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Burnley v Arsenal. We need early goals and then shut up shop, but no fouls

By Bulldog Drummond.

As our recent analyses of games from the perspective of fouls and cards has suggested there are reasons to believe that some games in the PL are edged in favour of certain clubs.  Not all of course, and not every game for certain clubs, but the various articles published here do push the conclusion in the direction of thinking something is not right.

As we have said many times, such a suspicion is not the same as saying there is match fixing going on, but rather it is a suggestion.   In the same way that because of the highly secretive way in which PGMO and the League work hand in glove, with the tiny number of referees, the geographic imbalance of referees, and the strange statistics that all this produces, we have reason to think that the Premier League might be fixed.

Yesterday’s piece made the argument that Arsenal get many more yellow cards than one might expect giving their level of fouling, which gives reason to suggest that things are not right.  And it is interesting that the media makes nothing of this, never once reporting on these statistics which are hidden by the League – not being reported on their own statistic-heavy website.

But let us move on…

Physioroom has Arsenal listed with eight injuries and suspensions – the second highest in the league.  Burnley are more mid-table with just four.  However it may be that their accounting software has gone a little awry, (or of course it could be me) because they have Aubameyang listed as suspended for this game.

The refereeing actions that got Auba sent off with a straight red came against Palace, and since then we have played Sheffield U, Chelsea, and AFCB, which using the abacus and double checking against the infamous “supercomputer” which predicts match results, makes three games missing. Which was what he got.

I likewise think that David Luiz is now able to play again, but again Physioroom has him out due to a red.

So I’m counting them as back with us which leaves the injured as…

Player Injury Details Return? Test?
Calum Chambers Knee Injury Ruptured the anterior cruciate ligament of his left knee. 29/08/2020 None
Kieran Tierney Shoulder Injury Back in March or April 14/03/2020 None
Reiss Nelson Thigh Injury Jan 20: “Hoping to return to full training in the winter break period.” 16/02/2020 None
Cedric Soares Knee Injury Jan 23: “Cedric is out for three weeks maybe with a ligament injury in the knee.” 15/02/2020 None
Shkodran Mustafi Ankle/Foot Injury Possibly recovered; late fitness test 02/02/2020 50% chance Late Fitness Test
Sead Kolasinac Thigh Injury Jan 20: “Hoping to return to full training in the winter break period.” 02/02/202 25% chance Late Fitness Test

And in terms of players out on loan, here is the list for the second part of the season:

Watch Arsenal Live Streams With StreamFootball.tv

  • Ben Sheaf (Doncaster)
  • Emile Smith Rowe (Huddersfield)
  • Tyreece John-Jules (Lincoln)
  • Konstantinos Mavropanos (FC Nürnberg)
  • Deyan Iliev (Jagiellonia Bialystok, Polish top division)
  • James Olayinka (Northampton)

If we look at both clubs’ results since Boxing Day (on which both sides played) we get a run of eight games in each case.  Here is Arsenal’s …

Date Game Res
Score Competition
26 Dec 2019 AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal D 1-1 Premier League
29 Dec 2019 Arsenal v Chelsea L 1-2 Premier League
01 Jan 2020 Arsenal v Manchester United W 2-0 Premier League
06 Jan 2020 Arsenal v Leeds United W 1-0 FA Cup
11 Jan 2020 Crystal Palace v Arsenal D 1-1 Premier League
18 Jan 2020 Arsenal v Sheffield United D 1-1 Premier League
21 Jan 2020 Chelsea v Arsenal D 2-2 Premier League
27 Jan 2020 AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal W 1-2 FA Cup

So we can take a positive – just one defeat in the last eight.   Three wins and four draws, and scoring one or two goals in every game.

Burnley’s last eight games are less positive with five defeats and three wins – but no draws.

Date Game Res
Score Competition
26 Dec 2019 Everton v Burnley L 1-0 Premier League
28 Dec 2019 Burnley v Manchester United L 0-2 Premier League
01 Jan 2020 Burnley v Aston Villa L 1-2 Premier League
04 Jan 2020 Burnley v Peterborough United W 4-2 FA Cup
11 Jan 2020 Chelsea v Burnley L 3-0 Premier League
19 Jan 2020 Burnley v Leicester City W 2-1 Premier League
22 Jan 2020 Manchester United v Burnley W 0-2 Premier League
25 Jan 2020 Burnley v Norwich City L 1-2 FA Cup

However when it comes to home games, Burnley are a top ten team, quite possibly because of the uniquely difficult situation that away clubs face at the ground.  Or perhaps the unusual refereeing situation.  (Tables below as at 5pm yesterday)

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 13 13 0 0 35 9 26 39
2 Leicester City 13 8 3 2 26 14 12 27
3 Manchester City 12 8 2 2 31 12 19 26
4 Tottenham Hotspur 12 7 2 3 23 12 11 23
5 Manchester United 12 6 4 2 24 12 12 22
6 Everton 12 6 3 3 15 13 2 21
7 Newcastle United 13 5 5 3 12 12 0 20
8 Chelsea 12 5 3 4 16 12 4 18
9 Burnley 12 6 0 6 16 18 -2 18
10 Brighton and Hove Albion 12 4 5 3 16 13 3 17

Against this we have to pitch Arsenal’s away record…  The goal difference is the same, but Burnley have picked up the points by winning six, as opposed to our winning two.  They’ve got no draws and we have had seven.

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 12 11 1 0 25 6 19 34
2 Manchester City 12 8 1 3 34 15 19 25
3 Chelsea 13 7 2 4 27 22 5 23
4 Leicester City 12 7 1 4 28 12 16 22
5 Southampton 13 6 2 5 18 18 0 20
6 Sheffield United 13 4 7 2 13 12 1 19
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 12 4 5 3 17 15 2 17
8 Crystal Palace 12 3 5 4 12 16 -4 14
9 Arsenal 12 2 7 3 14 16 -2 13

So there must be some hope given that Burnley have lost six home games…  And indeed three of the five defeats recorded in the chart since Boxing Day were home games – against Man U, Aston Villa and Norwich City.

However the fact that Burnley lost against Villa and Norwich – both relegation candidates but beat Leicester shows that there are indeed curious issues happening.   I would suggest that the issue is a refereeing one – but I don’t have the statistics to prove that either way.  Just a feeling.

We are going to need a tough defence that gives the referee absolutely no excuse to cave into the baying of the home crowd.  In short, a few goals early on and then utterly shut up shop and hold the ball on the half way line.

But as yesterday’s figures show, the ref is very likely to pile on the yellow cards against Arsenal.

7 comments to Burnley v Arsenal. We need early goals and then shut up shop, but no fouls

  • Menace

    I am a passionately biased Arsenal supporter that despises the PGMOL for robbing the game of fair officiating.

    Shearer wants Burnley to foul Arsenal to Kingdom come while Wrighty wants Arsenal to win.

    I would love to hear the honest oiinions of all supporters in here (biased or not).

    COYG

  • Menace

    4.18 mins and Lowton should have a yellow card. Didn’t get the ball but took Saka’s knee.

  • Menace

    The cheating referee insists on Saka going off the field following the earlier injury. Saka is in pain but the officiating being biased will not allow the player treatment on the pitch.

  • Menace

    Dytch getting in Moss’s ear about Arsenal while his players go to town on hurting Arsenal with any tackle that can get contact.

    Lacazette was fouled in the box by Tarkowski that should have been a penalty that VAR should have checked in between the burgers & chips from Uxbridge,

  • Menace

    Wood diving like a bitch and expecting a foul but even the biased official was embarassed.

  • Menace

    Auba & Laca still weak n the uptake of excellent chances. Something is missing in their attitude, perhaps the lack of protection is having an effect.

    Burnley being given carte blanche to foul.

  • Menace

    The cheat books Ozil for dissent following a Burnley player bending low when Ozil has the ball at his feet waist high. The PGMOL instruction is book Arsenal players for being on the pitch. The cheating bastards are above the law and beneath contempt.

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