We can we learn after the first 14 games? A comparison with past years.

18 Replies to “We can we learn after the first 14 games? A comparison with past years.”

  1. Excellent work, Tony!

    (Shhhhhhh, Tony, there were two teams with more than 33 goals. OK, you’re right, it’s just one team but they did it twice – Manchester City scored 48 (including 5 at WHL and 6 at Old Trafford) in 2011-12 and 40 in 2013-14. Both times they won the league.)

  2. The average scoring over the 6 years is 163 2/3. The variance (correct for finite sample size) is 1343.2, which gives a standard deviation of 36.6 (and change). The largest deviation (188) is only 24 1/3 from the average, which is less than one standard deviation. It is highly unlikely that any of these numbers is statistically unique.

    The best estimate we have for the number of goals scored in that interval is our mean (163 2/3). We are reasonably sure that the true rate is within 14.96 times a small multiplier (near 1) of this sample mean (if I remembered std error calculation properly).

    Oh, it appears Dan Crowley is at a trial on a new loan in Holland.

  3. Great article posting. But let whatever statistical calculations there might be out there this time which will support Arsenal efforts in this season’s PL campaign to lift the title fail to materialize and be thrown into the trash bin. For such statistics are of no any use to Arsenal’s quest to capture the title this season.

    Yes, statistics are there to show the trend of how a certain occurrence of event has been moving so as to enabled a forecasted projection be made for the next occurrence of event in line.

    In this wise, as statistical calculation sometimes swerved away from a forecasted course of regular line of calculations and thus failed to conform to the order in trend, so too it’ll be in the case of Arsenal this season. For, we’ve not won the PL title for the past 12 season PL campaigns. And therefore, it’s about time this statistical calculations in trend fail this season for Arsenal’s glory sake. Just as it failed last season in the case of Leicester City.

  4. Sorry for my typo error of omitting the word ‘not’ in my just last comment posting. I ment to type ‘will not support Arsenal efforts in this season’s PL campaign…..

  5. The 2 Voyager satellites are a long way from Earth. To point a radio receiver in their direction and look at the signal received, you would be hard pressed to see that there is anything there that wasn’t random.

    An untrained person, “knowing” that the signal came from a man made object, could probably find a JPEG, TIFF, GIF or some other image in a long enough stream of the data. And maybe they could claim that the image was of an alien. As near as I can tell, neither of those satellites send those kinds of images.

    And yet, NASA continues to get data from both Voyager satellites. NASA doesn’t have to consider all possible meanings of what it is receiving, it only has to consider what is possible for those satellites to send. Which is how it can continue to receive data from them.

    Nobody has a model for how a football season will play out. Or rather, nobody has THE model. Hence, we have to treat all of the data we receive as if there is no applicable model.

    All I did, was show in one way (and not being very rigorous), that it is unlikely that there is a statistically significant trend present. Maybe if you try a different method and use more rigor, you can show that there is a trend?

    A large part of football results is just “luck”. Statistical noise by another name. In 2015/16, ManC finished above ManU because of detail beyond points acquired (points were the same, 66). There is no statistical argument to show that the performance of ManC over the season was “better” than ManU produced. Mankind (in the guise of The Premier League and The FA) decided that they needed means to break “ties”, and so the arbitrary rule they used set ManC above ManU.

    If it was possible to replay the universe, except that instead of of Rooney eating Wheatabix for breakfast on the first day of the season instead of Cherios; we might find that the fine detail of how things played out would result in ManU being above ManC.

    But what I have been trying to point out with statistics, is that in such a scenario, it is entirely possible that the spuds would have finished above Arsenal. We are replaying the universe except changing what seems like a completely insignificant detail. But, it is also possible in such a replay, that Arsenal finished first (above Leicester).

    The league only rewards what happens at a particular instant, with a particular set of detail. The league is not set up to find out which is best, only to find out which team is approximately best. And so, in 2015/16 it rewarded Leicester with the title of EPL Champion.

    If you need more thoughts on where I am coming from, you could read about the various “ensembles” that are used in Statistical Mechanics.

  6. @Gord,. Well said.

    It is safe to say “ARSENAL is by far (lightyears) the greatest team the world has ever seen”

  7. No doubt D Arsenal is d best team on earth! My only worry is d apparent lack of consistency wich I believe is in d domain of d players; in dis wise, I tink d players shuld lift demselves up, talk more among denselves, encourage eachoda more, bond more together nd take unanimous decisions on how to handle opponents,by dis I meaqn play for eachoda nd as a unit; I hve no doubt dat wit d present trend if maintained nd focused dis season is. Arsenal’s season everytin is pointing to it for those wit decerning minds! Shalom!!!

  8. Interestingly, the team that had scored the most goals after 14 games won the league, irrespective of position, except Leicester who were -1
    Liverpool have scored the most so far…… gulp ……
    But it would suggest a congested title race this year

  9. This makes very interesting reading.Great job Tony, Gord.

    I love stats…it educates the articulate and encourages the intelligent to go the extra mile whenever he/she finds self in the wrong side of it.

    I think dear Gunners should take a deeper look at this present team. There are many positives from not just 14 league matches so far but all the 23 matches of the season bar the EFL Cup match against Southampton. Let me save my observations till my post coming shortly.

  10. @ Gord – 08/12/2016 at 11:54 pm – I really couldn’t envisage myself living in a world (statistical or otherwise !) where there is no St. Totteringham’s Day ! What kind of a balance in the force is that ?
    Such a scenario is even too scary to contemplate ! Admittedly they did come close last season , but then the natural and inevitable balance was rightly restored , when it truly mattered. Somethings are pre-ordained !

    Maybe when the Spuds do finally get to win the EPL , the Arsenal would probably be playing in a league in a galaxy far , far away ?

  11. Here is a very good example of the inevitably of the universe and the order of things .

    A young college girl at a bus stop spotted a handsome man and without hesitation went up to him and said, “You look cute.. I like you.”

    The man out of shock simply placed his hand on her shoulder and said, “My dear, this love and infatuation are all nothing. You are too young to be behaving like this. Please go home and study hard so that you can have a good career and successful life.”..

    He then placed a piece of paper on her hand and said, “I have written some words of wisdom for you. Read them before you go to sleep.”
    And then he walked away.

    The girl went back to her hostel in shame and before she slept she opened up the paper and read thus: “Are you blind?? My wife was standing right behind me. Any way, this is my number. Call me anytime. ………..
    By the way, I like you too!”

    See ? Men will always be men ! You can bet on it !

  12. Too much alcohol , sexy babes and extra marital affairs are a man’s worst enemies . But remember ,…….
    a man who runs away from his enemies IS a coward !

  13. Tony what happened in the 2012/13 season. Did Arsenal not finish in the top 4?. Anyway it did not take away the quality of the write up.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *