Burnley v Arsenal: what can Arsenal do to overcome the stats?

by Bulldog Drummond

To avoid the dangers of match fixing, Arsenal need to get into an early lead and show Burnley that they are wise to their multiple fouling tactics.  Then if our analysis is right and the referee will be giving more yellows against Arsenal as opposed to against Burnley, it won’t matter so much.

And this can happen as can be seen from recent results between the two

Date Game Res Score Competition
08 Mar 2009 Arsenal v Burnley W 3-0 FA Cup
16 Dec 2009 Burnley v Arsenal D 1-1 Premier League
06 Mar 2010 Arsenal v Burnley W 3-1 Premier League
01 Nov 2014 Arsenal v Burnley W 3-0 Premier League
11 Apr 2015 Burnley v Arsenal W 0-1 Premier League
30 Jan 2016 Arsenal v Burnley W 2-1 FA Cup
02 Oct 2016 Burnley v Arsenal W 0-1 Premier League
22 Jan 2017 Arsenal v Burnley W 2-1 Premier League
26 Nov 2017 Burnley v Arsenal W 0-1 Premier League
06 May 2018 Arsenal v Burnley W 5-0 Premier League
22 Dec 2018 Arsenal v Burnley W 3-1 Premier League
12 May 2019 Burnley v Arsenal W 1-3 Premier League
17 Aug 2019 Arsenal v Burnley W 2-1 Premier League

The Guardian, which in common with the rest of the media makes no comment on the disparity between the number of fouls and number of cards picked up by each team this season gives us…


Bellerin Sokratis Luiz Saka

Torreira Xhaka

Pepe Ozil Martinelli


That leaves them with a beach made up from Martínez, Mustafi, Holding, Willock, Guendouzi, Ceballos, Nketiah, Marí, Soares, Kolasinac

Sportsmole gives us exactly the same starting XI.

Squawka have one change


Bellerin, Sokratis, Luiz, Saka;

Torreira, Xhaka;

Pepe, Ozil, Aubameyang;


The Daily Express has another variation


Bellerin Luiz Sokratis Saka

Ceballos Xhaka

Pepe Ozil Aubameyang


And that for the most part makes up the prime variations that the pundits are going for.

Sky Sports have been raiding their Opta account to try and find a few extra bits and pieces and have come up with these three gems…


“Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored seven goals in four Premier League appearances against Burnley, averaging a goal every 51 minutes; among players with 300 or more minutes against an opponent, only Luis Suarez against Norwich (one goal every 45 minutes) averages a better minutes-per-goal ratio in Premier League history.”


“18-year-old Bukayo Saka has more assists in all competitions than any other Arsenal player this season (7). Meanwhile, fellow 18-year-old Gabriel Martinelli is the Gunners’ second highest scorer in all competitions this term (10).”


“Gabriel Martinelli is looking to become only the fourth player aged under 19 to score in three consecutive Premier League appearances, after Danny Cadamarteri (October 1997, Everton), Michael Owen (December 1997 and May 1998, Liverpool) and Francis Jeffers (May 1999, Everton).”

So there we have it.

55 Replies to “Burnley v Arsenal: what can Arsenal do to overcome the stats?”

  1. Can’t see us getting a penalty given how Sean Dyche’s one man crusade regarding how we are the masters of ‘cheating’ and ‘diving’ is given such credence.

    Just the one link but it’s all over the web.


    Given the miniscule number of penalties we get, despite Dyches accusations, if we do dive we obviously aren’t that good at it.

    The referee will be fully aware of his views and are extremely unlikely to want to incur the wrath of Dyche should the occasion arise.

    We’ll see.

  2. OT: Man$ity Women v Arsenal Women

    Their kickoff is the same time as the men. As is typical of them, they put their lineup in a picture which I don’t see. But, I have their list of players on the beach: Peyraud-Magnin, Quinn, Beattie, Filis, Grant, Mace. I’m not having any success at finding another source of the lineup.


