- How reporters endlessly knock Arsenal with false “where it all went wrong” tales
- Games against each other: the big seven
By Tony Attwood and a calculator
The two most reliable guides to form are the last six games of each club and the last ten games of each club. The last six games is the best model in the sense that it reflects the current form more accurately, but it also emphasises any short-term bonus or disruption to the club’s performance – thus for example rewarding a club that has had a few easy games.
The last ten games gives a better vision of how the club is doing, but of course things might have changed quite a lot since ten games ago, which for most clubs was taking us back to February 4 when Arsenal lost to Everton. However the last 10 table does normally include games against clubs at the top in the middle and at the bottom of the league.
So the projections that follow start with the number of games played and the points currently showing. The third column shows how many points the club has got in the last six games, and then the PG column turns that into points per game.
The next two columns do the same with the last ten games. Then the final columns give the points total based on the form of the last six and the last 10 games continuing to the end of the season.
Thus this sort of calculation is an alternative to the current spate of pundits saying, “I don’t think Arsenal will make it,” etc. It is not perfect and all sorts of things can go wrong, but there is more logic and sense in this than in the normal “I think” commentaries that we seem to get each day in the day.
But in case you don’t want to fight through all those figures the highlights are printed at the end in the form of league tables based on the last six and last ten games.
|Team||P||Pts||Last 6 Pts||Pts PG||Last 10 Pts||Pts PG||Final on last 6||final on last 10|
|6||Brighton and Hove Albion||27||46||11||1.83||19||1.9||66||67|
The final table is based on the form of the last six games remaining the same through the final matches of the season.
|Team||Final based on last 6||Final based on last 10|
|5||Brighton and Hove Albion||66||67|
So if either the form of the last six games or the last ten games continues, Arsenal will win the league. In fact, the same results come out whether we use the last six or the last ten games, throughout the table, except for the issue of the 5th and 6th positions.
There if we follow the last six games it will be a case of goal difference. On the basis of the last ten games, Brighton take fifth without recourse to goal difference calculations.
To resolve this, the goal difference of Tottenham Hotspur is +12, while that of Brighton and Hove is +17. So on these parameters, Brighton will take 5th and Tottenham 6th in both cases.
|6||Brighton and Hove Albion||27||13||7||7||51||34||17||46|
Liverpool’s form over the last six and the last ten games has been worse than Tottenham’s and Brighton’s so there is no need to work out their position at the end.
Indeed the form over the last ten games does throw up some interesting numbers: here’s the top of the table thanks to The Fishy website throughout.
|3||Brighton & Hove||10||5||4||1||19||9||10||19|
|10||West Ham Utd||10||3||3||4||11||15||-4||12|
The position of West Ham in tenth is interesting because they looked far worse than a team in that position in their last game. Which of course reminds us this is a prediction based on certain parameters. But at least it is a prediction based on something other than one man’s prejudice, which is what the newspapers usually quote.
No supercomputer was used in the writing of this article.
3 Replies to “The Form Table’s guide: who will win the league based on recent form?”
I can see where you are coming from with this, BUT, I think there is a crucial aspect of ‘last 6’ form you are over looking, and that is isolating home and away form, or more specifically home form, because we still have to play 3 of the top 6 performing home teams on their own patch.
This is the current Home Form table as it stands.
Pl W D L F A GD Pts
1 Arsenal………………..15 12 2 1 42 18 +24 38
2 Manchester City…….14 12 1 1 47 14 +33 37
3 Manchester Utd…….14 10 3 1 25 8 +17 33
4 Liverpool………………13 9 3 1 34 9 +25 30
5 Tottenham…………….14 10 0 4 29 16 +13 30
6 Newcastle Utd……….14 8 5 1 23 9 +14 29
Yes, we all know Liverpool are not what they were but never the less their home form is still formidable. Not only is their overall home form good but their ‘last 6’ home form is pretty good, as is Newcastle’s and of course Man City’s
Man City last 6 Homes: W-5 D-1 L-0
Liverpool last 6 Homes: W-5 D-1 L-0
Newcastle last 6 Homes: W-4 D-1 L-1
Excluding ourselves, we still have to visit 3 of the best 5 home teams.
A loss at City and a drew at both Liverpool and Newcastle would, in any other season, be perfectly acceptable results.
If we do that this season it will probably cost us the title.
Of course we could win all 3 but I’m sorry I just cant see it, despite how good we’ve been.
The fact is, whatever the last 6, last 10 tables show, our run in is tough, very tough.
the game is such that the other teams play themselves in some of the games as well and points will be lost here and there.
But, IMHO, this team has not reached acme and will keep on getting better every game.
And this title is still theirs to win. They have bonded, are a real team, a familly. They have hunger. And belief. They know that they can be unbeatable.
And Mr Arteta has shown time and again he is capable of optimising the team to each opponent. And at some point City will be beaten. Hopefully this spring.
Again, as I have said before I do admire, even envy your optimism. I think you said the other day that you are by nature a glass half full type of guy. As a rule in ‘normal’ life I think I’m in the middle. I think if I was to pigeonhole myself I would say I’m a realist.
But, with regard to Arsenal I am a realist erring on the side of over enthusiastic pessimist. I just cant help myself.
When I did an analysis a month or so ago I said that if we are 4 – 0 up with 5 minutes to go I somehow still manage to visualise us getting a player sent off, scoring 2 own goals and conceding 2 penalties. That’s not to mention the season ending injury to our centre forward and the 3 points deduction for wearing red and white shirts.
So, I will happily bow to your irrepressible positivity.
Mind you, I’ll still be hiding behind the sofa come half past four on Sunday afternoon.