By Tony Attwood
Among psychologists it is called Mathswash: the notion of presenting ideas and vague thoughts on what might happen, as if they were firm facts and evidence based predictions. No caveat, no suggestion this might be wrong – just here it is, it’s bleedin’ obvious.
You know the style: If Mr Wenger continues running the club, then this will be the season that Arsenal slip out of the Champions League. It has been said each and every season since Untold started in January 2008, and self evidently has been wrong each time. But it is said each season.
Mix claims and predictions up with some misleading statements – the simpler the better – and repeat them a lot, and very quickly reasoned argument goes out the window.
We have a lot of this in the UK at the moment as we are having a referendum campaign to decide whether we should stay in the European Union or not, and the main thrust of the campaigning is one side saying something akin to, “We will all die of malnutrition if we stay in the EU”, and the other side saying, “no, we will all be as fat as very fat things who have everything we have ever wanted and lots of money to spare if we leave.”
Such evidence as there is, is that that few people are swayed in their views by such nonsense, but it is of interest because we have the same problem on Untold. If we try and have a football debate based on reasoned argument, evidence and logical analysis some people pop up with simplistic one sentence answers, which tends to divert the discussion off course.
Thus the tendency to reduce everything to single sentence statements is not just the norm football, it is not the norm in pretty much anything being debated in the UK.
Part of the reason for this is genetic. We are entities who, when we have no idea of what to make of a situation, will hit on a simple solution and then become absolutely certain this is the right thing to do. As a species we love simplistic solutions, and we find it very, very hard, to shake them off.
It is an ancient response mechanism that is shared with most animals but it is at odd with the diverse sort of behaviour we started to develop around 100,000 years ago which allowed some of the population to think, “hang on a minute, if the power of steam can lift the lid off a saucepan, maybe it could power an engine” and stuff like that.
The trouble is, that’s all a bit complex. “Build a wall between the US and Mexico and get the Mexicans to pay for it” is nice and simple, and that is what people like.
Such simplistic solutions ignore the multiplicity of other factors and the way in which the world will change if this new single solution approach were to be adopted. Trump says, “we’re going to make America great again” without details of consequences, costs, implications or anything else, and some people like it.
Call for Wenger’s resignation and you still have to have a new manager, buy players, get tactics right and sort out a lot of stuff. What evidence is there that the next guy will do better? Figures elsewhere show that most new managers fail. It’s complicated and needs thinking through.
Ban Muslims from entering the US as Trump says, and then maybe Saudi Arabia might stop exporting oil to the US (60% of US oil is imported, and Saudi Arabia is one of the biggest sources). Oil prices could go up. But that’s boring detail. Simple headlines are better.
My point is the degeneration of the debate in football into single issue “do this and all will be sorted” approaches is just a reflection of what our societies do when faced with any issue. It has always been this way inclined (blaming witches in the 17th century, blaming gin in the 18th century, blaming Jews in the 19th century, blaming imperialism in the 20th century, blaming social media in the 21st century). That’s just how it always has been.
So we still have free speech – in fact we have a lot more free speech since the means of disseminating our free speech is available to anyone with an internet connection, But now it means we are all free to say anything, and that is where it gets confusing, as vast numbers of people seem to be pre-programmed to accept an ill-thought out statement as an overwhelming truth. The US would be better off if it banned Muslims, Arsenal would be better off with any centre forward other than Giroud; it’s all part of the simplistic approach.
Of course the first statement is infinitely more worrying than the second, no matter how passionate one might be about one’s club, but still the general point is the same. Let’s do what we have always done: find a scapegoat and thus avoid that most painful of approaches: thinking. Witches, gin, Jews, imperialism, Muslims, social media, Wenger, Giroud… anything you like, and just ignore the evidence, avoid the debate.
The problem is that social media brings us in touch with people who have totally different mindsets and so any discussion that pops up may have little in the way of mutual understanding. I can say Giroud should stay because aside from scoring 24 goals last season, he also plays in a way that allows speedy wingers like Alexis space to score by distracting defenders. You can put forward counter arguments and we debate. If however my verbal opponent says “if you think Giroud is good enough you’re an idiot” free speech exists, but for no purpose.
