So what is wrong with the PL Refs: Case study Atkinson

By Walter Broeckx

After having finished the articles in which we tried to find out under whom the teams did better than usual (or to see under which ref they have a bad to terrible win record) we now are going to have another look at those numbers but looking at it from the point of view of the ref and then show you how a ref performs with all the teams.

I had this planned when I started the series and I think looking at a few questions from people it could make things a bit easier for people who want to keep an eye on how a ref is doing for one team vis a vis another team.

People asking me how do Arsenal and WBA do under Webb? Well up to now you had to go to the Arsenal article and then to the WBA article. But now we will give you a nice and handy tool where you can see how each ref does with all the teams in the PL.

Let me give you an example of this. In general when we get Martin Atkinson Arsenal doesn’t have to fear him a lot.  Let us say that if we were to play Sunderland and Atkinson is in charge, we can expect him to do a good job. I’m not saying he will help us to a win but you can be sure that he will do a professional job. And after all that is all we want from a ref.

But us Untolders know that when we have Atkinson in a game against Chelsea that we are more or less doomed. Chelsea are highly over achieving whenever Atkinson is around. And it is finding out that combination that is teaching us a lot of the possible influence a ref can have on the outcome of a game.

So how should we use the table we are going to present to you? We give you the total numbers of games of each team and the result they had in numbers and in percentage terms. And then we have the result of the mentioned team under the ref.

And then I added a last column: “Achieving”. And that is where I tell how the team is doing under said ref. Average means that the results in general and the results under this ref are very much in line with what can be expected. In this table Arsenal is such a team.

When you see the word “over” this means that the team is over achieving when the refs is in charge. A good example of such a team that has a remarkably better score when the ref is around is Chelsea.  And when you see the word “Under” this means that this team is underachieving when this ref is around. An example of this might be Everton or Liverpool.

Now the art of this is trying to find interesting combinations. Let me try to give you an example. A few weeks ago ref Atkinson did Southampton – Manchester City. Now if you look at the result of Manchester City you see that they are overachieving under Atkinson in general by some 15%. So no big problems ahead for them at first sight. But then we have to look at the numbers of Southampton.  And then we see that for some unknown reason Southampton who only have a win percentage of 29% in general win 57% of their games when Atkinson is in charge. So they are overachieving by some 28%.  Almost the double win percentage than general!

So with those numbers Southampton beating Manchester City with 3-1 looks less surprising than it first was.

With this table in hand any win from Chelsea against any other team looks “normal”. Which it isn’t in fact. Because we all have seen this season how Atkinson tilted the result in favour if Chelsea by not calling obvious fouls against Chelsea and letting them score from this.  Or giving them penalties for players who dived.

Just have a look at the full table and from now on you can see before any game what could be the expected outcome of a game.  Just have a look at the table.

	Total	won	draw	lost	won	draw	lost	Achieving
Arsenal	797	426	212	159	53,45%	26,60%	19,95%
Atkinson	28	14	7	7	50,00%	25,00%	25,00%	Average
Aston Villa	797	287	249	261	36,01%	31,24%	32,75%
Atkinson	26	10	6	10	38,46%	23,08%	38,46%	Average
Chelsea	797	414	206	177	51,94%	25,85%	22,21%
Atkinson	24	18	4	2	75,00%	16,67%	8,33%	Over
Everton	797	282	230	285	35,38%	28,86%	35,76%
Atkinson	22	6	4	12	27,27%	18,18%	54,55%	Under
Fulham	443	137	128	178	30,93%	28,89%	40,18%
Atkinson	22	11	3	8	50,00%	13,64%	36,36%	Over
Liverpool	797	389	203	205	48,81%	25,47%	25,72%
Atkinson	32	13	9	10	40,63%	28,13%	31,25%	Under
Man City	607	226	159	222	37,23%	26,19%	36,57%
Atkinson	23	12	3	8	52,17%	13,04%	34,78%	Over
MU	797	520	165	112	65,24%	20,70%	14,05%
Atkinson	22	15	2	5	68,18%	9,09%	22,73%	Average
Newcastle	717	284	192	241	39,61%	26,78%	33,61%
Atkinson	23	8	5	10	34,78%	21,74%	43,48%	Average
Norwich	227	68	72	87	29,96%	31,72%	38,33%
Atkinson	7	4	0	3	57,14%	0,00%	42,86%	Over
QPR	227	71	57	99	31,28%	25,11%	43,61%
Atkinson	13	3	2	8	23,08%	15,38%	61,54%	Under
Reading	101	31	21	49	30,69%	20,79%	48,51%
Atkinson	8	1	3	4	12,50%	37,50%	50,00%	Under
Southampton	531	155	146	230	29,19%	27,50%	43,31%
Atkinson	7	4	0	3	57,14%	0,00%	42,86%	Over
Stoke	177	53	54	70	29,94%	30,51%	39,55%
Atkinson	21	7	1	13	33,33%	4,76%	61,90%	Average
Sunderland	443	119	112	212	26,86%	25,28%	47,86%
Atkinson	26	6	10	10	23,08%	38,46%	38,46%	Average
Swansea	63	20	21	22	31,75%	33,33%	34,92%
Atkinson	6	2	2	2	33,33%	33,33%	33,33%	Average
Tottenham	797	307	210	280	38,52%	26,35%	35,13%
Atkinson	22	10	5	7	45,45%	22,73%	31,82%	Over
WBA	253	62	64	127	24,51%	25,30%	50,20%
Atkinson	16	6	2	8	37,50%	12,50%	50,00%	Over
West Ham	641	210	164	267	32,76%	25,59%	41,65%
Atkinson	24	10	4	10	41,67%	16,67%	41,67%	Over
Wigan	291	81	73	137	27,84%	25,09%	47,08%
Atkinson	21	7	4	10	33,33%	19,05%	47,62%	Average

Now of course this is not written in stone. And accidents might happen. The favourite team having an off day, the ref having a bit of bad luck with the outcome of some of his biased decisions can change a game.

Just imagine, to stay with the latest Chelsea-Arsenal game that he didn’t give the foul on Coquelin as he did, but Chelsea failing to capitalise from his coloured decision. Or he could have done the right thing and give the foul. Nobody in the Chelsea camp could and would have complained. And just imagine him giving the penalty but Chelsea missing the penalty. Those things can happen and then even when you did all you could to help them it might happen that you failed.

A table like this might be a handy instrument if you want to make a few bets. You could use it to win more information about the possible effects of the refs on the games. But always remember the outcome of the games still remains a bit uncertain as I just explained. But if you look you will find some strange things and it might be interesting to put a bet against the odds at times. Don’t blame me if it doesn’t happen of course. Buy me a drink next time I come to the Emirates when you have won a few pounds using this table.  Or the other tables we will show you in the next weeks.

Arsenal receive amazing boost in their quest for a European place

The books…

• Woolwich Arsenal: The club that changed football – Arsenal’s early years
• Making the Arsenal – how the modern Arsenal was born in 1910
• The Crowd at Woolwich Arsenal FC: crowd behaviour at the early matches
• Royal Arsenal: from the Common to the Manor.  Coming next.

The sites from the same team…

• Referee Decisions – just what are the refs up to this season?
• The Arsenal History Blog from the AISA Arsenal History Society