Burnley v Arsenal. We need early goals and then shut up shop, but no fouls

By Bulldog Drummond.

As our recent analyses of games from the perspective of fouls and cards has suggested there are reasons to believe that some games in the PL are edged in favour of certain clubs.  Not all of course, and not every game for certain clubs, but the various articles published here do push the conclusion in the direction of thinking something is not right.

As we have said many times, such a suspicion is not the same as saying there is match fixing going on, but rather it is a suggestion.   In the same way that because of the highly secretive way in which PGMO and the League work hand in glove, with the tiny number of referees, the geographic imbalance of referees, and the strange statistics that all this produces, we have reason to think that the Premier League might be fixed.

Yesterday’s piece made the argument that Arsenal get many more yellow cards than one might expect giving their level of fouling, which gives reason to suggest that things are not right.  And it is interesting that the media makes nothing of this, never once reporting on these statistics which are hidden by the League – not being reported on their own statistic-heavy website.

But let us move on…

Physioroom has Arsenal listed with eight injuries and suspensions – the second highest in the league.  Burnley are more mid-table with just four.  However it may be that their accounting software has gone a little awry, (or of course it could be me) because they have Aubameyang listed as suspended for this game.

The refereeing actions that got Auba sent off with a straight red came against Palace, and since then we have played Sheffield U, Chelsea, and AFCB, which using the abacus and double checking against the infamous “supercomputer” which predicts match results, makes three games missing. Which was what he got.

I likewise think that David Luiz is now able to play again, but again Physioroom has him out due to a red.

So I’m counting them as back with us which leaves the injured as…

Player	Injury	Details	Return?	Test?
Calum Chambers	Knee Injury	Ruptured the anterior cruciate ligament of his left knee.	29/08/2020	None
Kieran Tierney	Shoulder Injury	Back in March or April	14/03/2020	None
Reiss Nelson	Thigh Injury	Jan 20: “Hoping to return to full training in the winter break period.”	16/02/2020	None
Cedric Soares	Knee Injury	Jan 23: “Cedric is out for three weeks maybe with a ligament injury in the knee.”	15/02/2020	None
Shkodran Mustafi	Ankle/Foot Injury	Possibly recovered; late fitness test	02/02/2020 50% chance	Late Fitness Test
Sead Kolasinac	Thigh Injury	Jan 20: “Hoping to return to full training in the winter break period.”	02/02/202 25% chance	Late Fitness Test

And in terms of players out on loan, here is the list for the second part of the season:

So we can take a positive – just one defeat in the last eight.   Three wins and four draws, and scoring one or two goals in every game.

Burnley’s last eight games are less positive with five defeats and three wins – but no draws.

Date	Game	Res	Score	Competition
26 Dec 2019	Everton v Burnley	L	1-0	Premier League
28 Dec 2019	Burnley v Manchester United	L	0-2	Premier League
01 Jan 2020	Burnley v Aston Villa	L	1-2	Premier League
04 Jan 2020	Burnley v Peterborough United	W	4-2	FA Cup
11 Jan 2020	Chelsea v Burnley	L	3-0	Premier League
19 Jan 2020	Burnley v Leicester City	W	2-1	Premier League
22 Jan 2020	Manchester United v Burnley	W	0-2	Premier League
25 Jan 2020	Burnley v Norwich City	L	1-2	FA Cup

However when it comes to home games, Burnley are a top ten team, quite possibly because of the uniquely difficult situation that away clubs face at the ground.  Or perhaps the unusual refereeing situation.  (Tables below as at 5pm yesterday)

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Liverpool	13	13	0	0	35	9	26	39
2	Leicester City	13	8	3	2	26	14	12	27
3	Manchester City	12	8	2	2	31	12	19	26
4	Tottenham Hotspur	12	7	2	3	23	12	11	23
5	Manchester United	12	6	4	2	24	12	12	22
6	Everton	12	6	3	3	15	13	2	21
7	Newcastle United	13	5	5	3	12	12	0	20
8	Chelsea	12	5	3	4	16	12	4	18
9	Burnley	12	6	0	6	16	18	-2	18
10	Brighton and Hove Albion	12	4	5	3	16	13	3	17

Against this we have to pitch Arsenal’s away record…  The goal difference is the same, but Burnley have picked up the points by winning six, as opposed to our winning two.  They’ve got no draws and we have had seven.

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Liverpool	12	11	1	0	25	6	19	34
2	Manchester City	12	8	1	3	34	15	19	25
3	Chelsea	13	7	2	4	27	22	5	23
4	Leicester City	12	7	1	4	28	12	16	22
5	Southampton	13	6	2	5	18	18	0	20
6	Sheffield United	13	4	7	2	13	12	1	19
7	Wolverhampton Wanderers	12	4	5	3	17	15	2	17
8	Crystal Palace	12	3	5	4	12	16	-4	14
9	Arsenal	12	2	7	3	14	16	-2	13

So there must be some hope given that Burnley have lost six home games…  And indeed three of the five defeats recorded in the chart since Boxing Day were home games – against Man U, Aston Villa and Norwich City.

However the fact that Burnley lost against Villa and Norwich – both relegation candidates but beat Leicester shows that there are indeed curious issues happening.   I would suggest that the issue is a refereeing one – but I don’t have the statistics to prove that either way.  Just a feeling.

We are going to need a tough defence that gives the referee absolutely no excuse to cave into the baying of the home crowd.  In short, a few goals early on and then utterly shut up shop and hold the ball on the half way line.

But as yesterday’s figures show, the ref is very likely to pile on the yellow cards against Arsenal.