still not over the art piece Odegaard did, telephone-cabin style in the WHAM box before his assist.
We saw his genius and technical prowess. To the millisecond.
Looking at it a few times, and at the crowded situation, one can only imagine the countless hours they’ve trained that kind of a situation to be able to keep control of the ball AND look up to see what’s coming as well as the unspoken understanding between the players.
His reaction afterwards was priceless.
Imagine if he had not been hurt… the season would have unfolded way differently.
Chris
“Imagine if he had not been hurt… the season would have unfolded way differently.”
Spot on. There have been grumblings regarding Odegaards form throughout the season, not only outside the club, but often within. And yes, his form hasn’t been as good as previous seasons, but as you suggest, the guy has been caring injuries almost the entire season. He’s just never been able to get into his usual rhythm.
But despite that, to my eyes he is still the man to unlock these stubborn low blocks. He is the man with a key.
Regarding yesterdays result, and more specifically there disallowed goal:
Most people with 2 eyes could see it was a foul. No ifs. No buts. But still there is outrage. By why?
Apparently because we have been getting away with doing that exact same thing at corners all year. That is absolute crap.
Never once have we put an arm across the keeper, held his arm and pulled his shirt. Most of the time in fact we don’t actually stand on the keeper. Our modus operandi is to create panic. 4 or five players either running from the far to the near post with one or two trying to pop up unmarked at the back Or front post. Or more recently taking a short corner.
Yes we use blockers but no more or less than every other team. Indeed in yesterdays incident we do do some holding at defencive corners. But again no more or less than others, or indeed is done to us.
Most of this holding, both for and aginst us, is let go by the officials. Frustrating when it’s on us. But a relief the other way. But by and large referees are CONSISTENTLY allowing the holding to go on.
But not according to the media and bloggers. Apparently we are the only ones who do it, and we’ve been getting away with it at EVERY set piece, because apparently the referees favour Arsenal.
No mention of what Manc115 got away with against Brentford of course.
Again I must mention Terry Flewers at The Football Terrace. A beacon of sanity in the darkness. I don’t agree with everything he says but I believe it all comes from an UNBIASED perspective.
He calls out the media bias against us (and others) at every turn with countless examples of their hypocrisy. Always worth a listen.
Completely agree Nitram. The only time an Arsenal player was holding the arm of a keeper was Ben White at Leicester. The ball came to Trossard who curled in a beautiful goal…. that was ruled out after VAR intervened (correctly) as they noticed it was White who held the arm of the Leicester keeper who then could only half clear the ball. In fact this was only one arm that was held but that is the only thing you cannot do at all. No Raya suffered two fouls: his arms were held and Tobido tried to swap his shirt at the same time.
The only reason for the outrage is that they hate us and they do so because we have shown that you can build a team within the financial laws, but it takes time.
Oh and they still hate us for the invincibles of course…. LOL I just love the tears from the idiots also called pundits (well most of them – some sane voices but only a few amongst the former United, Liverpool and Chelsea pundits)