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RefWatch – Arsenal Vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (27/12/2011 – 15:00)



Untold Arsenal on Twitter @UntoldArsenal


By DogFace

  • Referee: Stuart Attwell
  • Assistant 1: Peter Kirkup
  • Assistant 2: D C Richards
  • 4th Official: Lee Probert

Good morning stat-fans and welcome to RefWatch…
It’s just a quick one today as Christmas has been the usual pandemonium in the DogFace household and, quite frankly, I’m knackered… also – Zhu Zhu pets? WTF? I don’t understand – am I getting old?

The more astute among you may have noticed that we did not have a RefWatch for the last match – this is because we has Jonathan Moss as the ref and it was his first league match in charge of an Arsenal fixture and only his second for a Aston Villa game i.e. little to no data and, as he’s just come up from the Championship, we didn’t really have much in the way of ‘form’ on him at all.

And this got me thinking… and when I start thinking I start doing – so, to point out to the less astute of you – a few things have changed in the world of RefWatch!

First off we have a new acronym for you to memorise and this is ‘ECH’ (many thanks to ‘Jack_Tors’ for coming up with this as the best I had was NPC) – anyway, this stands for ‘English Championship’ and I now have full data going back 10 odd years on that built into my database – which might be revealing but is certainly interesting.

Secondly – there was a bug in the booking index charts where some seasons bled into the next and the previous every now and then… apologies for that – all fixed now I think… but there may be new bugs now so if you spot any then please let me know in the comments.

Asian Handicap (betting line) market:

Home Handicap Away
1.975 0 – 1 3/4 1.925

The Under/Over market:

Over Handicap Under
1.850 3 2.050

Let’s have a look at the Referee:

  • Full name: Stuart Attwell
  • Date of birth: 06-Oct-1982 (Age 29)
  • Place of birth: Nuneaton
  • Resides: Warwickshire
  • EPL/ECH Referee Since: 2006/2007
  • EPL/ECH Games to date: 62

Stuart Attwell
Stuart says: “Why not search Untold Arsenal’s archive by Month or Categories?”

It’s Stuart Attwell again… you remember him:

Stuart Attwell has had numerous high profile cock-ups along the way to his meteoric rise through the English leagues and into the Select Group – so obviously someone ‘up there’ seems to think that he’s made of the right stuff.

Let’s check out his stats!

FPB = Fouls Per Booking (vertical axis)
BPM = Bookings Per Match(line width)
AHS = Asian Handicap Swing i.e. the deviation from the expected result(vertical axis)
PPG = Points Per Game(line width)
Therefore a high thin line for FPB/BPM would indicate a lot of fouls and very little bookings – and a low thin line for AHS/PPG would indicate an underperformance against the betting line and very few points taken.

Stuart Attwell has had 3 games for Arsenal consisting of 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses.

Arsenal are currently in 4th in Stuart Attwell’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 3 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 2.33 PPG.

In Stuart Attwell’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 3 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 6th with an average positive swing of 0.33.

Arsenal are currently in 18th in Stuart Attwell’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 3 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 2.67 BPM.

In Stuart Attwell’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 3 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 22nd with an overall average of 3.50 FPB.

Not much data there with 3 games but 2 wins and a draw doesn’t seem that bad on the face of it. This season the FPB/BPM for us and our opposition have converged too which is also encouraging.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal took all their bookings under Stuart Attwell.

Fairly consistent for us there bookings averaging out for the defence around the halfway mark and heavy bookings taken in the midfield that average out on the 60 minute mark.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal’s opposition took all their bookings under Stuart Attwell.

We can see that our opposition have taken fewer bookings under Attwell but there was an early one coming in the midfield this season at around the 25 minute mark.

FPB = Fouls Per Booking (vertical axis)
BPM = Bookings Per Match(line width)
AHS = Asian Handicap Swing i.e. the deviation from the expected result(vertical axis)
PPG = Points Per Game(line width)
Therefore a high thin line for FPB/BPM would indicate a lot of fouls and very little bookings – and a low thin line for AHS/PPG would indicate an underperformance against the betting line and very few points taken.

Stuart Attwell has had 5 games for Wolverhampton Wanderers consisting of 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss.

Wolverhampton Wanderers are currently in 11th in Stuart Attwell’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 3 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 1.20 PPG.

In Stuart Attwell’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 3 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Wolverhampton Wanderers come 7th with an average positive swing of 0.28.

Wolverhampton Wanderers are currently in 22nd in Stuart Attwell’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 3 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 3.40 BPM.

In Stuart Attwell’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 3 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Wolverhampton Wanderers come 19th with an overall average of 3.76 FPB.

Stuart Attwell has had five games worth of league data for Wolves and we can see some crazy bookings going on last season for them. This season they have fared a little better in the booking figures (although they were still punished more than their opponents) but they also fared less well in the PPG/AHS by hitting the handicap with zero points.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Wolverhampton Wanderers took all their bookings under Stuart Attwell.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Wolverhampton Wanderers’s opposition took all their bookings under Stuart Attwell.

Both of the above graphs would seem to indicate a fairly brutal few games. This worries me slightly I do hope that Stuart Attwell can keep on top of any reckless challenges and we don’t see this fixture degenerate into a shit-kicking contest.

Let’s move on now to check out how Stuart Attwell performs against selected teams in the EPL:

The ine thickness represents the average Points Per Game and the position of the line against the vertical axis represents the average swing againd the handicap.

There doesn’t seem to be any clear favourites here but the standout performers are Manchester City who, despite showing an underperformance in the 2010/2011 season, have taken good points throughout all three seasons they have played under Stuart Attwell.

The Predictortron gives Arsenal a 2.437500 goal advantage… BUT – we don’t have a lot of data AND this game stands alone today so watch out for any key underperformances throughout!

If you trust the Predictortron and its cruel logic then why not support this site and lose some cash here.


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43 comments to RefWatch – Arsenal Vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (27/12/2011 – 15:00)

  • Mandy dodd

    Thanks for the info, hopefully we will be ok tomorrow, a lot of rivals dropping points today, may it continue.
    This ref does not have any special history against us like some I could mention, but. He is very unpredictable in games I have seen. Let’s hope the ref does not need to decide anything major tomorrow.
    On the subject of refs, I have posted my views on another thread, but how bad was dowd today? Always seems to favour tHe same teams. This ref needs to be watched very closely, he seems very predicatable.

  • Gord

    I’m sorry, I don’t know what to do with Zhu Zhu’s. At the moment, I’m running my own experiment about cooking a small turkey inside a bag, with about 2 litre of yogurt. It’s a slow oven, so my guess is another hour before I even have to think about checking temperatures.

    I’m just thinking out loud, feel free to ignore me. 🙂

    Actually, this is too long, do ignore me. But maybe a bunch of people could work at this at some point.

    There are the odd good referee in the world (perhaps even in the UK) that has now retired, and for which there is data. Well, there may be data going back to amateur officiating, but I doubt that is available. But, there may be data over their professional officiating career, over their career doing the top level professional in their country, over their career doing internationals, in their career doing cups (like FA Cup), in their career doing World Cup (UEFA, CONCACAF, ….) matches and so on. Some of those categories overlap.

    But, for any now retired referee, a person should be able to derive averages, and possibly even curves to describe how their behavior evolved over time.

    Officials just working professional matches for the first time are likely to behave differently than when they were officiating non-professional matches. The highest level professional league should be different, and all the international exposure should have some effect.

    Does getting top amateur referees involved in professional leagues at a young age help/hinder? What about international exposure?

    I made a comment on another thread about this upcoming game (originally scheduled for Attwell I believe), where I was asking about the chance he would be replaced because the game was going to be delayed by 24 hours. I’m guessing that didn’t happen.

    I like giving people a chance. To me, it seems like Attwell has used his chances, he should go back to doing what he was doing before he was brought up to do EPL games. He was probably good at that (which is why he was recognized). He would probably get more enjoyment from it, and fans would benefit from not having to get made at him so much.

    Lots of systems seem to promote people beyond the level they are comfortable with. The better systems seem to allow people to go back to the level they were functional at (if they agree) if they are not effective at the higher level.

  • Sammy The Snake

    A win and moving in to 4th would be nice today. Very nice.

  • Sammy The Snake

    A big improvement for our defense for this year:

    • Arsenal have conceded the lowest percentage of headed goals this campaign (8%)

    Wow!

  • liban

    Great article and Happy New Year to all!!

  • slim

    @Sammy: Would be nice too if the Spuds got pegged back a notched or two today, the few I meet nowadays are getting wayy too cocky, out of their depth I say

  • dan

    spurs will fumble, always have always will.
    Was at WBA vs man Shitty, tell you all the shitty supporters are scum the nastiest piece of human waste in existence. Nasri looks rubbish it’s just not happening for him, being substituted every game got this feeling he’ll regret leaving Arsenal.

  • No preview from me unfortunately – I intended to do it this morning thinking the game was in the evening.

    Fingers crossed we can nick that 4th place above Chelsea. With Harry’s court case looming, Spurs will soon fall apart and we’ll be looking fairly tidy for third hopefully. It certainly would be nice to avoid an Udinese-esque tie early on next season.