So we get to the stage where calls for Mr Wenger to go are in fact nothing other than a simple protest vote against the fact that Arsenal didn’t win the League. But the worrying thing is that if we did win the League there would be dismissal calls the following season if we didn’t do the double and at least get to the final of the Champions League. Soon we are at the point where if we don’t win everything and go unbeaten all season, the club has failed and the manager must be sacked.
Meanwhile, because of what are known as cognitive shortcuts – the use of simplistic statements without evidence – we find that points raised in arguments become shorter and shorter, and less and less meaningful, until we end up with, “I want my Arsenal back,” one of the most meaningless sentences in an increasingly meaningless set of exchanges.
One may ask what this means – the Arsenal of the 1930s in which the crowd jeered and booed the best team Arsenal had ever seen by a mile, if they didn’t win by several goals to nil? The Arsenal which in the same era reduced Jack Lambert to tears (while scoring 98 goals in 143 league games). The Arsenal of George Swindin and Billy Wright? The Arsenal of the later Mee years when we only just avoided relegation? The Arsenal of George Graham in which we managed 40 goals in a 42 match league season? The booing of Gervinho? It is a nonsense phrase, but it keeps coming back.
So now we have a suggestion that there was a mythical golden age in which the fans somehow owned the club. That age was on offer between 1910 and 1913 when three times, Henry Norris offered the people of Plumstead and Woolwich the chance to buy the club by taking £1 shares. He’d paid off all the debts out of his own pocket, and sought none of that money back; the club would stay at Plumstead, and he would back away. But each time the share issue failed. So it must be our ancestors fault.
But there is one other point I’d throw in; the question of whether social media actually does affect anything. Or does social media just let people who would have burned witches, sought the prohibition of gin, renounced the building of the empire, rounded up and removed the Jewish population, or whatever the flavour of the day was, have some other outlet for their anger.
For the point about this list of things we have blamed for the failings within our society, is that they are not only diverse, they are all nonsense. Of course when someone takes the approach seriously the results can be awful, but most of the time it is simply a distraction.
It is like having a ball throwing machine and setting it to random throws so that the dog will go chasing. It might muck up the garden a bit, and the dog’s barking and occasional colliding with the fence might annoy the neighbours but otherwise it is just a way of tiring out a rather simple animal.
Certainly all the serious reports I have read about the effect of social media as a way of influencing people en masse the general view is that it has become a fairly neutered activity. Few people are convinced, few change sides. It is actually just a way of letting people make noise.
This is not to say that it is not worth using logic, reason and evidence to point out the failings of one sentence points of view that surround football, politics, religion and most other things today. I think it is, but doing this is for the minority who actually want to spend the time thinking what evidence and debate actually means.
Sadly this minority of people who contemplate evidence doesn’t include political leaders any more than it includes the aaa, but in my view, there is no reason to give up on serious analysis, extrapolation of data and review of options. I thought the analyses of the Fair Play League, the “Arsenal don’t shoot enough” articles and the analysis of the Distribution of Referees articles were really worthwhile, as was the article on the possible reasons for unsupported opinions and the piece on why the media insist on ignoring key issues. Not because we might change anyone’s mind – although if we did that would be nice, but because it makes information available for those who are willing and able to think about issues in more than one concept at a time.
That doesn’t mean that I am saying the people who write in, and without any sense of irony or fun say “you can prove anything with statistics” are somehow lesser human beings than someone who can engage in the debate. I am just saying I doubt that I have the skills to convince those who believe in the validity of one sentence analyses that their reduction of everything to simplicity – but that maybe this doesn’t matter unless the silly buggers start burning women as witches, or banning religious groups.
If the mindless chatter on Twitter and Facebook is the price we have to pay for the continuation of our democracies then so be it. Let’s just not ever think that we can convince these people to contemplate more complex analyses.
And let’s not be reduced to the one sentence level ourselves.
- Arsenal 3 Scotland 0 and the big problem with signing Vardy that seems to be overlooked
- Ooooooooooooooooospina: its Copa America Centenario, and he’s done great
- Blimey – the Vardy bid looks like it is true, and there is a release clause, and it wasn’t all made up
Untold Arsenal has published five books on Arsenal – all are available as paperback and three are now available on Kindle. The books are
- The Arsenal Yankee by Danny Karbassiyoon with a foreword by Arsene Wenger.
