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So what is wrong with PL Refs: Case study – Reading

By Walter Broeckx

Next in our series as we cover each and every Premier League team we have READING.

Now before any Reading  supporters comes on here and suggest that it is not the averages but the actual decisions that count (as some fans of other clubs have done) may we suggest you take a look at both the introductory articles which you can find here and here.  You may also enjoy our other site: Referee Decisions.

And so with that out of the way, we can have a look at the statistical pointers we have found when we compare the overall results of Reading with the results of each ref when he does Reading games.

Of course you might have bad experiences with some refs in some games but who, after seeing the statistics, you find are not really that bad in general. You can share your experiences of course. But this article is not really about those games in particular. It is more about the total picture of the referee and this team.

Under the table I will try to give a short explanation on what you see.

Total

won

draw

lost

won

draw

lost

% games

Reading

101

31

21

49

30,69%

20,79%

48,51%

Atkinson

8

1

3

4

12,50%

37,50%

50,00%

6,11%

Clattenburg

5

1

2

2

20,00%

40,00%

40,00%

3,82%

Dean

9

2

1

6

22,22%

11,11%

66,67%

6,87%

Dowd

6

3

0

3

50,00%

0,00%

50,00%

4,58%

Foy

11

2

4

5

18,18%

36,36%

45,45%

8,40%

Friend

13

8

1

4

61,54%

7,69%

30,77%

9,92%

Jones

8

2

6

0

25,00%

75,00%

0,00%

6,11%

Halsey

11

3

4

4

27,27%

36,36%

36,36%

8,40%

Marriner

8

4

2

2

50,00%

25,00%

25,00%

6,11%

Mason

11

7

1

3

63,64%

9,09%

27,27%

8,40%

Moss No games
Oliver

7

3

2

2

42,86%

28,57%

28,57%

5,34%

Probert

9

2

2

5

22,22%

22,22%

55,56%

6,87%

Swarbrick

5

2

0

3

40,00%

0,00%

60,00%

3,82%

Taylor

8

2

2

4

25,00%

25,00%

50,00%

6,11%

Webb

12

5

0

7

41,67%

0,00%

58,33%

9,16%

The most important number for Reading in this table is the win percentage. And so we see that Reading has a win percentage of around 30,69% in the PL era. This is the number we have to look at when we see if Reading over or under perform with certain refs.

We found no games involving ref Moss and Reading. So we can assume that Moss has declared some kind of interest in Reading. We don’t know if he is a supporter or maybe someone who hates Reading. Thinking of that last one…who in fact can hate Reading? They seem to be one of those small (with all respect) teams in the PL who get some sympathy from most other fans. Maybe because it is likely that their survival in the PL is usually rather short.

But whatever the reason may be (another example on how the PGMOL keeps all their cards close to their chest in this closed and secretive secret army), we only have 15 refs doing games of Reading.

Let us start with the “good” refs for Reading. And with good I don’t refer to his decision making on the field but to the fact that Reading win more games when these refs are around.

And the good refs are Dowd, Friend, Marriner, Mason, Oliver, Swarbrick and Webb. Now I must say that I was rather surprised with these numbers. That is seven refs out of the 15 under whom Reading actually win more games than can be expected.  I do notice that there are actually also three refs under whom Reading never had a draw until now. It’s all or nothing when Dowd, Swarbrick or Webb come around.

Now are there any average refs for Reading? And with average I mean refs that come close to the usual win percentage of Reading when they are in charge. Well we can call Dean, Jones, Halsey, Probert and Taylor as refs who come close to the average. That is five refs out of the 15 who we can call average.

So now we need to find those three refs under whom Reading is under performing when we look at the win percentage. And those refs are Atkinson, Clattenburg and Foy. When they come around it doesn’t look good for Reading before a ball is kicked.

So far we have looked at the refs and their win percentage in Reading games. Now we look at the impact the PGMOL can make on the Reading season by choosing the refs for their games. Do we see anything strange?

Well it depends on what you think is strange when we look at the PGMOL. After looking at the numbers from Norwich, QPR and now Reading it looks that the PGMOL is not really interested in them. And by this I mean that the way the refs are appointed it looks as if they really are appointed at random. Because just as with the aforementioned teams Reading has no ref with more than 10% of their games. This means that no ref has a bigger impact than around 9 points in a season.

Personally I would like to see a maximum of six points per ref per team at stake but I can understand that in some cases a ref can be appointed for a third game in a season. Then this ref has a possible impact of 9 points but well that is much better than having some teams who have an impact of 18 points in a season from one ref. Certainly when that ref is a walking disaster for that team.

But not really such a problem for Reading. And that is nice for them. I also would like to draw the attention to the fact that the ref under whom they win most of their games is also the ref that is given the most of their games. So that is very nice of Mike Riley to do this. In case you didn’t know it is Mike Riley who does the appointments of the refs. So it sure looks that he doesn’t hate Reading. But then again who does?

So all is well and good for Reading at first sight? Well that is if you don’t look at the league table I think.

The referee analysis – recent additions

The books…

The sites from the same team…

5 comments to So what is wrong with PL Refs: Case study – Reading

  • Dougal

    Great stats. Is this article up to date though as we had Jon Moss v Aston Villa two weeks ago. 100% defeat ratio for him!

  • Dougal

    Oh damn. Foy this weekend too. Our chances were limited anyway!

  • Florian

    Interesting data Walter, some of the “mediocre” refs are actually closer to the bad side than to their winning average (Dean and Probert namely). Clattenburg actually doesn’t seem that bad, his points percentage is above Dean’s. And no ref is actually within 2% of the 30% average. Halsey is the closest with 27%. Brotherly love from a QPR fan? 🙂

  • WalterBroeckx

    Dougal,
    the data was taken about one month ago. Then putting it in tables, writing articles and then publishing them one a day means we are not really 100% up to date.

    But interesting to know you get all refs it seems.

    And in our usual ref preview we will have a look on how both teams do under ref Foy. Later today or tomorrow the article will appear

  • james masson

    Jon moss has been the ref in 2 games for reading this villa @ home and southampton away both were games that reading lost