    Three points and some RvP goals would be nice. Though I suspect he won’t play all of both these games due to fitness, so perhaps he will miss out on the record unfortunately 🙁

  • Ruaridh

    Extremely unlucky to not score 2, however, after we scored the 1st I can’t help but believe that there was complacency in the 1st half, exemplified by Songs failed back heel.

    Gervinho looked a threat but we lacked a threat on the other wing…

  • slim

    Not a good day.

  • walter

    How on earth we didn’t win this one? An amazing performance from the visiting keeper, again some things from the ref that needs another look (which we will provide of course), and maybe us missing Walcott a bit?

  • slim

    I think RVP had the record on his mind and was trying a bit too hard, it just didn’t come off for him today. All the worse considering how we had 70(?)% possession and missed out on the chance to go above Chelsea and draw level with S****, 2 teams that definitely DO NOT deserve to be above us.

  • Shard

    We just dont score as much as we should.. Against ManCity we created good chances. We also struggled to score against Villa. And today was just so frustrating. We had a bit of bad luck in terms of conceding the goal, and just that the ball didn’t fall for us.. But we still need to be scoring more I think. Take our chances better.

  • Sammy The Snake

    Ouch!

    The Wloves GK had a near perfect game. How is it that some GKs become lions at the Emirates?!!!

  • Anne

    @Shard:

    “Frustrating” really sums it up… I still can’t figure out how it is that we didn’t win. Although you’re right that we should be finishing better, I think.

  • Anne

    One thing that really drove me crazy was the time wasting towards the end… On the stream I was watching, whenever Wolves were wasting time, they would just go straight into showing replays without comment. They were getting in three replays per goal kick or throw-in.

  • Mahdain

    attwell was complete shambles today and i agree than rvp had that record in his mind and hence why he didnt play well..

  • Mahdain

    and one thing i dont understand is why oh why isnt ox getting the chances he deserves? he is more likely to change games than chamakh and arshavin

  • Mahdain

    attwell lost control of the game completely….really why is it that the PL allows shit refs to continue with their jobs? i dont think there is 1 decent ref in the select pool…there are all either incompetent or blatantly biased

  • dan

    Don’t worry folks nothing lost yet. The ref was a complete fool unable to spot persistent time wasting, dirty follow throughs and constant roughing up tactics. The goalie had a blinder and sometimes even we have been guilty of trying to walk the ball in, today was just one of those days when what ever we tried it just wouldn’t happen.

    NO HERE WORRIES PEOPLE.

    Just look back it was only this August the media laughed at us with claims of relegation and European mishaps.

  • Neven

    Looked once again like Attwell had a Jekyll & Hyde game, doing okay in the 1st half and then doing a Dowd in the 2nd. Karate kick from the thug Henry on Song goes unpunished, as does all the time-wasting from Wolves, plus strong appeals for penalties are turned down and Vermaelen’s even booked for daring to question his decisions.

    The referees in this league are a disgrace.

  • bjtgooner

    Attwell was very poor and lost control of the game in the second half. For the first time for many games our players were getting angry with the treatment they were receiving. Wolves really resorted to thuggery at times in their efforts to get a point – and by and large were allowed to do so by Attwell.

    Like others I felt frustrated at the way the match went – but also angry with Wolves and Attwell.

  • Jommy

    We were unliuvky.
    But it just shows we aare a one man teAm. Very disappointed

  • Neven

    @bjtgooner: I must say, I was happy to see our players reacting strongly to Attwell’s atrocities and standing up for one another. A sea change from 2 seasons ago [Denilson & Co.’s zombie-like body language], and may it continue.

  • What an absolute disgrace of a referee. Time and time again he makes mistakes and it just makes one wonder, when is somebody going to do something about this? Mick McCarthy was right to criticise the sending off of Nenad Milijas as it was ridiculous. There has to be a better referee than him somewhere in this country.

  • Mandy Dodd

    It is happening again with the refs and the powers that be, the difference, this time, they do not just want to stop us winning a trophy, they want us out of the top 4, end of.
    What do we have to do to get a pen.
    Having said that, we do not always help ourselves, today was a throw back game, a team comes to park the bus , gets a lucky goal, defends, defends, we are denied in some key decisions and their keeper plays a blinder.
    Annoying…..

  • Tasos

    With the teams around us dropping points this wasn’t a good result. Stuart Atwell is a poor referee but I can’t put the blame solely on his performance for our failure to gain the win today. We really should have had too much for Wolves, especially once they were reduced to 10 men.

