Crystal Palace v Arsenal; what the stats of this season predict for the result

By Bulldog Drummond

In the last eight games (all in the League) Palace have pulled themselves together under Roy Hodgson…

Date Game Res Score Competition
18 Nov 2017 Crystal Palace v Everton D 2-2 Premier League
25 Nov 2017 Crystal Palace v Stoke City W 2-1 Premier League
28 Nov 2017 Brighton and Hove  v Crystal Palace D 0-0 Premier League
02 Dec 2017 West Bromwich v Crystal Palace D 0-0 Premier League
09 Dec 2017 Crystal Palace v AFC Bournemouth D 2-2 Premier League
12 Dec 2017 Crystal Palace v Watford W 2-1 Premier League
16 Dec 2017 Leicester City v Crystal Palace W 0-3 Premier League
23 Dec 2017 Swansea City v Crystal Palace D 1-1 Premier League

That makes five draws, three wins and no defeats, which is not at all bad for a team that lost their first seven games in the league this season.

Arsenal’s last eight games have given us four wins, three draws and one defeat – that to Manchester United

Date Game Res Score Competition
29 Nov 2017 Arsenal v Huddersfield Town W 5-0 Premier League
02 Dec 2017 Arsenal v Manchester United L 1-3 Premier League
07 Dec 2017 Arsenal v FC BATE Borisov W 6-0 UEFA Europa League
10 Dec 2017 Southampton v Arsenal D 1-1 Premier League
13 Dec 2017 West Ham United v Arsenal D 0-0 Premier League
16 Dec 2017 Arsenal v Newcastle United W 1-0 Premier League
19 Dec 2017 Arsenal v West Ham United W 1-0 League Cup
22 Dec 2017 Arsenal v Liverpool D 3-3 Premier League

Both teams have four injuries at present, Arsenal having Monreal, Ramsey and Giroud out, with physioroom counting Santiz Cazorla as a player injured, although as I always point out, he’s not registered to play in the 25.  So three players out of the 25 are injured.  Palace have Sakho, Ward, Delaney and Wickbam with Ward possibly back after a groin strain for this game.

So the question is what sort of team do we need to put out against Palace away from home. What’s their record in that regard? Here’s the home form of Palace in the context of the league…

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Manchester City 10 9 1 0 36 7 29 28
2 Manchester United 10 8 1 1 24 5 19 25
3 Arsenal 10 8 1 1 25 10 15 25
4 Chelsea 10 7 1 2 16 7 9 22
5 Tottenham Hotspur 10 6 3 1 21 8 13 21
6 Liverpool 10 5 5 0 19 3 16 20
7 Everton 10 6 1 3 17 13 4 19
8 Burnley 10 5 2 3 7 6 1 17
9 Huddersfield Town 10 4 3 3 10 12 -2 15
10 Leicester City 10 4 2 4 13 14 -1 14
11 Brighton and Hove Albion 10 3 5 2 10 12 -2 14
12 Stoke City 10 4 2 4 13 19 -6 14
13 Southampton 11 3 4 4 13 15 -2 13
14 Crystal Palace 9 3 3 3 12 15 -3 12
15 Watford 10 3 3 4 13 21 -8 12
16 West Ham United 9 3 2 4 10 14 -4 11
17 Newcastle United 10 3 1 6 9 13 -4 10
18 AFC Bournemouth 10 2 3 5 12 16 -4 9
19 West Bromwich Albion 10 1 6 3 9 14 -5 9
20 Swansea City 10 2 2 6 6 15 -9 8
Despite the recent run of form Palace have only won one third of their home games, and with an absolute balance with drawn and lost games showing the same number.  They’ve scored 12 and let in 15 and that suggests that against an attack which could contain Alexis, Lacazette and Ozil, prompted by Wilshere our defence ought to be able to hold them and allow wing backs to go forward.

Looking the possible team news the first choice appears to be between Kolasinac or Maitland Niles – the former has the force with him, the latter has the pace.

It also seems possible that Shkodran Mustafi could play in central defence, leaving Kolasinac and Bellerin as wing backs free to maraud and push Palace back with Xhaka doing the extra defensive work.

