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By Bulldog Drummond
The media is of course at this moment full of journalists telling us what is going to happen in the months to come, and it made me wonder what the opening games of a season actually do tell us.
So I dug out the league table after four games last season, and then noted where each club ended up at the end of the season.
The biggest rises between the fourth game and the final table were for Aston Villa (up eight places) and Wolverhampton (up six) followed by Manchester United (up five) The biggest declines after a positive start were Leeds (down 14 places) and Southampton (down seven) followed by Chelsea (down six).
In other words the league table after four games needs to be taken with caution. 11 clubs (ie just over half) were within one or two places of where they finally ended up, but the other nine moved anything from three places to 14. Here’s the table after four games last season, with the clubs’ final league position and a note of whether they went up or down at the end
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | Final pos | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 2 | -1 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 1 | +1 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 8 | -5 |
| 4 | Brighton and Hove | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 6 | -2 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 | -14 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 | 12 | -6 |
| 7 | Newcastle United | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +3 |
| 8 | Manchester United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 | 3 | +5 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 5 | +4 |
| 10 | Brentford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 9 | +1 |
| 11 | Fulham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 10 | +1 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 | 11 | +1 |
| 13 | Southampton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 | 20 | -7 |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 | 16 | -2 |
| 15 | Aston Villa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 | 7 | +8 |
| 16 | West Ham United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3 | 14 | +2 |
| 17 | AFC Bournemouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 16 | -14 | 3 | 15 | +2 |
| 18 | Everton | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 | 17 | +1 |
| 19 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 13 | +6 |
| 20 | Leicester City | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 1 | 18 | +2 |
So the top two at the end of the season were also the top two after four games, but the three relegated clubs were 5th, 13th and 20th after four games, giving very little indication of where they would end up.
Equally goal difference was not a reliable indicator. Tottenham had a goal difference of +6 after four games, but ended up with just +7 after 38 games.
What’s more neither these figures nor the final league table really help us understand what the Athletic in an amusing article calls the Hope-o-meter.
To put it in perspective this is what they say: “…we ask our subscribers a very simple question: how are you feeling? There are two options, optimistic and pessimistic.”
Here are the figures – what we have is the positive feeling in the club this summer, compared with that of last summer. And then the league position for last season, followed by the change in hope.
| Club | Summer 2023 hope | Summer 2022 hope | 2022/3 league pos | Change in hope over 12 months |
| Arsenal. | 90% | 97% | 2 | -7% |
| Tottenham | 79% | 97% | 7 | -18% |
| Newcastle | 91% | 96% | 4 | -5% |
| Manchester City | 83% | 96% | 1 | -13% |
| Crystal Palace | 38% | 94% | 11 | -56% |
| Nottingham For | 51% | 94% | 16 | -43% |
| Brighton | 95% | 93% | 6 | +2% |
| Liverpool | 52% | 86% | 5 | -34% |
| Aston Villa | 99% | 85% | 7 | +14% |
| Man United | 89% | 72% | 3 | +17% |
| Everton | 26% | 36% | 17 | -10% |
| Chelsea | 92% | 33% | 12 | +59% |
| Bournemouth | 97% | 27% | 15 | +70% |
So let’s look at the clubs where the hope level shot upwards. There are just five of them
- Bournemouth +70%
- Chelsea +59%
- Manchester United +17%
- Aston Villa +14%
- Brighton and Hove +2%
Bournemouth have a new manager, Andoni Iraola, who was previously with Rayo Vallecano, Madrid’s fourth team, after Real, Atletico and Getafe. He took them up to the top division in 2021, and then into the semi-finals of the national cup – a pretty amazing achievement given that Rayo’s stadium is just fractionally larger than Bournemouth’s.
Chelsea. Potter, Saltor, Lampard, Pocettino – those are the Chelsea managers in the last 12 months, so I guess that the positive vibes are because no one can imagine things getting worse than finishing 12th, 40 points and 50 goals behind Arsenal.
Manchester United came third, but they won their last four league matches last season so maybe that is the source of the optimism. But those last games were against Wolverhampton, Bournemouth, Chelsea and Fulham, and three of those were at home. Prior to that they lost to Brighton and West Ham. I am really not sure about that optimism.
On the other hand they have spent over £150m on three big name signings, so maybe that’s it.
Aston Villa now have a 99% positivity rating from their fans, who have clearly taken to Unai Emery – and they have spent £80m on a couple of new players this summer. They were 14th in the league two seasons ago, and 7th last season, so maybe the optimism is for a rise into the Europa places.
Brighton’s positivity is so small at 2%, probably because they have achieved so much more than ever before that it is hard to imagine it getting better. For their first four years in the Premier League they finished between 15th and 17th. Two years ago they finished ninth, last season they were sixth; I doubt they can believe it can get better!
And so to Arsenal who are sixth in the optimism chart on 90%, equal with Luton Town! One year ago they were top of the chart on 97% equal with Tottenham who have now slumped to 79%. I guess it can be hard to imagine that Arsenal can get even better and/or Manchester City get worse; but maybe that 83% optimism for Manchester City down by 13% should give us hope.
But finally spare a thought for Palace – their optimism has dropped by over half! Is that a vote of no confidence in Hodgson?
Tony
We predicted a good season last season, Untold predicting 3rd and I had a bet on us finishing in the top 2, on the basis of how we performed over the final two thirds of the 2021/22 season.
As such, this may be why Manchester Utd fans are so optimistic. As I showed before this is how the last 2/3rds of last season panned out for what are expected to be the main protagonists.
Arsenal 53
Man Utd 52
Liverpool 51
Newcastle 50
On that basis they have every right to be optimistic, as do Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle and of course Manchester City, despite their falls in optimism.
Now as you used the last 6 matches to suggest their optimism may be a little misguided having won 4 and lost 2, I thought I’d see how our last 6 matches panned out at the end of 21/22. Guess what? We won 4 and lost 2. Exactly the same.
You know me Tony, while I was at it I thought I’d compared our last 12 matches in 22 to United’s last 12 in 23, and this is what I found.
Arsenal won 6 and lost 6
Man Utd won 8 Drew 2 and lost 3
So, if how you finish the previous season is anything to go bay, as it certainly was for us, then Man Utd fans do indeed have every right to at least have some optimism about the coming season.
But on the other hand, quite why Chelsea fans are so optimistic is beyond me.
Chelsea’s last two thirds points total was 23, under half of all the others looked at.
Chelsea’s last 6 games were, Won 1 Drew 2 Lost 3
Chelsea’s last 12 games were, Won 1 Drew 4 Lost 7
Okay, I suppose it depends what they are being ‘optimistic’ about.
If they are ‘optimistic; about doing better than last season fair enough. They could hardly do any worse. But if they are optimistic about challenging for the title then it begs the question, why??
If how you finish the season before is indeed any indication of things to come, then Chelsea are more likely to be in a relegation battle than even a top 4 fight.
Doh, always something:
Man Utd won 8 DREW 1 (not 2) and lost 3 Sorry