  3. Kavanagh has let the game kick off, and 1 minute in he still hasn’t called a foul against us.

    Bellerin, Mustafi, Luiz, Saka
    Guendouzi, Xhaka
    Aubemeyang, Ozil, Martinelli


  4. On the beach we have: Martinez, Sokratis, Ceballos, Torreira, Pepe, Willock and Nketiah.

    First foul of the game goes to Burnley, followed shortly by one to Arsenal.


  5. 28m in, fouls are 1:1 and no cards. At 25m, Arsenal need a treatment. Sargeant Kavanagh Schultz sees NOTHING.

    Last twit in the womens game was at 13m.


  6. Half time. Fouls were even until just before half time. And suddenly Arsenal get 3 fouls and Ozil gets a card (breathing on someone?).

    Half time for the women. Man$ity scored at 43m.


  7. The cheat books Ozil for dissent following a Burnley player bending low when Ozil has the ball at his feet waist high. The PGMOL instruction is book Arsenal players for being on the pitch. The cheating bastards are above the law and beneath contempt.

    I’ve been commenting on the previous thread.

  8. The foul by Lowton on Saka in4.18 mins should have been a yellow, but the PGMOL official didn’t issue one as Saka’s leg was not broken. Apparently a fracture doen’t count as a sufficient foul on Arsenal.

  9. Saka now replaced by Torrira, probably as a result of that treatment Burnley inflicted on Saka. And Sargent Schultz seen NOTHING.


  10. Xhaka gets a yellow for being in the way of a Burnley player that runs into him.

    This is a common ploy by those who are supported by PGMOL. Torreira get a similar card for another Burnely player that dives over the little fella.

  11. At 57m, fouls are 3:8. Xhaka gets the second yellow card of the game. Breathing on someone? And now Torreira booked.

    We need to be shooting more, and more on target.

    On the womens game, Man$ity just scored again.


  12. Fucking Refs, they clearly know that no matter how blatant the bias and the bullshit the media and Riley will do nothing

  13. The PGMOL game advantage is already visible with 3 yellows to key defensive players.

    The Lowton tackle was a clear indication of how the PGMOL cheat.

  14. Burnley went something like 20m without conceeding a foul? Kavanagh starting to even things out early? We’ll see if Burnley start getting yellows soon.


  15. When an official can see a Burnley player reverse into an opponent with force and not get the ball he must call the foul but not against Arsenal its a award of glory.

  16. All football players and teams are equal; it is just that some are more equal than others.

    George Orwell, Animal Farm


  17. A Pope elbow knocks Luiz to the floor following a corner, and then falls over him on his way back into goal. No VAR for dangerous play ………..shocking

  18. 72m, Arsenal need another treatment. Sargeant Schultz sees NOTHING. Approaching end of game, fouls evened out to 8:11 and Kavanagh even found it in his ice-cold heart to give Burnley a yellow.

    The women scored a goal, now chasing for a second.


  19. What a cheating bastard this ref!! Guendouzi fouled several times within yards of this selective visioned git but all the opponent gets is a talking to!!

  20. Another positive result for PGMOL with anothe bunch of banana yellows that will have a few players sit out games in the future. The cheating goes on. Shearer upset that Burnley couldn’t kick the rich boys from the Capital.

  21. So 0-0

    Personally I have no issues with the result or the ref.

    For the first time since Arteta’s arrival I was disappointed with the overall display.

    Lacked the energy I’ve seen.

    Should of been 2 up early on and again, despite the stick our defenders get, it’s the forwards that let us down.

    Still, not the worst point in the world but cant help but feel a bit disappointed.

  22. Game ends 9:11 on fouls and 1:3 on cards. Field still tilted.

    No final statements on the womens game yet. Twitter slow I guess.

  23. The miss by Burnley proves there is a God. The disappointment of Shearer is nectar. Uriah Renee rules OK.

  24. @Nitram – no issues with the ref?? Look at the tackle on Saka by Lowton on 4.18 mins. It should have been a yellow but a good official would have given a red. Played to injure an opponent without any attempt on the ball.

  25. Nope. No issues with the ref.

    Saw that tackle. Yes, it could of been a yellow, no way a red. But Ozils first foul on 41 mins could of been a yellow but he let that go too. That’s why Ozil got booked for his second foul, kicking the ball away and arguing, 5 mins later.

    Menace, I am on the same page as you most of the time but you have to be careful, because calling that foul on Sake a red is very harsh.

  26. The women lose 2:1.

    How dare these teams come here from the Capital, and let us kick them all over the park! Sure, it’s cheating, but we deserve to kick them. After all, the Capital is why we have all these foreigners taking all our jobs.

  27. I think games like this are where we have to be careful about how we analyse it.

    Yes, Burnley were aggressive but at no point did I feel they were OVERLY aggressive.

    As arsenal.com said, I don’t think we were ‘bullied’, we stood up to them, but never the less they disrupted our play and that was there aim. You cant blame them for that. It is up to us to be good enough to play around it and we weren’t.

    I say credit Burnley on a good display and, despite the disappointment, credit us for standing up to them.

    A 2-2 rather than 0-0 would of been a fairer reflection of the match, but I still say a draw was a fair result.

  28. Easily our worst display under Arteta to me we lacked fluency but better than what we had with Emery ,
    Couldn’t hold the ball so didn’t have control of the game , agree with Nitram and Walter should have done better with the chances we created .
    No complaints about our yellow cards all justified if you go with the letter of the laws

  29. Nitram – very harsh? The boy has probably got a fracture. His pain is not imaginary. I have a good eye for the cause of injury on a football field and Lowton tackle injured Saka. He thinks it is his hip but nervous pain has strange manifestation. We will get a better idea after the scan.

  30. Menace

    He may well be injured but I, like everyone else, has seen the challenge many times, including in slow motion and I think it is a touch and go Yellow.

    If you think it was red that’s up to you.

  31. Not at our best today, too many of our players appeared unwilling to take a Burnley player on in promising positions and opted instead to pass back to the defenders. This stopped us building any pressure so potential good attacking positions were therefore not capitalised on. My only gripe with ref was his yellow card for Ozil but no yellow cards for at least two Burnley players for similar shows of dissent, unless Ozil used some bad language of course.
    Watching the Spurs game and City had a penalty saved by Loris who was clearly off his line when the ball was struck. Apparently VAR cannot get involved in these instances, it is up to the on field officials who in this case did not spot the transgression. Does anyone know or can explain the logic, sense or reason behind this rather odd situation. Surely these ‘matter of fact’ decisions are precisely the ones that VAR should rule on. Is it just us in the UK that does things this way or is it the same in other leagues.

  32. As I pointed out in my comments, there was a stretch of about 20 minutes where Burnley was not charged with a foul. How likely is it, that Burnley actually committed no fouls in that interval? It is more likely, that PGMO just decided to not notice anything for quite a while.

    This has been happening a bit in the last couple of seasons. There was a game last season, when the spuds went 72m before they were charged with their first foul.

  33. The Fowl run game is officiated by dancing Dean the cock a hoop referee.

    What chance does City have?

  34. mick shelley

    “Watching the Spurs game and City had a penalty saved by Loris who was clearly off his line when the ball was struck. Surely these ‘matter of fact’ decisions are precisely the ones that VAR should rule on”.

    Spot on.

    I thought it was there to rule on ‘clear and obvious errors’, which by their subjective nature fouls etc. are much more difficult to judge, but a keeper on or off his line is, as you say, exactly what they can rule on without any (if that is possible) controversy.

  35. Nitram, it is now very clear VAR means different things to different teams.
    A frustrating performance but Arteta is going to need time, PGMOL aside, we are not on our lowest Feb points total by accident.
    But, they have a break in the sunshine, a bit of time together, Time to get to know the new manager and his methods, I expect things to improve in our next few games, including three league games in a row, Newcastle, Everton and West Ham. The Arteta regime will start taking off then, obviously a long way to go, he needs to recruit, and his own pre season, with reports he inherited a lack of fitness within the squad.
    The squad is talented but unbalanced as many have cited, a lack of goals from MF are an issue when the strikers are not firing. Ramsey has not been replaced, nor have his goals and assists. There are also key players whose awayday stats are poor.
    A very poor season will soon start improving, it needs to!

  36. Mandy Dodd

    “The squad is talented but unbalanced as many have cited, a lack of goals from MF are an issue when the strikers are not firing. Ramsey has not been replaced, nor have his goals and assists. There are also key players whose awayday stats are poor”.

    Absolutely spot on.

    “A very poor season will soon start improving, it needs to”

    Fingers crossed.

  37. There is absolutely no way that Mike Dean will ever be pulled up by VAR for a clear and obvious error x we all know he never makes any. His decisions are always fully considered – at least in the eyes of his PGMO overlords.

  38. OT: Spuds 2 0 Man$ity

    Oh boy, a Christmas tree! Dean the twit for PGMO. Fouls are 8:14, yellows are 2:5 (1 of the 5 was a second yellow). Dele Diver is down for atreatment at 13m, and Sargeant Dean Schultz sees NOTHING. Dean gifts Man$ity a penalty at 40m, which is missed. The spuds need another treatment at 68m, and Sargeant Schultz sees NOTHING. The spuds need a third treatment at 85m, and Sargent Schultz sees NOTHING.

  39. I hope you get a chance to see the ‘made for TV’ Mike Dean 500th celebration. He is so cool and human. He loves football specially Rochdale. It made me want to puke!

    The problem is I think he is a fine example of a corrupt evil bastard. I suppose Christianity teaches me to love the slime ball. I just can’t!!

  40. A challenge by Sterling on Deli Ali which was as bad, if not worse than Auba’s, was deemed only a yellow card. Sterling caught Ali with a studs up lunge on the ankle similar to the one Auba received a red card and three game ban for.
    Doesn’t seem right does it but unfortunately it’s just typical of the PGMOL double standards we are subjected to on a weekly basis.

  41. I agree with Mandy that the loss of Aaron Ramsey has had a big effect , he was the only midfielder to break from midfield and go beyond the forwards

  42. Steve Vallins and Mandy Dodd

    “I agree with Mandy that the loss of Aaron Ramsey has had a big effect , he was the only midfielder to break from midfield and go beyond the forwards”

    true enough.

    I think Tierra tries, and is as similar as we have, but just isn’t as good/clinical as Ramsey was.

  43. I’m following Beth Mead on Twitter. Today, she retweeted Natasha Harding (captain of Reading F.C. Women), who said “We deserve better. Our league needs better.” She wasn’t talking about refreshments.

  44. I am beginning to think, that someone needs to take into Arsenal Home and Away games, a software defined radio setup which can record the RF during a game. And do this for an entire season.

    I suspect the PGMO radio link is encrypted.

    You do this (recording) for a season, and then look to “analyze” things, so as to reduce the chance of PGMO changing the encryption during a season.

    If the radio data is encrypted; it could take a while to break the encryption. Having more data to break a lot of encryption is better than just a little data. It is likely that they have only ever used a single encryption since 😈 Mike Riley became PGMO Overlord.

    You break it once, you get all of the data (that someone) recorded.

  45. mick shelley
    02/02/2020 at 8:28 pm – my thoughts exactly.

    Gord – I’m surprised that the media who have tapped phones and hacked into celebrity mobiles have not done the officiating radio. The police must have access to the radio frequencies and the fraud squad should investigate manipulation of money, including laundering as foreign bookies could be involved.

  46. I have to agree with many here , that this was probably our worst showing under Aerta, but no fault oh his .
    We started off well , had a few early chances that should have been put away , and made the game easier . But the second half retreat into our own half , was rather disappointing.
    This team is good enough to turn over teams , but they seems to be something vital missing . Hope we regain our spark at home over next three games.

    Up the Gunners !

  47. Brickfields, yes the team does have something missing, it is a certain Welshman who it seems Emery, and perhaps his boss viewed surplus to requirements, and replaceable, but never replaced. And Pepe isn’t, and never will be a replacement for Ramsey, completely different player.
    No point crying over spilt milk but people who decided Ramsey could go for nothing , without replacement shouldn’t be at the club, one down, one to go.

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