We started out this series of articles with a prediction based on the statistics which is different from most sites who predict based on… well, I am never quite sure. Our figures came out as a victory for Arsenal by 1.25 goals to 0.75 goals – which turned from probability into reality looks like 0-1 to Arsenal or 1-1 or maybe 1-2 to Arsenal. Last season it was a goalless draw.
You can read the rest of our previews through the links at the foot of the article.
So what of the team, and how to watch it (aside obviously from having a ticket and going to Falmer)?
It’s on Sky Sports with the teams announced at 4.30 and a 5.30 kick off. The referee is Anthony Taylor. His record this season is below, using data from WhoScored.
| Referee | Apps | Fouls pg | Fouls/Tackles | Pen pg | Yel pg | Yel | Red pg | Red |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Taylor | 13 | 19.92 | 0.52 | 0.15 | 3.54 | 46 | 0.15 | 2 |
| Home Team only | 13 | 10.38 | 0.56 | 0.15 | 2.15 | 28 | 0.08 | 1 |
| Away team only | 13 | 9.54 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 1.38 | 18 | 0.08 | 1 |
So Mr Taylor seems to favour the away team slightly, which probably comes from him being mindful of the bias that many referees show in favour of the home team due to the effect of the crowd (something we have discussed on this site many times before and for which there is a huge amount of evidence).
But what about the results that come from Mr Taylor’s approach? Here are the figures from the three referees who have overseen more Premier League games than any other referees.
| Referee | Apps | HomeWin% | AwayWin% | Draw% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Oliver | 13 | 61.5 | 38.5 | 0.0 |
| Paul Tierney | 13 | 61.5 | 30.8 | 7.7 |
| Anthony Taylor | 13 | 30.8 | 38.5 | 30.8 |
Mr Taylor has an incredibly low home win rate – only one referee who has overseen ten games or more has fewer home wins under his belt, and then only fewer by 0.8%.
So from this historic point of view of this ref, Arsenal are in with an equal chance of taking the match. (Incidentally, we should though look at figures like this from the point of view of referee bias. Why do Oliver and Tierney persistently dish out home wins, and why does the media never question figures like these?).
But to move on… According to reports Brighton have only one player doubtful – Danny Welbeck, while Moder and Webster are out and Caicedo is suspended. MacAllister is still on his world cup recovery break.
The Arsenal injuries have been well-publicised. Tomiyasu and Smith Rowe are doubtful – the former with a hamstring and the latter still on his recovery programme. Jesus is of course looking on from on high and Nelson seems to have a long term injury but there are few details available.
The Guardian gives us the team of
Ramsdale
White Saliba Gabriel Zinchenko
Odegaard Party Xhaka
Saka Nketiah Martinelli
90 min give us exactly the same team. As does the Standard.
Football London however has a variation suggesting that Tierney is fit to play.
Radio Times goes with the mainstream for the team, but also kindly gives us a suggestion for a score, and they go with 1-2 to Arsenal.
You can read the rest of our previews through these links.
Recent Posts
- Destroyed by injuries? How does Arsenal really compare to the rest of the PL this campaign?
- How international injuries have decimated the Premier League
- Flashback: Arsenal’s 5-4 Defeat of Spurs 20 Years Ago
- Is the Premier League about to split in two?
- Does form tell us anything? Yes but probably not what you thought…
Well, City and Newcastle losing 2 points each. Arsenal have their work cut out for them : win baby win and be 7 points clear ! COYG
A good win despite some odd refereeing. Seven points clear!
How is it possible that for all the rough treatment and fouls that Saka gets subjected to only one yellow card all season has been awarded to his assailants. Saka himself, not particularly noted for his dirty play and aggression, has received four yellow cards. Can someone explain this strange state of affairs?
Taylor was a disgrace today, persistently ignoring transgressions by Brighton whilst penalising us for similar.
I keep being fascinated by the fact that our ragtag group if youngsters are 7 points clear of City.
I mean, City, you know, the billion dollar worth club…the endless moneypit club. The club where Zinchenko and Jesus where just not good enough.
Yes, maybe we did not play all the tough games yet, we did not lose any of the so-called ‘easier’ games ?
And all the 4 main players of our forward line have scored tonight. This goal spread is abolutely fascinating.
Freaking unbelievable. Still 22 games to go….. but I’m starting to feel they have what it takes stay on top. Mr Arteta DEFINITELY is a great manager.
Happy Newyear my fellow Gooners! And what a great way to end the year…. More of the same in 2023…
Happy New Year to all.
Good performance today to overcome Taylor as well as Brighton
Happy new year gooners onwards and upwards 💪