The top 6 head to head and the run in to the PL title

by Andrew Crawshaw

As you all know our match on Sunday against United was our last this season against the other ‘top six’ clubs.  All of the others have two matches to play against each other.

Here is the current mini-league table

P W D L +/- Pts
Man City 8 6 1 1 12 19
Liverpool 8 3 4 1 6 13
Arsenal 10 3 3 4 -4 12
Chelsea 8 3 2 3 -5 11
Spurs 8 2 1 5 -2 7
Man United 8 1 3 4 -8 6

Interesting that we have double the points this season compared with last, which must point to an overall improvement.  Our three wins have all been at home where we have only lost against Man City.  Away we have had draws against United and Spurs and losses against Chelsea, City and Liverpool.

Here are the results to date in this mini-league and the dates of the outstanding games.

Home Team Away Team
Arsenal Chelsea Man City Man United Spurs Liverpool
Arsenal 2 – 0 

Anthony Taylor

0 – 2 

Michael Oliver

2 – 0

Jonathan Moss

4 – 2

Mike Dean

1 – 1

Andre Marriner

Chelsea 3 – 2

Martin Atkinson

2 – 0

Michael Oliver

2 – 2

Mike Dean

2 – 0

Andre Mariner

1 – 1

Andre Marriner

Man City 3 – 1

Martin Atkinson

6 – 0

Mike Dean

3 – 1

Anthony Taylor

20 Apr 2019 2 – 1

Anthony Taylor

Man United 2 – 2

Andre Marriner

29 Apr 2019 24 Apr 2019 0 – 3

Craig Pawson

0 – 0

Michael Oliver

Spurs 1 – 1

Anthony Taylor

3 – 1

Martin Atkinson

0 – 1

Kevin Friend

0 – 1

Mike Dean

1 – 2

Martin Atkinson

Liverpool 5 – 1

Michael Oliver

14 Apr 2019 0 – 0

Martin Atkinson

3 – 1

Anthony Taylor

31 Mar 2019

I added the referees for reference.  8 different referees have been used – Anthony Taylor and Martin Atkinson have each done 5 matches so far, Michael Oliver, Mike Dean and Andre Marriner four apiece and Jonathan Moss, Craig Pawson and Kevin Friend one each.

So what of the run-in for each of the top six:-

Date Arsenal Chelsea Liverpool City United Spurs
TBC Wolves v Arsenal Chelsea v Brighton Spurs v Palace
17/3/19 Everton v Chelsea Fulham v Liverpool
30/3/19 Fulham v City United v Watford
31/3/19 Cardiff v Chelsea Liverpool v Spurs away at Liverpool
1/4/19 Arsenal v Newcastle
2/4/19 Wolves v United
5/4/19 Southampton v Liverpool
6/4/19 City v Cardiff
7/4/19 Everton v Arsenal Spurs v Brighton
8/4/19 Chelsea v West Ham
13/4/19 United v West Ham Spurs v Huddersfield
14/4/19 away at Liverpool Liverpool v Chelsea Palace v City
15/4/19 Watford v Arsenal
20/4/19 Arsenal v Palace City v Spurs away at City
21/4/19 Cardiff v Liverpool Everton v United
22/4/19 Chelsea v Burnley
24/4/19 away at United United v City
26/4/19 Liverpool v Huddersfield
27/4/19 Spurs v West Ham
28/4/19 away at United Burnley v City United v Chelsea
29/4/19 Leicester v Arsenal
4/5/19 Arsenal v Brighton Chelsea v Watford Newcastle v Liverpool City v Leicester Huddersfield v United Bournemouth v Spurs
12/5/19 Burnley v Arsenal Leicester v Chelsea Liverpool v Wolves Brighton v City United v Cardiff Spurs v Everton

City and Liverpool look out of reach now and set to fight it out for first and second place.

Spurs, ourselves, United and Chelsea are fighting for second to sixth and Wolves and Watford best of the rest for the final Europa League place.   Leicester and West Ham are only just behind Wolves and Watford and will also be looking for a strong final push for seventh place. No-one will be odds-on in games against these four teams and in away matches a draw would probably be a good result.

Spurs, currently just one point above us, still have to play both City and Liverpool away and will quite possibly get no points from those.  They have home games against Palace,  Brighton, Huddersfield, West Ham and Everton which look winnable as do their away match against Bournemouth.  Prediction 16 points finishing on 77 and finishing third.

We have three home matches against Newcastle, Palace and Brighton all of which we should win.  Our five away matches are against Wolves, Watford, Everton, Leicester and Burnley which is the only game we should be favourites for.  I can’t help think that we will need to win against two of Wolves, Watford, Everton and Leicester for fourth place and get at least two points from the other games if we are to experience St Totteringham’s day.  Prediction 15 points finishing on 75 points and fourth in the League.

United have matches at home to Chelsea and City and will probably drop points against City, from our point of view a draw with Chelsea would be the best outcome. In their other six games they are at home against Watford, West Ham and Cardiff.  Watford will be tricky but they should win the other two.  Away from home they have Wolves (also tricky), Everton and Huddersfield. Prediction 15 points finishing on 73 points missing out on fourth spot by two points.