- Arsenal: the long sleep 1953 – 1970; a view from the terrace. By John Sowman with an introduction by Bob Wilson.
- Woolwich Arsenal: The club that changed football. By Tony Attwood, Andy Kelly and Mark Andrews.
- Making the Arsenal: a novel by Tony Attwood.
- The Crowd at Woolwich Arsenal by Mark Andrews.
You can find details of all five on our new Arsenal Books page
ha, nice dude..
I try debating people all the time in political subjects… but whenever I spend the energy to give a well written thought out response I normally get: “you must be getting paid to say this!”
For example, with the whole Russia/Ukraine crisis I have seen more than enough evidence to at least consider the fact that the US instigated that coup in Ukraine, when you explain this in detail, people just dismiss you as a Russian paid troll because only that can explain why you have had the time to type so much.
I attribute this behavior to a terminology I call “psychological polarization” this means that if you are not A then you must be B, completely ignoring all the other possibilities, you can apply this to Arsenal and Giroud/Wenger as well.
Our whole political paradigm relies on this psychological manipulation, if you are not in favor of a right wing policy then you must be a leftie and vice-versa, if not you are crazy.
This simple way of thinking (psychological polarization) is just a symptom of the dumbing down of society, people are lazy thinkers who like to moan but not explore the root of the problems, the leading cause of this is TV sub-conscious programming. (look up the patent for the TV and you’ll see this is what it was designed for)
With the EU debate for example people forget is a much more complex issue, if the UK really wanted independence in the hopes of doing what is best for its people then a much more important subject to be discussing is our monetary system, because that is the root of the vast majority of problems we have today, however, as our media is in bed with those who run the monetary system they will never tell the masses of the importance on this subject because the people would naturally do what is best for themselves and not a small group of oligarchs.
“it is well enough that the people of the nation do not understand our monetary system, for if they did I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning” -Henry Ford
Love that you touched this subject a bit, breath of fresh air seeing a profound blog entry related to Arsenal.
You are a ridiculously good writer with common sense. And i am not saying this because i am on one side or the other. You nailed the point on the head, football wise and the rest of the world. Most people see things as black or white, bad or good. Thanks for this. I really enjoyed it.
98 goals in 143 League games by Jack Lambert? And still he was booed and jeered by the Arsenal fans of the 1930 era? By today’s 38 League matches per season format, that shows he would had scored an average of 20-24 goals per season in today’s Premier League game competitions just as some top strikers there had scored last season in the past 3 seasons.
And 1910 and 1913 Arsenal fans passed on the golden opportunity of owning the their Arsenal club by not buying the £1 shares on offer offered to the Arsenal fans at Plumstead and Woolwich to buy and owned Arsenal. Is it that they the Arsenal fans in these 2 areas of London then, don’t have the money they can invest in Arsenal or they don’t have the confidence Arsenal will succeed as business enterprise?
People had always have the conviction they can proffer solution to a problem as a result of man becoming evolutionary in their thinking as they went to school to be educated, became civilised, traveled and became more and more informed in this age of the modern information technology.
Because of the good level of understanding an individual has been enabled to obtained at school and have it enhanced by having access to the mass media, Every persons who cares and have an interest on any subject or matter, would want to believe he has the capacity to express his/her opinion on a matter or issue that needs addressing, I would be Imagining.
When something becomes the matter at Arsenal which needs to be addressed, the Gooners and the pundits will flock out in number using the media to say their options on the matter irrespective if the management of Arsenal accepted their views, opinions and their proffered solutions to the matter or not. In fact, Arsenal fans have taken it on themselves they must comment when something is no working well at Arsenal to their liking. e.g. Arsenal not winning the BPL title in the past 12 years and not haven won the Ucl in the history of the competition.
98 goals in 143 League games by Jack Lambert? And still he was booed and jeered by the Arsenal fans of the 1930 era? By today’s 38 League matches per season format, that shows he would had scored an average of 20-24 goals per season in today’s Premier League game competitions just as some top strikers there had scored last season and in the past 3 seasons.
