PL refs’ case studies: Friend

by Walter Broeckx

Next in our attempt to bring some statistic line in the referee world we will have a closer look at referee  Friend and how the teams are doing in general and when he is around.

First let me explain in short the average, under and over thing you see in the last row.

When you see “average” it means that the results of the team in general are not that far away with the results when the ref is in charge. It is in fact what one should hope to see most.

When we see “over” it means that the team in question is doing much better and in some cases much much better than they usual do.

And when you see “under” it means that the team is doing bad compared to their usual win %.

Is ref Friend a friend for your team or not? You can see it here.

	Total	won	draw	lost	won	draw	lost	Achieving
Arsenal	797	426	212	159	53,45%	26,60%	19,95%
Friend	5	3	2	0	60,00%	40,00%	0,00%	Average
Aston Villa	797	287	249	261	36,01%	31,24%	32,75%
Friend	9	3	3	3	33,33%	33,33%	33,33%	Average
Chelsea	797	414	206	177	51,94%	25,85%	22,21%
Friend	8	2	3	3	25,00%	37,50%	37,50%	Under
Everton	797	282	230	285	35,38%	28,86%	35,76%
Friend	10	7	2	1	70,00%	20,00%	10,00%	Over
Fulham	443	137	128	178	30,93%	28,89%	40,18%
Friend	10	2	2	6	20,00%	20,00%	60,00%	Under
Liverpool	797	389	203	205	48,81%	25,47%	25,72%
Friend	10	6	2	2	60,00%	20,00%	20,00%	Over
Man City	607	226	159	222	37,23%	26,19%	36,57%
Friend	8	4	2	2	50,00%	25,00%	25,00%	Over
MU	797	520	165	112	65,24%	20,70%	14,05%
Friend	3	3	0	0	100,00%	0,00%	0,00%	Over
Newcastle	717	284	192	241	39,61%	26,78%	33,61%
Friend	6	6	0	0	100,00%	0,00%	0,00%	Over
Norwich	227	68	72	87	29,96%	31,72%	38,33%
Friend	8	1	5	2	12,50%	62,50%	25,00%	Under
QPR	227	71	57	99	31,28%	25,11%	43,61%
Friend	12	5	4	3	41,67%	33,33%	25,00%	Over
Reading	101	31	21	49	30,69%	20,79%	48,51%
Friend	13	8	1	4	61,54%	7,69%	30,77%	Over
Southampton	531	155	146	230	29,19%	27,50%	43,31%
Friend	6	0	3	3	0,00%	50,00%	50,00%	Under
Stoke	177	53	54	70	29,94%	30,51%	39,55%
Friend	9	2	3	4	22,22%	33,33%	44,44%	Average
Sunderland	443	119	112	212	26,86%	25,28%	47,86%
Friend	14	4	3	7	28,57%	21,43%	50,00%	Average
Swansea	63	20	21	22	31,75%	33,33%	34,92%
Friend	8	0	4	4	0,00%	50,00%	50,00%	Under
Tottenham	797	307	210	280	38,52%	26,35%	35,13%
Friend	7	4	1	2	57,14%	14,29%	28,57%	Over
WBA	253	62	64	127	24,51%	25,30%	50,20%
Friend	11	2	4	5	18,18%	36,36%	45,45%	Average
West Ham	641	210	164	267	32,76%	25,59%	41,65%
Friend	5	4	1	0	80,00%	20,00%	0,00%	Over
Wigan	291	81	73	137	27,84%	25,09%	47,08%
Friend	12	4	4	4	33,33%	33,33%	33,33%	Average

As far as we can see Friend is a ref who can do all the teams in the PL. But as he is relatively new to the PL we have a lot of low data numbers on him. So we have to take some results with a pinch of salt. And in some cases with a big bag of salt.  But well we can only work with the numbers we have of course.

Let us start with the teams who perform close to their average standard in the PL.  The teams we can place in this category are Arsenal, Aston Villa, Stoke, Sunderland, WBA and Wigan.  That is 6 teams of the 20 in the PL.  The numbers of Arsenal are only based on 5 games so far. But it is worth nothing that we haven’t lost a game when Friend was in charge.

Let us move on to the teams who seem to over perform when Friend is around. One could say the friends of Friend.  Everton and Liverpool are big over achievers when he is around. And so are both teams from Manchester. The numbers for Manchester United are even more stunning with a 100% win record but that is only based on 3 games so far. So remember to keep the salt in the neighbourhood.  Another team doing extremely well under Friend is Newcastle. They also have a 100% win record over the 6 games he did.

QPR and Reading are also over achievers when Friend is around. But they didn’t see Friend enough to rescue them this season.  And also Tottenham and West Ham are very much over achievers when Friend does their games.  That is in total 9 teams who do better than can be expected compared to their average results.

So who are the teams who are paying the bill? Chelsea and Fulham are very much under achieving when Friend is around. He doesn’t like that part of London apparently. Norwich and Southampton are also doing not that good when this ref is in charge. But the worst team of them all is Swansea. They seem to have a Dean-ref in Friend.  They couldn’t win one game in the 8 games he has been in charge of Swansea. And that surely does look strange.

I think this table is a table where you could find strange results if you want to make a bet on to something.  Just imagine a game Swansea- Newcastle with Friend in charge. Most people would think of a Swansea win as the most natural outcome. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if it would be Newcastle that would win it.

So some really strange outcomes in this table. But as he is rather young and for some teams hasn’t done a lot of games it all can change a bit in the next years of course. Hell, who knows even MU and Newcastle might lose a game when Friend is around.

Referee Analysis 2013