Southampton v Arsenal: the analysis and the prediction

by Bulldog Drummond

Here are the details of Southampton’s home game results as revealed in the Home League Table

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
15 Fulham 7 2 2 3 10 16 -6 8
16 Burnley 8 2 1 5 9 15 -6 7
17 Newcastle United 9 2 0 7 7 15 -8 6
18 Southampton 7 0 5 2 6 10 -4 5
19 Crystal Palace 7 1 2 4 4 8 -4 5
20 Huddersfield Town 8 1 2 5 3 10 -7 5

It is quite remarkable: won nil, drawn five lost two.  They are scoring on average less than one goal a game but only conceding 1.4 goals a game.

And Arsenal’s away table

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 10 8 0 2 19 10 9 24
2 Liverpool 9 7 2 0 19 5 14 23
3 Manchester City 8 5 2 1 15 4 11 17
4 Arsenal 7 4 2 1 18 12 6 14
5 Chelsea 7 4 1 2 14 6 8 13

Very obviously Arsenal’s away form is better than Southampton’s home form.  We’ve won four, drawn two and lost one.  Our goals tally shows an average of 2.6 goals a game away from home and 1.7 goals scored against Arsenal away from home.

This suggests that Southampton might sneak a goal, but that we should come out easy winners in the end, probably by continuing the run of goals in the second half.

Incidentally you will notice that Tottenham remain top of the away table, particularly through having play more games than other sides – indeed three more than Arsenal and Chelsea – away from home.

Obviously this number has to even out in the end for Tottenham are now uniquely over half way through their away programme.  If this trend continues then as Tottenham start to catch up on their home games they may well start to slip in the league given that their home form is weaker.

Of course much depends on whether Tottenham really does slip up when they finally get to New WHL (and of course whether the electrics work when they get there) but if the normal trend of difficulty at home on moving to a new stadium is seen, it could be that the tables will change considerably before the end of the season.

We looked at Arsenal’s 22 game unbeaten run in the last post, so time to look at Southampton’s record this season, away from home in Premier League games

Date Match Res Score
17 Sep Southampton v Brighton and Hove D 2-2
07 Oct Southampton v Chelsea L 0-3
27 Oct Southampton v Newcastle United D 0-0
10 Nov Southampton v Watford D 1-1
01 Dec Southampton v Manchester United D 2-2

Southampton’s last win in the league was away on 1 September this year when they beat Palace, so it has been a while.  Their last two league games have been away, losing 3-1 to Tottenham and 1-0 to Cardiff.

Their last five games at home show four draws and a defeat to Chelsea, with the goals tally being five goals scored and eight conceded.

This compares with Arsenal’s last five away games in the league…

15 Sep Newcastle U v Arsenal W 1-2
07 Oct Fulham v Arsenal W 1-5
28 Oct Crystal Palace v Arsenal D 2-2
25 Nov Bournemouth v Arsenal W 1-2
05 Dec Manchester United v Arsenal D 2-2

Three wins and two draws, with 13 goals scored and seven conceded.

So looking at it all ways it looks like an Arsenal win, but with Southampton getting a goal.  However a word of caution is needed since Wolverhampton at home also looked like an easy win.  If we have a team that decides to adopt the Huddersfield re-working of the Bolton tactics then we might well find that some industrial level fouling is going on which may mean fouls by Southampton and yellow cards to Arsenal.

Southampton are top of the yellow card charts at the moment with 33, same as Manchester United.  Although Arsenal are only one behind.   Much will depend on the referee.

In the meanwhile you can read previews of other games and predictions as to their scores on our Football Predictions website.





4 Replies to “Southampton v Arsenal: the analysis and the prediction”

  1. As I will be attending a board meeting and then will watch the match with my fellow board members of the Arsenal Belgium supporters club in a pub I will not be able to write my usual live match report. Sorry about that

  2. So’ton have a new coach. That could be a factor against us in addition to the well reported defensive deficiency in personnel.

  3. To me, other than the unforeseen happening in the game as it’s being played which no one has foreseen to block it from happening, or can predict it’ll happen. But nevertheless, despite the suspensions of 2 Arsenal regular game starting centrebacks from playing in the match, still, it will not come as a surprise if the in form 5th placed in the table Arsenal go on and beat the 19th placed in the table Southampton in the PL match this afternoon today at St. Mary’s. For, I’ve not foreseen nor see any serious football problem on the Arsenal side that could constitute a hindrance to them in the game hindering them from beating the Saints and go on a 3 game winning run in all matches and at the same time extend their current unbeaten run in all matches to 23. I believe it is these extending their winning run and their unbeaten run today that will motivate the Gunners in the game more than anything else to beat the out of sorts Saints team.

  4. Ralph Hasehutti, the new Saints’ manager is looking to have chosen a 3-6-1 playing formation style to start the match as against Unai Emery, the Arsenal head coach adopting the playing formation style starts of 4-3-3 for the match in the following starting XI formation.

    Bellerin Lichtsteiner Koscielny Monreal;
    Guendouzi Torreira Xhaka;
    Mkhitaryan Aubameyang Iwobi.

    Cech Elneny AMN Ramsey Ozil Lacazette Nkethia.

    I think Hasehutti plans to pack the midfield to slow the Gunners down from getting to the Saints 18 yard. However, I think the Gunners can overcome the Saints midfield bus packing strategy by playing long balls accurately passed to their 3 front runners of: Auba’ Mkhi’ & Iwobi who must deliver on target hitting the Saints’ back of the net as many times as when they get the chances to do so. Guendouzi Torreira & Xhaka will of course be doing the mobup job shielding their back four as they contain the Saints from incursing into the Arsenal area, but occasionally busting forward one at a time into the Saints area to give assist or try to score.

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