Chelsea have one more match to play than our other rivals but are away to both City and Liverpool where it is difficult to see them getting points.  They are at home to Brighton, West Ham, Burnley and Watford so should win at least two of those (West Ham and Watford being potential banana skins).  Their other away matches are at Everton, Cardiff and Leicester.  Cardiff should be three points but Everton and Leicester could be trouble.  Prediction 15 points finishing on 72 points and sixth place in the League.

If we play away from home like we did against United there is no reason for us not to finish third and celebrate the return of St Totteringham’s day.


12 Replies to “The top 6 head to head and the run in to the PL title”

  1. First number is probability of a win, second is probability of a draw, third number is probability of a loss. Fourth number is a measure of how different one of the listed teams is from the target team, so Huddersfield is the least like the spuds, of the 8 teams listed.

    For the spuds:
    CPalace 0.7402 0.1307 0.1292 3.9541
    Liverpool 0.0876 0.6083 0.3041 8.0003
    Brighton 0.7676 0.1162 0.1162 4.2897
    Hudder 0.9628 0.0186 0.0186 17.1971
    Man$ity 0.0894 0.6071 0.3035 6.6519
    StateAid 0.6957 0.1525 0.1518 3.4635
    Bournemouth 0.6519 0.2320 0.1160 3.5157
    Everton 0.6688 0.1782 0.1530 3.4270
    Spuds 16.0353680491841 + 61=77

    Wolves 0.4551 0.3767 0.1682 4.9677
    Newcastle 0.7345 0.1327 0.1327 5.2192
    Everton 0.5350 0.3252 0.1398 4.6574
    Watford 0.4894 0.3529 0.1576 4.2763
    CPalace 0.7137 0.1440 0.1423 4.4579
    Leicester 0.5638 0.2941 0.1421 4.6428
    Brighton 0.7430 0.1285 0.1285 4.8176
    Burnley 0.7374 0.1750 0.0875 5.0254
    Arsenal 16.8453478800007 +60=77

    For ManU:
    Watford 0.5507 0.2373 0.2120 3.3826
    Wolves 0.4113 0.4070 0.1817 4.8918
    StateAid 0.6261 0.1873 0.1866 3.7232
    Everton 0.4902 0.3567 0.1531 4.5236
    Man$ity 0.0974 0.4513 0.4513 5.9088
    Chel$ea 0.3177 0.3412 0.3412 3.7157
    Huddersfield 0.9267 0.0489 0.0244 17.2870
    Cardiff 0.8296 0.0852 0.0852 5.3636
    ManU 14.8638059812821 +58=73

    For Chel$ea
    Everton 0.5076 0.3447 0.1476 3.7008
    Cardiff 0.7771 0.1486 0.0743 4.8512
    StateAid 0.6428 0.1789 0.1783 3.0728
    Liverpool 0.0702 0.6199 0.3099 8.1796
    Burnley 0.7910 0.1045 0.1045 3.5322
    ManU 0.2636 0.4909 0.2455 3.2137
    Watford 0.5682 0.2281 0.2037 2.7773
    Leicester 0.5378 0.3113 0.1509 3.6696
    Brighton 0.7221 0.1390 0.1390 3.7377
    Chel$ea 17.2073483223339 +57=74

  2. I can’t help but think that we would probably do better in the league if we didn’t have any Europa League fixtures to worry about. With a full week between most fixtures and no need to rotate the players, we should be able to improve our away form. I am not saying we shouldn’t try to beat Rennes but some of the most recent form turnarounds (Chelsea (2017) ManU (2015)) after finishing out of the top six definitely were aided by the absence of European fixtures.

  3. The rest of the games are not easy , but totally winnable. Do hope we finish the season strongly , and get to celebrate St. Totteringham’s Day this year. Do really miss it !

    As for the Europa Cup , a continued run is most welcome .Am sure we have the back up to manage all these extra games.
    Up the Gunners !

  4. Good mathematical assessments workout and predictions of the final 8 match results for all the PL top 6 club teams. But since football game outcome is not totally dependent on mathematical calculations alone but on other factors such as: a surprise result that is not thought of will happen but has happened, inaccurate referee decision that can unduly affect the outcome of a match to the advantage and to the disadvantaged one of the opposing teams, injuries suffered to some key players in a team that could affect their quality performance negatively impacting on their results for a period of time and the mistakes committed by players during the playing of a match or matches that could also impact negatively on the results obtained by a team should also be taking into account to come into play when making the predictions of the final outcomes of all the 8 games left to play for each of the top 6 club sides in the PL. But for Chelsea it’s going to be 9 games.