Arsenal’s away form is of course not as good as we’d like it to be but still has picked up a little of late…

Pos Team Pld W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 10 10 0 0 25 5 20 30
2 Chelsea 10 6 2 2 18 7 11 20
3 Manchester United 10 5 3 2 19 11 8 18
4 Liverpool 10 5 3 2 27 20 7 18
5 Tottenham Hotspur 10 5 1 4 18 12 6 16
6 Burnley 10 4 4 2 11 11 0 16
7 Watford 10 4 1 5 16 14 2 13
8 Leicester City 10 3 4 3 17 16 1 13
9 Arsenal 9 2 3 4 9 13 -4 9
10 Newcastle United 10 2 2 6 10 17 -7 8
11 AFC Bournemouth 10 2 2 6 6 15 -9 8
12 Everton 10 1 5 4 7 17 -10 8
13 Huddersfield Town 10 2 2 6 8 20 -12 8
14 Brighton and Hove Albion 10 2 1 7 5 13 -8 7
15 West Ham United 11 1 4 6 12 24 -12 7
16 Southampton 9 1 3 5 7 15 -8 6
17 West Bromwich Albion 10 1 3 6 5 13 -8 6
18 Crystal Palace 10 1 3 6 4 14 -10 6
19 Stoke City 10 1 3 6 10 22 -12 6
20 Swansea City 10 1 2 7 5 16 -11 5

But still it is just two wins out of nine away from home.  One goal per away game is not what we would hope for from a team with all this attacking flair.

So our goals tally is 9-13 away while their’s is 12-15 at home, which doesn’t sound too promising either way.  Can we find anything to make this look more promising?

In our last five away games in the league we have got two wins, two draws and one defeat

Date Match Res Score Competition
22 Oct 2017 Everton v Arsenal W 2-5 Premier League
05 Nov 2017 Manchester City v Arsenal L 3-1 Premier League
26 Nov 2017 Burnley v Arsenal W 0-1 Premier League
10 Dec 2017 Southampton v Arsenal D 1-1 Premier League
13 Dec 2017 West Ham United v Arsenal D 0-0 Premier League

Eight goals for six against.  On this basis we are certainly tightening up away from home.  We just need to have the attacking strength which has twice seen us score five in a league game this season (Everton away and Huddersfield at home).  A spot of that with a solid defence could do us rather well.

More anon.

7 Replies to “Crystal Palace v Arsenal; what the stats of this season predict for the result”

  1. We’ll need at least three goals tonight in order to compensate for the ‘Oliver Factor’……

  2. Argh! Michael Oliver? Not him again. I mistakingly thought it was Bobby Madley that will referee in our PL match away to Man City when the match officials for the match were being revealed on this site. A PL match in which Michael Oliver and one of his assistants played a major role in seeing that Arsenal lose the match. Whereas, had the match been genuinely refereed by not a bias referee instead of been PGMO anti-Arsenal refereed, Arsenal would have gotten a result in the match.

    Once Bitten Twice Shy! With the nasty match referring experience the Gunners had from referee Michael Oliver and his assistant in their last Man City game, the Gunners should be shy of Mr Oliver and any of his assistants to not allow them this time around get away this night at Selhurst Park with doing anti-Arsenal referring in the game against them in their PL match against the Eagles of Crystal Palace. But negate his PGMO cynical antics against Arsenal in the match by blocking him and his assistants to play anti- PGMO referring Arsenal game that will see the Gunners downed not less that 3 Eagles in their flights during the match before M Oliver and his assistants know what is happening in the game. Thus, making them to become helpless in carrying out their master’s orders against Arsenal.

    In as much as Crystal Palace might have pulled themselves together in their last 8 games under the guidance of manager Roy Hodgson, Arsenal will undoubtedly this night at their Selhurst Park scatter them 3 times during the match on their 9th game in as many as in their will be last nine.

    Final Scores at full-time +: CPFC 0-3 AFC

  3. Oliver is towing the PGMO party line.

    However Shkodran pops up, some lax defending from Callum (still learning) is wiped out by that man!

    Alexis, what do you want it?! With news gathering that Ozil and Jack are due to sign and some sections reporting the board are quite sure we won’t be losing either star man in January or the Summer! I am more optimistic than ever and look forward to the return of CL football once more.

    With Theo omitted again from the starting line up, the interest F Everton, S’hampton, and even West Ham will surely be music to many ears. Meanwhile Mahrez is again linked with us, but seeing as he plays in the right, why is he being mooted a second the replacement of outnumbered mercurial talent from Chile? Fracker I could understand, but if there was a natural option, Ryad is mundane totalnfirst choice, let’s give the home office another headache.