And 1910 and 1913 Arsenal fans passed on the golden opportunity of owning their Arsenal club by not buying the £1 shares on offer offered to the Arsenal fans at Plumstead and Woolwich to buy and owned Arsenal. Is it that they the Arsenal fans in these 2 areas of London then, don’t have the money they can invest in Arsenal or they don’t have the confidence Arsenal will succeed as a business enterprise?
People had always have the conviction they can proffer solution to a problem as a result of man becoming evolutionary in his thinking as he went to school to be educated, became civilised, traveled and became more and more informed in this age of the modern information technology.
Because of the good level of understanding an individual has been enabled to obtained at school and have it enhanced by having access to the mass media, Every persons who cares and have an interest on any subject or matter, would want to believe he has the capacity to express his/her opinion on a matter or issue that needs addressing, I would be Imagining.
When something becomes the matter at Arsenal which needs to be addressed, the Gooners and the pundits will flock out in number using the media to say their options on the matter irrespective if the management of Arsenal accepted their views, opinions and their proffered solutions to the matter or not. In fact, Arsenal fans have taken it on themselves they must comment when something is not working well at Arsenal to their liking. e.g. Arsenal not winning the BPL title in the past 12 years and not haven won the Ucl in the history of the competition.
As for the politicians, as we all know, a lot of political gimmicks are being floated around by politicians to the electorate to buy them during political campaigns. And often, the politicians if they are elected will kept quiet on the issues they’ve campaigned on the moment they’ve realised these issues can’t afterall be implemented or are not implementable due to one major reason or the other as they sit in their offices to begin work.
Kbanuso – what can I say – I’m overwhelmed.
Is anti-Wenger an Anglo affair, AW well respect elsewhere unfortunately .
Perhaps Arsene is not welcome .
Banners , graffiti on walls and toilets , bumper stickers and clever t-shirt all show us that the prophets have arrived and are walking amongst us . All except for that guy at the street corner who has been holding up that, “THE END IS NIGH ” poster for years !
Oga Tony, I hope you won’t be tired of my commenting.
On the issue of Brexit referendum and religious intolerance, the Britons have got a big tough choise on their minds to decide whether they want IN or OUT of the EU. So every voter in this referendum must be careful to weigh the pro & the con properly before casting his/her vote. Because once a decision on the matter has been taken, it’ll be difficult to revise it.
On the matter of religious intolerance. Which religious group in the World have not been tolerant to other religious groups? I think we all know the religious group who if they have their ways today, other religious groups other than their own will seize to exist.
If a religious action that is dangerous to people’s lives has been going on harming people all over the place with no sign of it abating, definitely action must be taken to stop it or restrict that religious intolerance excesses from continuing. Hence, if Mr Donald Trump is elected, he may do something at curtailing any religious group intolerable excesses behaviour continuing at least in his home country.
AT THE WEDDING
Recently at a wedding reception , someone yelled , ” All the married men please stand next to the one person who has made your life worth living .”
The bartender was nearly crushed to death !
kbanuso
“Most people see things as black or white, bad or good.”
I really wish I did as it would make life so much easier.
I don’t recall seeing you post before so I’m guessing you are new to UA, and if you are you would not know that I have an obsessive hatred of the media. If I am Mistaken I apologise.
On the one hand, yes I hate them with a passion. I go to great lengths to avoid the papers and I never listen to talkshite and very rarely put SKY Sports on, except to watch matches.
But on the other, if a paper is on the table in the mess room I cant resist picking it up. If there’s a rumour we might sign or sell a player I cant resist a peak at SSN.
But then as soon as I have I regret it.
It’s like ‘rubbernecking’ on the M25. You cant resist slowing down to take a peak, but should you by chance spot a mangled limb, or god forbid a dead body and you could be traumatised for life.
You know this but still you have to look.
I’m like this with the media. I hate it with a passion, yet I know it is essential. Yes they are lying, self serving, hypocritical dullards.
But, and this is the sad sad thing about it, without them things would be even worse.
Fifa, Uefa, Politicians, are all bad enough as things are, but can you imagine for one second just how bad they would be if there was NO media at all?
It doesn’t bare thinking about.
I hate the media with an absolute passion, but I wouldn’t be without them.
It’s a funny old World.
If only things where Black and white, good or bad, life would be so much simpler.