    As us Gooners are optimistic Arsenal will finish in the top 4 places this season but if they play it safe to not drop a single point or points out the remaining 27 points that are left for them to collect to not give any chance to any of their top 6 rival clubs to capitalise on to overtake them to the 3rd or 4th position in the final table finish. So too the rest of Arsenal top 6 rival club sides are optimistic they will finish in 3rd or 4th place too. Therefore, it is being envisaged it’s going to be a big fight to finish for 3rd or 4th in the table during these last 8 matches. And it’s likely going be a rat race finale to the end of the season for Arsenal, Chelsea, Man Utd and Tottenham Hotspur to grab 2 of the remaining top 4 places left in the table for grabs. And I am of the thinking it’ll be the 2 fittest teams outside the 2 supper fittest club teams of Liverpool and Man City of this campaign one of which will win the League title that will finish 3rd and 4th.

    In this wise, I am of the belief Arsenal have the potential in team capacity and in team coaching know how that can successfully see them through their remaining 8 PL matches to finish 3rd in the table at the end of this season’s campaign. And they should finish 3rd.

    Main while, let’s for now keep our focuses focused on Arsenal must knock out Stade Rennais from ELC competition match at the Ems tonight. And let us start praying for them to cross this line tonight.

  5. It’s interesting to point out that we have won 11 points out of 18 against our rivals for two Top 4 positions (Spurs, Man U, Chelsea). We could and should have had more from those games as Auba missed the penalty v Spurs in the dying minutes of the game, Kolašinac gifted an equalizer to Man United at Old Trafford while Auba and Mkhitaryan missed number of great chances at Stamford Bridge when we should have been way ahead of them before the break.

  6. Wondering whether this site is behind UEmery and the great job he is doing. You ran a few knee jerk ‘articles’ instigated by Walter doing your best to undermine the present coach. Will you ever except Wenger is now out of the picture and are you happy we seem to have steadied the ship and are now chasing down Tottenham again after seasons of little contention.

  7. Really you need to put the possible dates of all teams possible european fixtues as they could have a major bearing on the results of these games. Also the presumtion that teams will lose to pool and city is dangerous as those games teams step up for and can go either way. I still think we need to win all but one game to get third however with games like wolves away that will be very difficult especially with our away record which cant suddenly be ignored.

  8. Mied Ems puts us one up at Borehamwood. Her 17 th league goal of the season and 26th in all matches. 12 minutes played

  9. Andrew doesn’t _have_ to do that. If you feel it is important, you can look those up and put that in your post.

    I gather that was Miedema that scored?

  10. Half time at Borehamwood and still just the one goal. We’ve hit the post twice and nearly had an own goal but for a goal line clearance.

  11. Messit I am sorry I don’t understand your comments. Why is the word “articles” in inverted commas? And how can you say we were doing our best to undermine the present coach. If we wanted to do that we would be far, far more effective about it = especially with around 11 years experience.

  12. messit46

    Personally I love the new coach.

    He is doing a great job and will hopefully one day match Wengers immense record.

    Hopefully one day he will prove to be even better than Wenger.

    But as of this moment:

    Emery is out of the FA Cup.

    Wenger won this in 2014, 2015 and 2017 yet was called a failure.

    Emery is out of the League Cup:

    Wenger got to the final in 2018 just last year, only getting beaten by a team that cost 100’s of millions to assemble and may possibly be crowned the best team in Europe this year, which I personally think they are on what I’ve seen, and he got critisised.

    Emery is through to the quarters of the EL, which is great, but Wenger got through to the Semi finals just last year and got critisised for that.

    Emery is out of the title race and has been for months. He may he may not get top 4.

    Wenger got critisised for finishing 4th, 3rd and 2nd between 2014 and 2016. Even in 2017 he only failed to attain 4th on the last day of the season missing out by a single point.

    I would bother to mention Wenger if it wasn’t for idiotic comments like this:

    “…..after seasons of little contention.”

    What are you claiming Emery is in contention for then?

    THE TITLE ? Hardly.

    If you’re saying Wenger hasn’t been in contention for ‘seasons’ despite a 2nd and 3rd placed finish then sitting in 4th, 14 points off the leaders is hardly in ‘contention’ either is it?

    THE LEAGUE CUP ? Hardley.

    If your saying being losing finalists isn’t in contention then being knocked out early is hardly in ‘contetion’ either is it ?

    THE FA CUP ? Hardly.

    If you’re saying Wenger winning it 3 times in 4 years in recent history wasn’t being in contention then being out of it already is hardly in ‘contention’ either is it ?

    THE EUROPA LEAGUE ? Well possibly.

    But if you’re saying Wenger getting to the semi final wasn’t being in contention how is just getting to the quarter final ?

    Yes we all know last year was not as good as we all hoped, and if last years performance was all that was being referenced in order to critisise Wenger there would be a point, but that’s not what happens is it?

    We get comments like this, and it bares saying again:

    “…..after seasons of little contention.”

    As I say, I would be happy to enjoy what we are doing now under Emery.

    I am optomistic for the future.

    But when people come on here making ridiculous sweeping statements that simply fail to have any basis in truth or reality simply to critise our past manager I will not stand by and let it go unchallanged.

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