By Bulldog Drummond
Our review of the referee performances this year with Arsenal and Aston Villa, and our review of the home and away performances of the club, and the review of recent games, all suggest the two sides are evenly matched. We’ve also noted that the most common result in the Premier League this season is an away win.
The BBC however is giving a tip of Villa to win 2-1. They also note that as “Arsenal are without the suspended David Luiz in defence so they might change their shape and go with three at the back – but I fancy Villa to edge this one anyhow.”
But as ever they do find some amusing snippets for us to munch upon. Snippets such as the fact that Aston Villa have lost 16 of their past 18 Premier League matches in the month of February, only beating Norwich in 2016 and drawing at Cardiff in 2014.
Could that be an omen. It would be jolly nice if it were.
Arsenal’s squad is valued at £498.6m by Transfermarket while Villa’s is valued at £298.17m – so if transfers mean anything much, we should win 2-1 not the other way round.
In terms of defence Arsenal are still in second position in the league with 22 goals conceded in 22 games – the same as Tottenham. Aston Villa are however only two places below with 24 goals conceded. That makes it sound likely to be a 1-1 draw.
Here’s another point, and this not one from the BBC. Last season Arsenal had two goalless draws: away to Everton and away to Burnley. In 2018/19 it was one goalless game. In 2017/18 it was four in all competitions.
This season we have had four already, against Liverpool, Leeds, Palace and Manchester United (although the Liverpool game was goalless at the end of the 90 minutes. It went on beyond that.
It 2016/17 it was back to the normal two goalless games. Let’s hope we have had our fill of the 0-0 draws for this season. Four is surely more than enough.
What we really need is the spirit that gave us five straight wins at the start of the season
|29 Aug 2020||Arsenal v Liverpool||W||1-1 (5-4)||FA Community Shield|
|08 Sep 2020||Ipswich Town v Arsenal||W||1-2||Football League Trophy|
|12 Sep 2020||Fulham v Arsenal||W||0-3||Premier League|
|19 Sep 2020||Arsenal v West Ham United||W||2-1||Premier League|
|23 Sep 2020||Leicester City v Arsenal||W||0-2||League Cup|
We haven’t gone beyond that this season although we did get five in six games, with a draw in between. Those led to victories against Chelsea, Brighton and Hove, West Bromwich Albion, Newcastle (twice) and the draw against Palace
This is all a bit disappointing since Mr Emery did give us 12 straight wins between August and October in 2018. While we must also remember that Mr Wenger at the end of his final season did give us a run of six straight wins in March and April 2018, taking out AC Milan (twice), Watford, Stoke, CSKA Moscow and Southampton.
Consistency is the first building block of success. (I just made that up but seems more or less reasonable).
- Aston Villa v Arsenal: “We’re trying to manage Tierney”; Arsenal 5% advantage
- Aston Villa v Arsenal: statistics point to a balanced game.
- Arsenal Europa Squad, the strange technicalities, and why we can’t play at home
- The home and away scandal: ignorance, or cover up?
- The reason why Liverpool and Man C are ahead of Arsenal.
- How which referee a club gets has a major impact on the result of each game
- The statistical evidence that shows PGMO are biased against Arsenal
- How European football has taken up the fight against clubs breaking FFP