Well written article. The parallels drawn between what’s happening at AFC and other world events is so true. Argument for the sake of argument is just hollow. And we all know from the age old saying hollow vessels make the most noise like them boo boys. This whole lack of epl glory for 12 years is the most futile of the lot because anyone should know that in any competition, there is only one winner. The next question is has the club u support tried their best which can be evident from where they’ve finished by looking at the tables. But what I find most irritating is how WOB keep at it, yet none have mentioned a replacement or a strategy. Simply because they don’t know what to do, so why bother with demonstrations etc etc.
I hope the Vardy transfer goes through.
If we get Mikhtaryan in then that would be a serious piece of business. A top top player who would give serious balance to Alexis
If Vardy and Mikhtaryan do come in then it may see the end of Theo, the Ox or Campbell at Arsenal, quite probably two of them.
With Gibbs looking for a way out for more regular football and Rodriguez a possible replacement then big changes could be seen in a revamped squad.
If we sell Theo, Campbell and Gibbs then we have enough money for a CB as well.
After adding Xhaka competition for midfield places will be intense and peoples noses may be put out of joint. Interesting, exciting times.
Far East Gooner
Welcome to the pro Arsene Wenger site.
Recently the anti-Arsene brigade decided to hold a “Wenger out” demonstration at the Emirates. It was heralded as the moment when the Arsenal “supporters” would show just how much they wanted Arsene Wenger out.
It was estimated that no more than a thousand people demonstrated against the great man and the chants went out of “Only one Arsene Wenger” to silence those morons who thought they would show the world…they did and Arsene is as revered in this country as he is abroad. Nice to correspond with a Far East Gooner!!!
Thank you Tony Attwood for your article because you dealt with facts. Your analyses were ‘spot on’ and your comparisons of Arsenal’s history over the years give food for thought. Let us consider the ten-year period moving from Highbury to the Emerites; in that period Arsenal had to sell their best talent to their rivals and others. Another change, Wenger started developing young “English talent”-Walcott, Wiltshire and Chamberlain, however, their maturity in the game of football did not materialize. In the last four years since the arrival of Ozil, the club has moved upwards from fourth, to third, to second.This summer it appears that an injection of resources are afoot and that an overhaul is taking place.It may confuse some Arsenal supporters, whilst to others it may bring joy. It may even bring success to the club.
It is noteworthy that success is not guaranteed by spending large sums of money – The examples are before us:Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool and Hotspurs.
Thanks again Tony; I hope to purchase the five books published on Arsenal.
Patrick Nash.
Mathswash? , perhaps . Confirmation bias? , for sure.
From a serious issue with World-wide implications like global warming, when one half of political system in the USA refuses to accept the opinion of 99.9 scientists who base it on factual data , and instead rely on opinion of a handful of “scientists ” on a payroll of oil and gas industry, to something as trivial as the failed Suarez bid by Arsene Wenger from Liverpool.
There’s absolutely nothing in a way of evidence to sugest this was anything other than an honest bid for a player, yet still there are people on this very site who refuse to accept it ,mainly because it clashes with their idea of what Arsenal is or should stand for, versus what Suarez as a person is or stands for.
Despite of Arsene Wenger’s countless statements on the subject , including: ” they( Liverpool) refused to sell us Suarez, so why should I have any sympathy for them” , which he said during the Sterling saga, some find it impossible to accept the fact that Arsenal and Wenger wanted to buy a cheat and racist.
Much the same as with the issue of Arsenal spending power.
Despite of the evidence in the shape of Arsenal financial statements which are readily available to anyone and have been interpreted by the likes of “The Swiss Ramble” or AST, some Arsenal fans still believe Arsenal have hardly any mone available for transfers . Why ? , because if they had the funds, they surely would’ve spent it.
So when an unknown investment house CSS,published a report stating that Arsenal have only £4 m on transfers unless they use the £50m overdraft facility which has never been used , some jumped all over this news because it confirmed to their personally held beliefs rather than facts.
Human nature, I suppose.
There is one big thing wrong with only dealing in facts and that is that the debate is then won or lost and the blogs have nothing to talk about. Baseless opinion can go on and on and clicks can be maintained off into the future.