    A brief news reel on Rugani and suddenly we are after Bennatia, yes we want a thirty year old CB.

    Additionally we are interested in all manner of players, but if we get in a CB and DM, whilst securing the services of Ozil and Alexis for the foreseeable future, I could only demarcate a RW as a bonus.

    Montreal is out with a delicate injury which could take a while to heal fully and cannot be rushed and it would seem sensible to consider rehab and a sale here also! Before he busts something else.

    We should use the Jan window as the summer will only seee players prices inflate with the World Cup!


  4. Jack: Assists in this game 2! He is so important we should play with a midfield 3 he and Aaron supported by a deep lying and we need one more. Mo I love you but the air is thin where we beee to go.

    Theo go to S’hampton if you like, but I’d go Everton son. 2 aged full backs out 2 in! Cohen make sure you are on it and fit by pre season!

    Butland! Rugani and Ryan! William C, two full back and replacement for Danny and Oliver in time!

  5. A game with no significant stoppages and 4 minutes added with four subs, each accumulating 30 seconds after more lax defending allows Palace a sniff!

    If we are being shot at, stop self savoutaging!

  6. That has been a banana skin fixture in tef by times, another packet counter attacking side! Well at least the second half of this season starts with a win! Next we must dismiss W Brom, to give Arsene a great gift for becoming the PL manager with the most fixtures under his belt.

    Also starting the year in fine fashion and going off to party the night away with a day or rest available on the 1st will be a must.

    We need to reinforce and let some deadwood depart. Mo is off to World Cup and so it may be worth the wait for that sale. But Id risk offloading Danny of China is fit and looking sharp and half committed.

    We need the spaces and we need more quality. Nelson right wing understudy, Iwobi left. We can buy a right winger that way and a striker before we even have to sell Oliver.

    I’m gonna start the search for a RB and LB properly. I still like Meter and Pulusic.

    Enthusiasm and quality, some calm as well.

    Alexis was marginally offside in first goal, not affecting the play but Sky ask it anyway!

    Granit was hauled off, after a knock according to the same source and… I just cba quoting these morons from different comedy outlets anymore!

    3 points bagged, 6 points separate 2nd to 6th whilst City will priorities the CL now they have that cushion, they will also prioritise the cups. Buy CL is something else and once teams smell blood in the league they come, 18 teams with a gripe!

    The saga at Newcastle drags on meanwhileas the protracted sale goes on whilst accounts from Nov and payments from Dec are scrutinised.

    On the bright side, looking at the next few fixtures for the other 4 cut adrift from City, I see that if we can perform in the next fixture and get the win we deserved at the bridge. We could well be 2nf by the time we face Chelsea in the league cup!

    Now that is something to focus on.

    Liverpool face some tricky fixtures, as do united, whilst Chelsea face us on our patch after a test against Stoke who are rarely pushovers. Whilst Spurs will be desperate to build on the momentum largely brought by Kane and his rightly praised (by Wenger) scoring feats.

    But the rumblings behind, Courtois, William, Hazard, Luiz and if be fairly surprised if at least 50% of those names cease to be listed in the 25man squad of theirs by Sept 2 2018, if not sooner.

    Courinho is sounding lit like the done deal for his former team mate and to the same club. They will want Lallana back asap. £75m artificial club value inflation much, but they are progressing at light years and have largely unfashionable players, they gonna need too four and I have Liverpool and Chelsea not making the grade.

    United are looking to liquidate assets and Maruane, Mikhi and Mata look available, Herrera also and possibly Blind and Shaw. with Jose looking to throw more money at his problems.

    There is something too good tonne true about City and I’m quite sure it’s PGMO assistance combined with no losses, I think both may be a little less likely quite soon.

    Today the three points were what mattered and the things got bagged, if Mesut rescuing a win and a draw was needed, a match winning brace from Alexis was right behind in the sweep stakes top prizes.

    Jack to transition behind Ozil was needed, he respects them and they will know to respect him. That’s a top class four, now a fifth.

    Let’s stick with scoring one more first of all, but Jeez a DM would make it all better.

    Watching them try and build from the back was horrifying and the two up top just loitering in the gaps.

    We will be demolished in latter EL stages like that! Europe is flair players and compact passing, Dortmund, Athletico pretty much epitomise that!

    I said it before the 10-2 Bayern aggregate and I’m saying it again.

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