    On a side issue. I notice how our friend Mr Dowd eagerly obeyed his duties at Old Trafford yesterday. Just how much evidence is needed before questions are asked about this ref and a formal independant investigation takes place ?

  • DC

    Disappointing result but that’s how it goes at times! Wolves defended stoutly and yet another keeper, had the match of his career against us!
    Walcott was definitely missed today and there was no width on both flanks for the parked Wolverhampton bus! Only one winger is not enough nowadays especially when there are no overlapping fullbacks?! Consequently, why was the Oxo-kid not used? Could certainly have given the width and pace to get behind their bus more so than Arshavin and Chamack!
    Atwell had a poor 2nd half but he was equally poor for both sides so can’t really blame him if we’re totally honest!
    Spurs 2 up against Norwich and their pace, especially from Bale’s width, and little playmakers (Van De Vaart & Modric) is all responsible! Please come back soon Jack, Andre and Bacary! We have to finish above the Spuds! Anything else would be unthinkable!

  • Tasos

    How on earth the BBC website can claim that possession was 50/50 in this game is ridiculous.

  • Anne

    Overall, a really good weekend for Spurs and ManU…Nobody else moved at the top of the table, unless I’m much mistaken.

  • Anne

    Not “weekend,” but you know what I mean.

  • Anne

    @Tasos:

    50/50? That’s…unexpected.

  • DC

    The British media will certainly be oozing with their ‘arry and Spuds loving over the next few days; especially now that Arsenal have dropped more points! Shameful xenophobia!

  • Mahdain

    goodness me im telling you if this spuds wankfest is really getting annoying…,,the media are all over them and calling them all sort of names like entertaining,free flowing bla bla bla and now they are tittle contenders? they have yet to come to ems,go to etihad,play against man utd,stamford bridge calling and ofcourse they go to the home of draws anfield..also this spuds so they are going to have the odd losses to the likes of wigan…dont worry people St Totteringham day is still on the cards and make no doubt about it will happen

  • Mahdain

    what suprises me is that arsenal didnt get this kind of wankfest when we used to do well till december but instead we told we are flattering to deceive and wont be long till our bubble bursts..why are spuds getting different treatment? ofcourse there are st arry`s team so they deserve all the credit they get…once thing people also forget is that they have been very lucky with injuries..wait till they settle in and see where they are in may

  • Looking forward to the Ref Review as that was a shocker.

  • DC

    @Mahdain,
    Well, said!
    Let’s wait for the inevitable injuries to the tiny-totts’ golden boys then we’ll see what the Messiah ‘arry can wheel & deal and conjure up then!
    As usual he’ll try and buy his way out with more debt-ladening players in his squad and he’ll be praised for it; while Arsene will be criticised for being thrifty or labelled as “panic-buying” as he was with Arteta and Mertesaker! So much bias & favouritism but no matter; we’ll see who smiles largest and longest, YET AGAIN, come May! St Totteringham’s day will be memorable but the “wankfest” will surely end with tears for the Lilly-white lovers as they once again succumb and prove to be the 3rd best team in the capital! Hello again Europa league, our old friend!!!

  • Mahdain

    even they are not confident with their team…even when they are winning they still sing about us…that ladies and gentlemen is what is called small team mentality

  • C4

    I think we exhausted our quota for penalties this season with the 1 we were awarded vs Aston Villa. So the refs can’t give us any more. Unless of course, we behave ouselves and keep our naughty little paws off those reserved top 4 spots. Then we might get 1 or 2.

  • @C4
    There should never be a quota for penalties. Certain teams commit more fouls than others.

  • C4

    @Benedict Harrison
    Sure, there shouldn’t be a quota. But the way the refs are giving them to us so sparingly, you’d think therre IS a quota.
    I’m also getting the impression that some teams have caught on to the fact that a large number of penalties and even just regular fouls are not given to us, so they REALLY push their luck when playing against. They don’t take such chances against manure or the other darling teams, their ‘physical’ style of play suddenly vanishes, and they 4get how to park their bus.

  • Asif

    I guess the first half did us in…the second half was just Wolves defending and us attacking. But in the first half, we should have tried to score a couple. This is where we are disappointing, the team could see that they were playing well adn hence no serious effort to score. The goalkeeper had the game of his life…A typical Arsenal luck

  • Steve Vallins

    Average teams turn up at the Ems as you all say and park the bus and play above themselves.IMO teams are not frightened of us any more along with a lot of help from referees. Intimidating and good spread of match winning players as in the past a trophy a real good run of results with the press onside could /maybe help our cause
    Too many factors beyond Arsenals control seem effect us , mostly referees in our games but especially in others games Newcastle v Chelsea and more recently Man Utd v Wigan sendings off