Drawing attention to yourself is the order of the day and painting yourself into an opinion defined corner, even if it is provably or at least logically wrong, doesn’t matter any more.
Sadly there is a danger that the joy of supporting a club is sucked out of you. It’s all best ignored – only read and believe the facts; ignore 95% of opinions. Walk away and stand somewhere else on the terrace.
@tunnygriffboy. It’s better not to mention any Arsenal player names we think the Boss should sell to avoid stepping on people’s toes.
Ofcourse Arsenal will have to sell some players whose standard of playing at Arsenal are no longer Arsenal top level standard or not even up to the required Arsenal standard. This selling of some Gunners has to happen to have the resources for bringing in new top targets to the squad. More so if it is true Arsenal have only £4m in the bank for transfer purposes. And will have to rely on drawing an over draft from their banks before they can sign any new target this summer.
Whao! The Boss must seriously in a state of lack of money to sign some targets he would normally have signed if this over draft story is true.
He has already signed Xhaka and the signing of Vardy is in the pipeline awaiting to come out. But it’s looking as if Vardy has resorted to be pulling harewire on his transfer to Arsenal as he was reported on the BBC Sports to have said, he’ll wait till late into Monday morning before deciding if he will join Arsenal or not.
With all the high expectations of his going to join Arsenal amongst the Gooners, vardy should please not disappoint us even if Leicester does match the weekly wages Arsenal have agreed to be paying him. Because he has gone too far into this transfer negotiation with Arsenal and he hasn’t suffered any misgivings in the negotiation but have his profile further raised. Therefore, there should be no turning back by him to join Arsenal.
@tunnygriffboy. It’s better not to mention any Arsenal player names we think the Boss should sell to avoid stepping on people’s toes.
Ofcourse Arsenal will have to sell some players whose standard of playing at Arsenal are no longer Arsenal top level standard or not even up to the required Arsenal standard. This selling of some Gunners has to happen to have the resources for bringing in new top targets to the squad. More so if it is true Arsenal have only £4m in the bank for transfer purposes. And will have to rely on drawing an over draft from their banks before they can sign any new target this summer. Whao!
The Boss must seriously in a state of lack of money to sign some targets he would normally have signed if this over draft story is true.
He has already signed Xhaka and the signing of Vardy is in the pipeline awaiting to come out. But it’s looking as if Vardy has resorted to be pulling harewire on his transfer to Arsenal as he was reported on the BBC Sports to have said, he’ll wait till late into Monday morning before deciding if he will join Arsenal or not.
With all the high expectations of his going to join Arsenal amongst the Gooners, vardy should please not disappoint us even if Leicester does match the weekly wages Arsenal have agreed to be paying him. Because he has gone too far into this transfer negotiation with Arsenal and he hasn’t suffered any misgivings in the negotiation but have his profile further raised. Therefore, there should be no turning back by him to join Arsenal.
Are we seriously signing Vardy!!
I cant believe this. If he continues to play like he did last season in ARSENAL colors, wonder how many red cards will he collect!!
ARSENAL 13 – June 6, 2016 at 5:36 am – Or he may ‘earn’ us back all those penalties we never got last season !
Dear Brickfields Gunners
Can you say wether the ‘BARTENDER’ was sited in any Divorce Paper’s or has he/she lived to tell the Tale?
Please enlighten Me, as this Incident could make Bartenders all over the world, become Endangered Species.
@ BennE June 6, 2016 at 7:04 am – I’d like to think that he survived this sudden rush of Bon homie ! After all, there would have been no real malice towards him . I don’t really think the wives would have harmed him either .
Unless it was a SHE !
This wedding supposedly happened in the Emerald Isle . Check out the obituary columns or for any new limericks !
Dear Brickfields Gunners.
Thank you for the swift reply, however in my humble opinion. the person who shouted the truly mischievous comment of ‘ All the married men please stand next to the one person who has made your life worth living’ should not attend another Wedding ever again. Otherwise this could signal the End of Mankind as we know it. I will checkout any news re; The Emerald Isle or New Limericks and inform you of any re-assurances.
@ BennE -June 6, 2016 at 1:10 pm – My head says that it was most likely this lady , but I really , really cannot be sure . Have a look , and you decide !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENARMPuU758