Spending money (part 2): Arsenal’s biggest problem and how to solve it

This is part two of  the article Will spending money work for Arsenal this summer? And if not, then what? which appeared earlier today.

For Arsenal the most obvious thing to do, in order to progress up the league next season, is to look at the number of draws this season and turn just a few of those into wins in 2020/1

Here is the league table based on draws.  Dr pos = league position based on fewest draws.

	Dr pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	1	Liverpool	38	32	3	3	85	33	52	99
2	2	Manchester City	38	26	3	9	102	35	67	81
4	3	Chelsea	38	20	6	12	69	54	15	66
20	4	Norwich City	38	5	6	27	26	75	-49	21
11	5	Southampton	38	15	7	16	51	60	-9	52
18	6	AFC Bournemouth	38	9	7	22	40	65	-25	34
5	7	Leicester City	38	18	8	12	67	41	26	62
17	8	Aston Villa	38	9	8	21	41	67	-26	35
10	9	Burnley	38	15	9	14	43	50	-7	54
16	10	West Ham United	38	10	9	19	49	62	-13	39
12	11	Everton	38	13	10	15	44	56	-12	49
14	12	Crystal Palace	38	11	10	17	31	50	-19	43
19	13	Watford	38	8	10	20	36	64	-28	34
6	14	Tottenham Hotspur	38	16	11	11	61	47	14	59
13	15	Newcastle United	38	11	11	16	38	58	-20	44
3	16	Manchester United	38	18	12	8	66	36	30	66
9	17	Sheffield United	38	14	12	12	39	39	0	54
7	18	Wolverhampton Wanderers	38	15	14	9	51	40	11	59
8	19	Arsenal	38	14	14	10	56	48	8	56
15	20	Brighton and Hove Albion	38	9	14	15	39	54	-15	41

A small number of draws can mean either the club is doing well (potential draws being transformed into a win – ie gaining two extra points with just one goal) or a club doing poorly (potential wins slipping into draws, losing two points by conceding one goal).

To have come fourth in the league, Arsenal needed 10 more points and eight more goals.   The simplest way to have got those would have been to have taken five of those 14 draws and turn them into victories, in the process grabbing or not conceding eight goals: three games with two additional goals in our favour, two with just one.

That is it, that is all that we needed: five of the 14 draws turned into victories.  Draws from any five of these seven games turned into victories

Date	Match	Result	Score	Competition
15 Sep 2019	Watford v Arsenal	D	2-2	Premier League
27 Oct 2019	Arsenal v Crystal Palace	D	2-2	Premier League
23 Nov 2019	Arsenal v Southampton	D	2-2	Premier League
01 Dec 2019	Norwich City v Arsenal	D	2-2	Premier League
21 Dec 2019	Everton v Arsenal	D	0-0	Premier League
26 Dec 2019	AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal	D	1-1	Premier League
11 Jan 2020	Crystal Palace v Arsenal	D	1-1	Premier League

These were all games that looked winnable, and we just needed five out of seven of these to be victories to get that Champions League spot.

Now that to me does not look like a requirement that needs a wholesale overthrow of the existing team and the introduction of millions of pounds worth of new players.   And the point here is that those people who do ceaselessly advocate more and more transfers forget the negatives of this approach (what we might call, after this current season, the “Aston Villa Approach”).  Multiple transfers can lead to a lower position in the league (as happened to Arsenal this season) as much as a rise up the table.

It is clear that when purchases are made in bulk, most of them tend not to work.   But not only do they not work on the pitch, they also have a negative effect on the rest of the team, unsettling the system, causing resentment and an unsettled feeling among other players (especially young players), raising expectation among naive fans who anticipate instant success, and then causing negative comments from fans and journalists, because the player has not delivered – which also unsettles the team.

Second, Arsenal do have a remarkable array of young talent emerging.  Not only can some of these players come through and make a difference for Arsenal, when that happens it encourages other youngsters to come to the club, for Arsenal gets known as a club that will bring talented youngsters through.

This season we have seen eight players come through (it would be nine of Guendouzi could still be included, but I fear not).   I’ve included Rob Holding because although he was a transfer in, it was a £2m deal from Bolton which resulted in a fair amount of negative criticism.  And Smith Rowe who has been on loan all season, but immediately been given a full 97 minutes in the last league game.  Substitute appearances are in brackets.

Player	Age	Games	Mins	Goals	Assists
Bukayo Saka	18	19 (7)	1755	1	5
Ainsley Maitland-Niles	22	15 (5)	1383	–	2
Rob Holding	24	6 (2)	581	–	–
Gabriel Martinelli	19	6 (8)	657	3	–
Eddie Nketiah	21	7 (6)	633	2	–
Reiss Nelson	20	7 (10)	628	1	–
Joseph Willock	20	8 (21)	849	1	1
Emile Smith Rowe	20	1 (1)	97	–	–

My point is that nothing attracts young players to a club like the reputation of giving them a chance, and that list certainly is a perfect example of this.  If most of those players are now set aside because another £100m is spent on transfers, then so much the worse for Arsenal.

There is also the point that in terms of squad arrangements next season (and possibly 2021/2) look like being chaotic with no one knowing at this stage what the new player limitation rules will be.  The FA are looking to decrease greatly the maximum number of players who are not eligible for England in each squad of 25.  They are also obviously abandoning any reference to the EU.  But we still don’t know the details of how many non-English players each PL can have from next season on.

This in turn means that all sorts of restrictions could be brought in by the FA and backed by the highly nationalist Brexit approving government.   Thus we can’t take it for granted that the flow of youngsters into the team will be maintained – so showing our youngsters getting a chance will resonate throughout the youth game and attract more top talent to Arsenal.

Of course I don’t have any influence over Arsenal; I can only hope that the club looks at the money it spent last summer and the lack of harmony that some of those transfers has brought, plus the way that the media has been telling us that much of the money was wasted, and then think…

What we need is stability.

• Fifa in chaos as Infantino’s illegal meetings revealed and chief Swiss lawman resigns
• Disappointments this season, hopes for next season: the journalists’ vision
• The ten (sorry six) (sorry 3) big big stories about next season’s Arsenal team.